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russian media analysis: Issue 1, October 10, 2021

/our-media/newsletters/russian-media-analysis/issue-1

to rising Israeli-Iranian tensions. Relations between Iran and Azerbaijan have deteriorated in recent weeks, particularly due to Iranian claims that Israel has a military presence inside Azerbaijan

AI Autonomy in Russia A Years Reflection

/reports/2022/09/ai-autonomy-in-russia-a-years-reflection

The outlook for military AI and autonomy in Russia appears to have weakened since 2021, due to brain drain and sanctions related to the Russia-Ukraine war.

drones that are supposed to deliver significant additional aerial combat capability. The fact that Russia may be turning to Iran for military drones exposes fundamental problems with acquiring

North Korea A Case Study of Asymmetric Relations

/reports/2021/10/north-korea-a-case-study-of-asymmetric-relations

Examining North Korea as a case study for asymmetric relations and the issue of its nuclear weapons development as the threat to status quo in the international order.

campaigns from the last few US administrations have found mixed success with asymmetrically weaker powers. Under President Barack Obama, pressure helped pave the way for a deal to slow and cap Iran’s

The Psychology of Disinformation Case Studies

/reports/2021/10/the-psychology-of-disinformation-case-studies

The absorption and spread of disinformation is a pervasive phenomenon across a wide variety of topics and media. Most disinformation research focuses on the source (who created it?) and the environment in which it exists (what platform/medium transmits the information?). Recognizing that disinformation primarily works in an individual person’s mind, this report describes four normal, routine psychological mechanisms that are associated with the absorption and spread of disinformation. We then describe real-world case studies—focusing on activities linked to COVID-19, and to campaigns coordinated by US adversaries including Russia, China, and Iran—to illustrate the way these mechanisms can be manipulated to aid the spread disinformation. The report concludes with multi-pronged recommendations that DOD can use to address the vulnerabilities associated with these psychological mechanisms so as prevent the spread of disinformation and protect both US servicemembers and the country.

of disinformation. We then describe real-world case studies—focusing on activities linked to COVID-19, and to campaigns coordinated by US adversaries including Russia, China, and Iran—to illustrate the way

Maintaining the US led International Order

/reports/2020/06/maintaining-the-us-led-international-order

Maritime security operations sustain and enforce the rule of law and good order at sea. Yet in an era of great power competition (GPC), do those activities support national strategy? This paper offers a structure for answering that question, placing maritime security in the context of GPC by describing competition as a function of control for the international system. The framework introduced in this paper demonstrates that maritime security is an important component of maintaining a system that benefits US security and prosperity. The framework also shows that there are two roles for maritime security in GPC—avoiding corrosion of the US-led system by great powers and avoiding corrosion caused by lesser powers. These two approaches have different implications for Navy deployment, procurement, and employment policy. Consequently, although our analysis suggests that maritime security is integral to GPC, its roles can vary, pulling resources in divergent directions according to policy priorities.

are a strategy’s adversaries, which are described nd categorized differently over time. Presently, US strategy differentiates among great powers (China and Russia) and lesser powers (Iran, North Korea

cna talks: The Iran Protests and Crackdown

/our-media/podcasts/cna-talks/2022/11/the-iran-protests-and-crackdown

Analysis of the impact of the women-led protests since the death of Mahsa Amini in the custody of the morality police. Is this a new Iranian Revolution led by women?

The Iran Protests and Crackdown Analysis of the impact of the women-led protests since the death of Mahsa Amini in the custody of the morality police. Is this a new Iranian Revolution led by women? The Iran Protests and Crackdown Featuring:   Dr. Michael Connell , Principal Research Scientist,   Strategy, Policy, Plans, and Programs Division , CNA  and Nazee Moinian, Non-Resident Scholar, Iran Program, Middle East Institute Moderated by:   Nilanthi Samaranayake , Director,   Strategy and Policy Analysis Program , CNA With Introductions by:   Halleh Seyson , Vice President

What Does Lebanon's New Government Mean for the U.S.?

/our-media/indepth/2020/02/what-does-lebanons-new-government-mean-for-the-u.s

For the first time in months, U.S. officials now have a functioning Lebanese cabinet they can work with as the two countries face a range of problems.

officials now have a functioning Lebanese cabinet they can work as the two countries face a range of problems: ongoing instability in the region, U.S. tensions with Iran, Lebanon’s failing economy and an ISIS resurgence in the Levant. Some ISIS networks fled to Lebanon after operations by the Syrian military and its allies Iran and Hezbollah. ISIS retains significant latent capability and thrives ... are worryingly close to Hezbollah. That raises concerns about Iranian influence, threats to Israel and whether the new prime minister might help Iran and Russia to prop up the Assad regime in Syria

China’s Belt and Road Loses a Notch and Gains a Bump

/our-media/indepth/2022/05/chinas-belt-and-road-loses-a-notch-and-gains-a-bump

Elizabeth Wishnick explains how the Russia-Ukraine war has affected China’s Belt and Road Initiative and hurt China’s relationships in Central Europe.

, the Caspian Sea region, Iran, and Turkey. This route has been relatively underdeveloped and terminals are not large enough now to accommodate trade redirected from the New Eurasian Land Bridge. Alternatively, China may focus on developing the Maritime Silk Road, especially cooperation with Iran and Pakistan. Each of these options has its own challenges, however. China’s regional rival India has long been investing in Iran, which also signed a 25-year cooperation agreement with China, with a special focus on its Chabahar Port. Interest by both India and China could help foster regional

What China's Ukraine Position Paper Tells Us

/our-media/indepth/2023/03/what-chinas-ukraine-position-paper-tells-us

Elizabeth Wishnick examines China’s position paper on the Russia-Ukraine war, and what it tells us about how Beijing uses diplomacy to advance its interests.

. Now that China is portraying itself as a global peacemaker , taking credit for encouraging Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore their diplomatic relations, will ending the war in Ukraine be next? One year ... , but the document also points to vulnerabilities that preoccupy Chinese officials in the event of a future conflict . With respect to Iran and Saudi Arabia, China facilitated what the two ... of territorial gains. What we see clearly in both cases, however, is how China uses diplomacy to promote its own interests— in the case of Iran and Saudi Arabia, preventing enmity between two key energy

Implications of the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan

/our-media/indepth/2021/10/implications-of-us-withdrawal-from-afghanistan

The end of the Afghan conflict—and the manner in which it ended—is significant, but it will take time for its implications to come into focus.

. Even Iran, no friend to the Sunni-extremist Taliban (which kidnapped and killed Iranian diplomats in the 1990s), and which has fought ISIS in Iraq and Syria and supported the U.S.-backed government ... predicted. There could be more terrorist attacks. Iran could go nuclear. Other bad things could happen, such as the collapse of another unstable country or escalating conflict between Iran, its proxies