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Your search for Deterrence found 68 results.

NATO Ally Contributions to the Space Domain

/reports/2021/10/nato-ally-contributions-to-the-space-domain

The emphasis U.S. NATO allies place on space operations presents multiple avenues for the U.S. and its NATO allies to increase and expand capabilities across a range of military space capabilities.

, declaring it on par with the air, land, sea, and cyber domains. Space is now recognized as “essential to the Alliance’s defense and deterrence.” This recognition is intended to make it easier for NATO

Reimagining Defense Strategy

/reports/2021/10/reimagining-defense-strategy

This event continued a conversation begun at CNA’s September 16, 2021, National Security Seminar, titled “Planning for Tomorrow’s Threats: Overcoming Obstacles to Organize, Adapt, and Innovate.” In this event, we heard insights on defense strategy from Christian Brose, Chief Strategy Officer of Anduril Industries, a defense technology company. Mr. Brose shared his perspective as a former staff director of the Senate Armed Services Committee under Chairman John McCain. He is also the author of The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare. Dr. Carter Malkasian, from CNA, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The event was recorded and is available online.

 and the ability to generate deterrence: that is, convincing an opponent of their inability to secure objectives by disrupting their capacity to sense, decide, and act. In the book, Brose argues that the US

Prevailing Under the Nuclear Shadow

/reports/2020/09/prevailing-under-the-nuclear-shadow

The United States has characterized today’s geopolitical environment as a “long-term, strategic competition between nations.” This competition includes renewed emphasis on the role of nuclear weapons in international affairs by the nucleararmed competitors of the US—Russia, China, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). These adversaries view competition with the US as having a nuclear dimension that is not confined to high-end warfare. Accordingly, the US must anticipate that nuclear weapons will play a central role in a regional conflict with any of these opponents. This reality underscores the importance of preparing policy-makers to manage escalation during a conflict taking place under the nuclear shadow. The use of nuclear weapons in a war between the US and its allies and Russia, China, or the DPRK would be not only militarily significant, but would also have major political and normative consequences. Yet practical concepts for escalation management are lacking in the post-Cold War, contemporary great power context. To fill that gap, this report proposes foundational elements for a nuclear escalation management framework. This novel framework leverages key concepts from escalation theory and risk management literature to create a structured, analytical process for US policy-makers and planners to evaluate potential courses of action (COAs) that could be employed to achieve favorable escalation management with nucleararmed competitors.

, irrespective of the adversary or scenario. They are: 1. Deterrence operations. 2. Employment of military force. 3. Messaging. 4. Off-ramps/palatable alternative outcomes. Although these tools

Future of Global Competition

/reports/2019/05/future-of-global-competition

The 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS) makes clear that competing effectively with state adversaries will be the primary focus of the Department of Defense (DOD) going forward. Irregular warfare (IW) is a key element of modern great power competition (GPC), and our adversaries are deftly exploiting unconventional methodologies— particularly the use of information and intermediaries (i.e., proxies and surrogates)—as mediums of national influence. In March 2019, CNA hosted a cohort of academic, government, and military experts for a discussion on how special operations forces (SOF) can best lead or support US Government (USG) efforts to compete successfully on a global scale using information operations and intermediary partnerships. The discussion is summarized and synthesized in this document.

influence Great powers are approaching a battlespace confined by mutual nuclear and conventional deterrence. This dynamic places greater strategic importance on unconventional actions and challenges

Russias Black Sea Fleet

/reports/2019/06/russias-black-sea-fleet

Today, the Black Sea Fleet appears to be a more flexible and multipurpose naval formation. Its area of responsibility has evolved and is focused on the greater Mediterranean region from the Caspian to the Levant.

to support Damascus—but also carrying out combat missions and enforcing conventional deterrence against a potential NATO or Turkish action in Syria. The Russian Black Sea Fleet has experienced deep

Basing Rights and Contested Sovereignty in Greenland and Diego Garcia

/reports/2019/08/basing-rights-and-contested-sovereignty-in-greenland-and-diego-garcia

On August 21, 2019, CNA’s Strategy and Policy Analysis program hosted an on-the-record event to discuss how recent developments in sovereignty politics could affect US military basing rights around the world, particularly in Greenland and Diego Garcia. Both territories host important US bases but are subject to sovereignty disputes. The event featured CNA senior vice president Mr. Mark Rosen, CNA analyst Dr. Steven Wills, and Ms. Rachel Ellehuus, deputy director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Europe program. Ms. Nilanthi Samaranayake, director of CNA’s Strategy and Policy Analysis program, moderated the conversation. Panelists appraised recent developments with Greenland and Diego Garcia in their historical perspective, as well as the strategic and operational advantages of US access to the two locations. Discussants agreed that the US approach to basing could benefit from both a greater appreciation of long-term strategic needs and a more concerted effort to make US bases acceptable to local populations and their governments.

