In The News

David Finkelstein writes, “For months, all eyes have been on the high-level personnel turmoil in the Chinese military. Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu has not been seen in public for weeks, raising questions about whether he still holds his position.”

Samuel Bendett says, “It’s a revolution in terms of placing this precision guided capacity in the hands of regular people for a tiny fraction of the cost of the destroyed target.”

Samuel Bendett says, ” Once the Russian military got its act together, it was able to down many TB2s.” 

Samuel Bendett says, “Ukrainians are continuing to make their advances in the south slowly but surely. This is a very tactical-level fight right now, and both forces are digging into the ground. As we have mentioned earlier, Russians have built a lot of fortifications, but no physical obstacle is insurmountable. “

Samuel Bendett says, “Ukrainians have reached some of those fortifications and continue their slow advance through them. Of course this leads to the question as to whether or not this is the breakthrough that everyone was waiting for. Everybody is exercising caution and trying to analyze this simply because Russian defenses in the south are so prevalent and well-organized.”

Jonathan Schroden says a surveillance system would be "useful for the Taliban as it seeks to prevent groups like the Islamic State ... from attacking Taliban members or government positions in Kabul."

Samuel Bendett says, "If this strike happened as it did, it probably confirms that this particular drone may have been operated by Russia's Special Forces, who are Lancet's regular users."

Samuel Bendett says, “Controlling Crimea is essential if Russia wants to maintain its war effort and to keep Ukraine off balance and to maintain its positions in the territories it already captured.”

Dmitry Gorenburg says “While they can definitely hit targets from Novorossiysk, it’s farther away, so the more distant targets are out of reach. Plus, the number of missile carriers has been reduced somewhat with the elimination of the Kilo sub. So not a game-changer in terms of capability, but definitely a reduction.”

Michael Kofman says there’s “a realistic possibility of Ukrainian forces breaking through Russian lines,” as “the momentum has picked up and the dynamic has somewhat changed in the last couple of weeks.” But even he cautions that war “isn’t a parlor game where one can gamble and easily predict outcomes.”

Samuel Bendett says that he believes Russian forces had a limited number of these UAVs, with plans to significantly ramp up production in 2023.

The bipartisan leadership of the Afghanistan War Commission today announced the appointment of Dr. Jonathan Schroden as Research Director. 

Samuel Bendett says, “Ultimately the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un served to reinforce Russia’s alliances. Russia is taking significant measures to demonstrate to its allies around the world like Iran and China and North Korea that it is still a viable partner, and this meeting resulted in a potential transfer of a larger number of key artillery shells and munitions to the Russian military.”

Dmitry Gorenburg says, "While the specific strike will have an impact on [Black Sea Fleet] operations, the larger impact is cumulative. Overall, I see Russia's control over the Black Sea slipping gradually."

Michael Kofman says, "The operating conditions don't permit effective massing of forces, and the enablers aren't there to support it. If the Russian military is worn down and they have no additional reserves to throw into the fight, it could put the Russian forces in a precarious position."

Samuel Bendett says that Russia's defense systems are not geared toward identifying small drones.