In The News

Elizabeth Wishnick says that in Kazakhstan, a recent study showed China as the least preferred partner. "That doesn't mean Kazakhstan is not going to engage with China. It will, but unwillingly, leave opportunities for others."

Michael Kofman says, “Replenished troops, trained and armed with Western equipment, should have the advantage. “It is difficult to say how much of that force will really be ready. Of course, that depends on the actual timing of this offensive.”

Dmitry Gorenburg says that he suspects it has less to do with security threats and more to do with concerns about unauthorized expressions of grief for those who have died in the current war against Ukraine.

Samuel Bendett says, “The Russian military essentially said we are moving on from this to more important topics and this was really not discussed in length or particular detail even across Russian telegram channels.”

Samuel Bendett says that all this “shows the Russian government's concern that young people may not be willing to be drafted, considering many that left the country at this point, and considering much open-source reporting from the front via social media like Telegram, which shows brutal, WW2-style fighting in Ukraine with heavy casualties.”

Michael Kofman says, “Most elite units are deployed elsewhere along the front.”

Steven Wills says on a recent episode of CNA Talks Podcast, "One can argue that Kaliningrad is sort of a fortress sitting on the Baltic, with lots of cruise missiles and other weaponry, so it remains threatening."

Samuel Bendett says that the “Russians are very concerned that Ukrainians have the advantage” when it comes to the FPV drones, worried that a large number will be used to support a Ukrainian counteroffensive, and that Moscow may not have enough pilots or technological know-how to keep up.

Michael Kofman says that supplying Ukraine with enough equipment to hold off a Russian offensive is one thing. It's another for allies to be able to provide enough equipment "to attain a decisive advantage over Russian forces."

Samuel Bendett says, “Ukraine is a unique battle space right now with so many technologies getting tested, getting evaluated, getting used. Both from the military official channels and organically through the help of volunteers and soldiers themselves.”

Michael Kofman says, “Whether these documents are authentic or not, people should take care with anything released by Russian sources.”

Ken Gause says, “That [report] basically undermines any chance of inter-Korean dialogue for the foreseeable future. It definitely does not help the tensions on the peninsula. … If anything, North Korea’s going to accelerate its nuclear program.”

Jeremy Sepinsky says, “Winning is the wrong way to look at wargaming. If you win a war game, you have discovered one potential way of success among an infinite number of choices that all must follow that exact alignment for your success to be realized.”

Samuel Bendett says, “Essentially, the CUAS [counter-unmanned aerial systems] costs have to be driven down to the most cost-effective and workable solution — which the Ukrainians note is a mobile gun truck capable of taking out Shaheds.”

Samuel Bendett says that the U.S. has primarily sent existing technology. It was unclear whether the U.S. had ever sent a weapon that was created from scratch for use specifically in Ukraine.

David Broyles [at the Sea-Air-Space conference] said, “At the end of the day we have engineers and programmers building these systems. What do they do when they are designing the systems” to match the mission and goals?