Air Base may have changed since they were established in the Cold War, but they remain vital as the US projects force overseas, monitors other great powers, and minimizes risks to deterrence

Five Key Challenges in US-Russian Relations

/our-media/indepth/2021/06/five-key-challenges-in-us-russian-relations

Both US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin aim to halt the downward spiral of the bilateral relationship when they meet on June 16 in Geneva, Switzerland.

and approaches to deterrence, Russian military thought, and nuclear weapons issues. Both US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin aim to halt the downward spiral of the bilateral ... . Responding to these actions, as well as Russia's information warfare and propaganda campaigns, the U.S. and allies have introduced sanctions, adopted a stronger military deterrence posture

ai with ai: The Unreasonable Perplexity of Fat Tails

/our-media/podcasts/ai-with-ai/season-3/3-15

Andy and Dave discuss an announcement from Exscientia and Sumitomo that they have the first entirely-AI developed drug that is now entering clinical trials. The Director of the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center, Lt. Gen. Jack Shanahan has announced his retirement. Senator Michael Bennet sends a scathing letter to the U.S. Chief Technology Officer on its recent AI Principles for regulation. DARPA's Habitus program seeks to automate the process of revealing and using local information, to enhance stability operations in under-governed regions. And Washington state legislature has at least one facial recognition bill under consideration. Google Research announces its Meena chatbot, which claims is more Sensible and Specific (a new metric that it developed) than the award-winning Mitsuku, though requiring 30 days to compile on 2,048 tensor processing units. Researchers at the Max-Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems and the University of Florence announce a method for fusing deep learning with combinatorics solvers to create a neural network for combinatorial problems. RAND releases a report on Deterrence in the Age of Thinking Machines. Sejnowski pens thoughts on "the unreasonable effectiveness of deep learning in AI." Taleb takes a detailed look at the statistical consequences of fat tail distributions. Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan pens the final (?) part in his trilogy, AugoStrat Awakenings. Fortune publishes a special magazine on the topic of AI. And Andrew Ng and Geoffrey Hinton sit down for a 40-minute chat on deep learning.

deep learning with combinatorics solvers to create a neural network for combinatorial problems. RAND releases a report on Deterrence in the Age of Thinking Machines. Sejnowski pens thoughts ... of the Week RAND Study - Deterrence in the Age of Thinking Machines (123 page) Report AI Op-ed of the Week The unreasonable effectiveness of deep learning in artificial intelligence (6

Japan Elevates Security Concerns Over Taiwan Strait

/our-media/indepth/2021/07/japan-elevates-security-concerns-over-taiwan-strait

On July 13, the Japanese Ministry of Defense released the latest edition of its annual white paper, Defense of Japan 2021.

that there is considerable behind-the-scenes discussion regarding corresponding deterrence measures. But deterrence will be diminished unless the U.S., Japan and other allies and partners can credibly communicate

cna talks: Nuclear Posture Review

/our-media/podcasts/cna-talks/2018/nuclear-posture-review

CNA analyst Vince Manzo and special guest Elaine Bunn take a deep dive into the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), released in early February of 2018. They discuss the purpose of the NPR, what makes it unique to previous directives, the strategic challenges that this NPR addresses, the ongoing debate over cost, tradeoffs and strategic value, and more.

Nuclear Posture Review CNA analyst Vince Manzo and special guest Elaine Bunn take a deep dive into the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), released in early February of 2018. They discuss the purpose of the NPR, what makes it unique to previous directives, the strategic challenges that this NPR addresses, the ongoing debate over cost, tradeoffs and strategic value, and more. Nuclear Posture Review Biographies Vincent Manzo   is an expert in nuclear weapons policy. His research portfolio includes deterrence, extended deterrence, escalation management, strategic stability, and arms control