In The News

Samuel Bendett says, “Ultimately the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un served to reinforce Russia’s alliances. Russia is taking significant measures to demonstrate to its allies around the world like Iran and China and North Korea that it is still a viable partner, and this meeting resulted in a potential transfer of a larger number of key artillery shells and munitions to the Russian military.”

Dmitry Gorenburg says, "While the specific strike will have an impact on [Black Sea Fleet] operations, the larger impact is cumulative. Overall, I see Russia's control over the Black Sea slipping gradually."

Michael Kofman says, "The operating conditions don't permit effective massing of forces, and the enablers aren't there to support it. If the Russian military is worn down and they have no additional reserves to throw into the fight, it could put the Russian forces in a precarious position."

Samuel Bendett says that Russia's defense systems are not geared toward identifying small drones.

Samuel Bendett says “USV tactics are constantly changing to inflict the most probable damage on Russian naval assets that also include stationary targets like bridges. So far, parts of Russia’s navy—such as those in Crimea—are adapting better to this threat than others.”

Ken Gause says, "They can't go overboard in terms of the defense stuff in Northeast Asia because it can have negative effects on what they're doing in the world," including Beijing's global Belt and Road Initiative.

Samuel Bendett says, "The real impact of this ban on the Russian market mostly boils down to the jump in prices for existing and available Chinese drones in and components already in Russia."

Steven Wills says, “I think they've just lost all initiative,” referring to the Russian naval ambitions. “Whatever plans they originally had, they immediately abandoned them and they've gone into garrison, hunker down mode.”

Dmitry Gorenburg says, “[The Ukrainians] know they're not going to destroy Black Sea Fleet headquarters with a drone. But by attacking every so often, they keep everyone kind of discombobulated and stressed.”

Samuel Bendett says, “The Russians have had time to dig in and prepare massive amounts of fortifications. The Russians have learned a lot from their mistakes last year, and they have learned a lot from the Ukrainian’s successes.”

Elizabeth Wishnick says “It was a shocking display. This kind of stunt puts China in a difficult spot and tarnishes its so-called neutral image and its support of sovereignty.”

Samuel Bendett says, “The general assessment of drones like TB2 is that they work well without sophisticated air and electronic warfare defenses arrayed against them.”

Samuel Bendett says, “Shahed strikes have become a relatively cheap way for the Russian military to stress Ukrainian defences and to force the Ukrainian military to expend valuable ammunition shooting them down.”

Samuel Bendett says, “The ultimate goal right now, largely influenced by Ukraine, is to make the interactions between the operator and the drone as efficient as possible.”

Bryce Peterson says, “When escapes do happen, it is often because there was some sort of security lapse  some protocol was not followed.”

Bryce Peterson says that prison breakouts are more frequent than the public realizes. He emphasized the lack of data on escapes from custody, but he added that the limited data available indicate that well over 90% of people who escape are eventually recaptured.

Bryce Peterson says that so-called escapes from custody are much more common than most people may think, and probably happen every single day. Lots of those cases likely involve people walking away from minimum security facilities or not returning from work release at their designated time.