In The News

David Finkelstein says, “ I was not surprised by the fact that the Chinese are doing this and may have done it again in the past, as the statement said, because that's what countries do. They surveil each other.”

Sam Plapinger writes, “How does urban warfare in Ukraine, where the adversaries are relatively balanced nation-states, differ from recent Fallujah- or Mosul-type battles between states and non-state armed groups?”

Samuel Bendett says, "They aren't necessarily going to be ready for the very complicated environment of a Ukraine battle space."

Dmitry Gorenburg says, "Some Western commentators have suggested that this is related to some kind of effort by Prigozhin to position himself as a successor to Putin, but this is ludicrous. What is actually going on is an effort to increase influence among the top leadership—in other words, by appearing more useful to Putin.”

Samuel Bendett says, “This would be a first combat deployment for the Marker UGV, and yes, it wasn’t really tested in combat conditions before. It was tested in a rather controlled environment, even when it had to navigate autonomously through a forested environment in late 2021. There is of course a possibility of a classified series of tests that could have taken place, but as far as all info about this UGV, there was no real combat stress test.”

Samuel Bendett says, “What’s interesting is that Marker was always presented as a proof of concept, a flagship project for [general AI artificial intelligence] applications.”

Michael Kofman says, “Heading into 2023, Ukraine no longer has a manpower advantage and difficulties lie ahead.”

Samuel Bendett says, “When it comes to this war in Ukraine, it is truly the competent use of quadcopters for a variety of tasks, including for artillery and mortar units, that has really made this cheap, available, expendable (unmanned aerial vehicle), very lethal and very dangerous.”

Jonathan Schroden says, “When combined with the Taliban’s need for money and extant smuggling networks, that reservoir poses a substantial threat to regional actors for years to come.”

Jonathan Schroden says, “Why would they give them up?” “They'd be giving up the bulk of their air capacity, and I just don't see it being in the Taliban interests to do that.”

Steve Wills says, “If one sailor fails to keep their beard trimmed, has to put on a gas mask or respirator in an emergency and later dies, the amount of anger directed against Navy leadership will be immense.”

Samuel Bendett says, “It appears that most of the existing Markers, 3 out of 5, will in fact be tested in Ukraine, and can be lost in combat. It also appears that Android Technology is actually ok with that, indicating a willingness to respond to the [Ministry of Defense] needs for improved weapons and tactics, and perhaps indicating that the company is working on other projects that can build on the Marker experience.”

Jeffrey Becker says, “Since at least 2017, with the establishment of China’s first overseas base in Djibouti, the PLA, the People’s Liberation Army, has continued to expand its overseas footprint.”

Jeffrey Edmonds says, “The real challenge with giving the Ukrainians M1A1 tanks is not fuel but maintenance. Each system on the tank, from the turbine engine to the complex sights used by the gunner, is complex, requiring numerous intricate parts to function properly.”

Jeffrey Edmonds says, “I think this is significant. These are more complex, have higher firepower, more maneuverability than the tanks the Ukrainians have been using. And given the number of vehicles lost by both sides, this will bolster their maneuver forces.”

Samuel Bendett says, “Russia has a lot of volunteer efforts building small quadcopters and other small UAVs. For example, there was a recent state media article praising soldiers for putting together their own ISR [Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance] quadcopter. Compared to the overall Ukrainian effort, Russian efforts are probably still smaller in scale and some of these efforts started later than their Ukrainian counterparts.”