In The News
Russia's vaunted second offensive is a damp squibThe Economist | 27 Feb 2023
Michael Kofman says that the rest [of the mobilized troops] have probably been used to fill out under-strength battalions and build a reserve to rotate front-line units out of Ukraine.
China considers sending Russia artillery shells, U.S. officials sayWashington Post | 26 Feb 2023
Michael Kofman says, "Over the past year, Russian forces in Ukraine leveraged their advantage in artillery to make up for a lack of manpower. But they were expending more than half a million shells per month."
The key trends to watch in the Russia-Ukraine warNPR | 25 Feb 2023
Michael Kofman says, "Neither of these armies look today the way they did at the beginning of the war. Both have taken heavy losses. Both have lost a lot of their best people and best equipment."
Naval warfare poised to play smaller role in year 2 of Ukraine warBreaking Defense | 24 Feb 2023
Dmitry Gorenburg says, "The Russian navy has been left to, basically, just firing occasional precision guided missiles at energy infrastructure and that sort of thing in Ukraine."
Cornell Overfield says, “I would be surprised if Russia had not explored the re-base loophole, and that they didn’t use it/floated it unsuccessfully speaks volumes to me.”
Analysis Al is reshaping warfare - but regulations must follow suitInnovation Origins | 24 Feb 2023
Samuel Bendett says, “Prior to February 2022, Russian military academia was full of logical, interesting, and relevant analysis on the evolution of AI across the world’s military forces. Yet, there is a huge gap between what they say about AI and the war they have ended up fighting.”
'Putin Still Believes Russia Will Prevail'Foreign Policy | 23 Feb 2023
Michael Kofman says, " The Russian military is still far too weak. It has restored a lot of the manpower deficit they had and replenished the military in terms of the losses they suffered, in terms of personnel, but the quality of the force is very low.”
How and When the War in Ukraine Will EndAtlantic.com - The Wire | 23 Feb 2023
Michael Kofman says, "A change in leadership will not necessarily lead Moscow to end the war."
Putin leaving nuclear treaty is a reminder that he has—and can use—nuclear bombsLA Times | 23 Feb 2023
Jeffrey Edmonds says, "I don't know that it means Russia is going to suddenly run off and start producing a tremendous number of ICBMs."
Putinology: the art of analyzing the man in the KremlinNPR | 23 Feb 2023
Michael Kofman says, "The field of Russian military studies had almost died or was on life support, so I found myself in many respects trying to ... work to help revive the field."
Three Reasons Most Analysts Were Wrong on War in UkraineVOA | 22 Feb 2023
Michael Kofman says, "I think we were never seriously asked how the war could look if the U.S. truly backed Ukraine."
Russia, Ukraine showcase loitering munitions at IDEX arms fairDefense News | 20 Feb 2023
Samuel Bendett says, “Of the two loitering munitions, it is the Lancet that has practically dominated Russian headlines and is discussed in large numbers as a key Russian capability — not the KYB.”
How Ukraine uses high-tech anti-drone guns to down Russian drones and recover intelligence from themBusiness Insider | 18 Feb 2023
Samuel Bendett says, "As to their effectiveness, it's hard to judge that based on limited open-source evidence we get. Both sides want it and decry the lack of this technology in large numbers."
Crimean Tatars long to return to a liberated CrimeaThe World | 17 Feb 2023
Jeffrey Edmonds says, “They can certainly shell the peninsula if they got close enough, but it would be very hard militarily to take it.”
Ukraine is burning ammunition faster than the US and NATO can produce. This is the Pentagon's plan to close the gapCNN | 17 Feb 2023
Michael Kofman says, “The war is highly dependent on defense industrial production, and these are critical investments that the United States and ultimately Ukraine will benefit from, but the question is whether they were made too late to affect what could be decisive phases of the conflict this year.”
When will the war in Ukraine end? Experts offer their predictions.Defense News | 13 Feb 2023
Michael Kofman says, “Wars typically tend to go on longer than people expect or hope, but especially interstate conflicts of this length. History tells us that wars which go on this long … are likely to become protracted, lasting several years.”
Tailor-Made Shaheds: Iranian Drones Are Being Modified To Russian SpecificationsForbes | 12 Feb 2023
Samuel Bendett says, "This modified type of warhead can leave a lot of damage in its wake in a strike on a civilian energy installation, making repairs difficult and lengthy, thereby increasing the impact of each drone that gets through Ukrainian defenses."