In The News

: Samuel Bendett wrote on social media, “The reality is that Ukraine is constantly imposing high costs on the Russian Navy by launching small, cheap USVs against ships and port facilities. Defending against such attacks means constant state of awareness and high-levels of stress.”

Samuel Bendett says, "The cost of manufacturing and fielding these vehicles is considerably less — many magnitudes less — than the cost of trying to defend against them and just basic resource allocation in trying to interdict and destroy these assets."

Samuel Bendett says, "How do you defend a long bridge like that? Where do you place your defenses? Do you fly patrols around it? Do you install sensors on it all the time? Do you have maritime patrols all the time? It's difficult to properly and completely defend an asset as large as a bridge like that."

Samuel Bendett says that however, they would still be able to "do significant damage" and it may be that larger boats have been used without being detected, he said. Although there are sensors and cameras attached to the bridge, it is difficult to monitor the maritime and aerial environment surrounding it.

Samuel Bendett says "that however, they would still be able to "do significant damage" and it may be that larger boats have been used without being detected." Although there are sensors and cameras attached to the bridge, it is difficult to monitor the maritime and aerial environment surrounding it.

Samuel Bendett says, “We talked about the difficulties of Ukrainian counter offensive in the face of Russia’s growing defenses and their entrenched positions. Russia has had time to develop a lot of these defensive trenches that stretch for 100s of kilometers basically along the entirety of the front. We talked earlier that it would be difficult to storm these well-fortified positions.”

Sebastian Bae writes, "Wargaming today, by contrast, risks becoming the exclusive domain of select officers and leadership within the Beltway. And when wargaming is concentrated in a handful of select institutions, it increasingly becomes susceptible to the historical boom and bust cycle where benefits and experience can be quickly lost."

Bryce Peterson says that many of the escapees also appear to have the motivation to run, saying inmates serving long sentences or facing serious charges like murder "are the most likely to escape."

Samuel Bendett says, “We knew there would be some kind of government response; Putin and the Kremlin had to respond to the insurrection one way or another. There would have to be some type of internal investigation, and clearly, because it was demonstrated that all Wagner forces joined this insurrection, there has to be some kind of investigation into what actually transpired.”

“At the Center for Naval Analyses, we recently demonstrated how Canada, Norway, Russia, and the United States all use their own foreign direct investment screening laws to scrutinize and block investments from China at odds with national security,” writes Cornell Overfield.

"Providing cluster munitions to Ukraine, at this stage, could have a significant impact beyond what other capabilities might achieve,” says Michael Kofman.

"If Russia wants to do something covert with Iran, this is an advantageous location. It’s on the river that flows into the Volga, so you can bring parts by ship from Iran covertly," writes Samuel Bendett. 

Michael Kofman says that precision warfare can counter some advantages of mass: Ukraine was outnumbered 12 to one north of Kyiv. It can also complement mass. Software-based targeting saves around 15-30% in shells, according to sources familiar with the data. But what precision cannot do, is substitute for mass.  

Michael Kofman says, “I suspect the way Moscow hopes this will play out is the commanders will move to Belarus and then possibly decamp for operations in Africa. Meanwhile, they will try to get back Wagner’s heavy equipment, and then figure out how to use the rank and file that chooses to stay.”

Michael Kofman says “Prigozhin’s mutiny was ultimately a desperate act of someone who was cornered,” said Michael Kofman, director of Russia Studies at Virginia-based research group CNA. “His options were narrowing as his bitter dispute intensified.”

Dmitry Gorenburg, Elizabeth Wishnick, Paul Schwarts and Brian Waidelich write, "there is widespread consensus among analysts that, although Russia and China have been moving toward closer cooperation through the entire post-Soviet era, the trend has accelerated rapidly since 2014."