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Russian Strategy for Escalation Management: Key Concepts

/reports/2020/04/russian-strategy-for-escalation-management-key-concepts

This report examines evolving debates within the Russian military on questions of “escalation management,” or intra-war deterrence.

on questions of “escalation management,” or intra-war deterrence. In the 1990s, the Russian military debated the ways and means by which to carry out deterrence at different levels of conflict, while faced with a limited toolkit and largely dependent on nuclear weapons. Over time they came to consider deterrence levels, damage types, and the specific political and military measures that could ... in deterrence. A reasonably mature system of deterrence emerged as the product of decades of debates and concept development, designed to handle the spectrum of Russian security requirements, from

cna talks: Not Just Nuclear Weapons: How China Views Strategic Deterrence

/our-media/podcasts/cna-talks/2023/06/not-just-nuclear-weapons-how-china-views-strategic-deterrence

For decades, competition between the United States and Russia has defined strategic deterrence. But as China emerges as the greatest rival to the United States, it is worth examining how Beijing views the concept. In this episode we examine how China’s military and civilian analysts are writing about strategic deterrence, and how new technologies and domains impact their perception.

Not Just Nuclear Weapons: How China Views Strategic Deterrence For decades, competition between the United States and Russia has defined strategic deterrence. But as China emerges as the greatest rival to the United States, it is worth examining how Beijing views the concept. In this episode we examine how China’s military and civilian analysts are writing about strategic deterrence, and how new technologies and domains impact their perception. Not Just Nuclear Weapons: How China Views Strategic Deterrence Guest Biographies Brian Waidelich is a Research Scientist with CNA’s

Russian Approaches to Competition

/reports/2021/10/russian-approaches-to-competition

Russian strategy is best characterized as offensive, seeking to revise the status quo, resulting in an activist foreign policy. The strategy does not eschew selective engagement in areas of mutual interest, but it is not premised on accommodation, concessions, or acceptance of the current balance of power. Instead, it emphasizes building the military means necessary for direct competition, and using them to enable indirect approaches for pursuing state objectives. Direct means range from conventional and nuclear force modernization, expansion of force structure in the European theater, exercises, brinksmanship, and use of force to attain vital interests. They deter US responses, threaten escalation, and create freedom of maneuver for Russian foreign policy. These are principally ways of compressing the opponent, and focusing on the main theater in the competition, which for Moscow is Europe. Indirect means in turn include military deployments abroad to peripheral theaters, covert action, use of proxies and mercenary groups, political warfare and information confrontation. These instruments are interrelated, with direct approaches, tied closely to military capability or classical forms of deterrence, enabling the indirect approach, which is the principal way by which Moscow pursues political aims. The logic of Russian strategy is that absent the ability to generate strong economic or technological means, Moscow is best served with approaches that reduce US performance by disorganizing its opponent's efforts, reducing cohesion, and employing asymmetric means in the competition.

, with direct approaches, tied closely to military capability or classical forms of deterrence, enabling the indirect approach, which is the principal way by which Moscow pursues political aims. The logic ... of deterrence, enabling the indirect approach. A further parsing of Russian approaches categorizes them into forceful and non-forceful means, though the distinction may admittedly be in the eye of the beholder

pla update: Issue 12, July 17, 2023

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PLA Update, Issue 12, is a CNA China Studies Program monthly newsletter, with summaries of Chinese media coverage of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

"hyping" of the strategic environment and highlighted the document's discussion of integrated deterrence. On June 19, China Defense News published a short analysis of the unclassified version ... building and preparations for great power confrontation. Integrated deterrence. The China Defense News article also highlighted the discussion of integrated deterrence within the NMS, stating that the US military believed the effectiveness of deterrence in an era of great power confrontation depended on a reliable and effective nuclear deterrent. The article said it was noteworthy that near

russian media analysis: Issue 3, November 7, 2021

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Russian Perspectives on Western Military Activities

Review and deterrence Some of the Russian coverage focuses on deterrence issues, including the ongoing US Nuclear Posture Review process and the challenge of deterrence in hybrid warfare. An October 29 article in Nezavisimoe Voennoe Obozrenie by Aleksandr Bartosh and Anatoliy Letyago discusses the challenge of deterrence in a “global hybrid war” and criticizes the US efforts to increase ... on nuclear deterrence against Russia makes waves Several articles between October 25 and October 29 cover Russian defense minister Sergey Shoigu’s response to a statement by Germany’s defense minister

Israeli Nuclear Alert of 1973

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Rumors of an Israeli nuclear alert in the early days of the 1973 Yom Kippur War have circulated for decades, even making their way into popular culture. The alleged alert has also informed more serious discussions about the use of nuclear weapon during international crises, and one celebrated journalist has gone so far as to assert that the Israelis used the alert to blackmail the United States to intervene aggressively in the war on Israel’s side. But did the alert really happen? In early 2012, CNA received a project award from the Naval Postgraduate School’s Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) to investigate the truth of the reports concerning the alleged alert. PASCC is funded by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA).

Israeli Nuclear Alert of 1973 The Israeli “Nuclear Alert” of 1973: Deterrence and Signaling in Crisis Rumors of an Israeli nuclear alert in the early days of the 1973 Yom Kippur War have circulated for decades, even making their way into popular culture. The alleged alert has also informed more serious discussions about the use of nuclear weapon during international crises, and one celebrated journalist has gone so far as to assert that the Israelis used the alert to blackmail the United States to intervene aggressively in the war on Israel’s side. But did the alert really happen? In early

Sino Soviet Border Conflict

/reports/2010/sino-soviet-border-conflict

New archival materials on the 1969 Sino-Soviet border conflict demonstrate how nuclear weapons impact political and military decision-making.

Sino Soviet Border Conflict The Sino-Soviet Border Conflict: Deterrence, Escalation, and the Threat of Nuclear War in 1969 New archival materials on the 1969 Sino-Soviet border conflict demonstrate how nuclear weapons impact political and military decision-making. On 2 March 1969, Chinese troops ambushed and killed a group of Soviet border guards on Zhenbao Island, one of the many disputed islands on the Ussuri River. As Sino-Soviet tensions heightened in the 1960s, ownership of these tiny, uninhabited, and strategically meaningless river islands along the Ussuri, which was designated

The Nuclear Programs of Russia China North Korea and Iran

/reports/2024/01/the-nuclear-programs-of-russia-china-north-korea-and-iran

This report analyzes nuclear weapons programs in Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, including nuclear command and control, R&D, funding, staffing, testing.

States. Until recently, the two countries were in a relationship of mutual deterrence and numerical parity buttressed by arms control limits and intrusive monitoring and verification measures ... views nuclear weapons as the ultimate guarantor of its security and an insurance policy to protect against nuclear and large-scale conventional attacks. In Russia’s “strategic deterrence” framework ... its definition of strategic deterrence to include a larger nuclear arsenal as well as developing a range of conventional weapons, such as hypersonics and missile defense, and cyber and space

coming in from the cold: Living Under the Cloud

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Returning guest Steve Wills and newcomers Vince Manzo and Anya Fink sit down to discuss the history of nuclear weapons and the events that shaped modern nuclear policy.

10 Returning guest Steve Wills and newcomers Vince Manzo and Anya Fink sit down to discuss the history of nuclear weapons and the events that shaped modern nuclear policy. Living Under the Cloud Biographies Vincent Manzo   is an expert in nuclear weapons policy. His research portfolio includes deterrence, extended deterrence, escalation management, strategic stability, and arms control ... countermeasures ship. Anya Fink is an expert in Russia policy. Her research is focused on Russian approaches to deterrence and Russian military thought. ContactName /*/Contact/ContactName

russian media analysis: Issue 1, October 10, 2021

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for France and the US to restore mutual trust, given the severity of the offense. Russian analysts discuss New Cold War, space deterrence Two recent articles discuss the ongoing evolution ... the one during the Cold War in order to make the world safer in the face of a possible nuclear war. An article in Voenno-promyshlennyi kur'er warns of an evolving US policy of deterrence against Russia and China that, in addition to nuclear and non-nuclear deterrence, now also encompasses the space domain. NATO’s expulsion of eight Russian diplomats and reduction of mission Several Russian