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Reviving the Caliphate

/reports/2014/reviving-the-caliphate

In 2007, CNA hosted a conference on the topic of the caliphate. At that time, there were calls for the reestablishment of the caliphate coming from certain Islamist circles, including groups such as Hizb ut-Tahrir and al-Qaeda. In the wake of multiple crises throughout the Muslim world, these calls appeared to be gaining in relevance and support. The goal of the conference was to better understand who supported the restoration of the caliphate, why, and ultimately what such an outcome might mean for U.S. policy and interests in the Muslim world. To answer these questions, we convened over 25 experts on Islam from around the world to discuss the caliphate, focusing on what the institution means to Muslims today, its historical significance, and what applicability, if any, it has in the modern era.

historical significance, and what applicability, if any, it has in the modern era. A caliphate is an Islamic form of government in which political and religious leadership is united, and the head of state ... of the caliphate, no one has claimed the position of caliph—that is, until June 2014, when the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)1 declared the creation of a new caliphate, the “Islamic State ... of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, we decided to update our report from the 2007 conference. In the following pages, we revisit our conclusions from that event and apply our findings to the current

ISIS-Sinai's Violent Start to 2019

/our-media/indepth/2019/07/isis-sinais-violent-start-to-2019

President Trump declared the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) defeated in December 2018. But the loss of its territorial "Caliphate" is only part of the longer struggle.

ISIS-Sinai's Violent Start to 2019 President Trump declared the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) defeated in December 2018. But the loss of its territorial "Caliphate" is only part of the longer struggle. /images/InDepth/Post4.jpg ISIS-Sinai's Violent Start to 2019 4 Zack Gold President Trump declared the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) defeated in December 2018 ... in militia the military has organized to fight the insurgents. The remainder are what ISIS calls “spies” or “collaborators”: locals who are — or at least are accused of — working with the state. From

United States and Gulf State Interests in the Post Arab Spring Maghreb

/reports/2017/united-states-and-gulf-state-interests-in-the-post-arab-spring-maghreb

The 2010-2011 Arab Spring caused upheaval in North Africa’s Maghreb region, which comprises Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya. This upheaval elevated the Maghreb’s importance globally, including for the United States and the Gulf Arab states—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar in particular. The Gulf Arab countries’ increased engagement in the Maghreb is the result of shifts within the internal politics of the Arab world. In the Maghreb, U.S. and Gulf state interests overlap to the extent that all players want stability, but each state has its own definition of what stability means. The U.S. and the Gulf states all support the Moroccan and Algerian regimes, but intra-Gulf rivalries are helping destabilize Libya, where different Gulf- backed proxy forces are exacerbating that country’s civil war. Moving forward, the United States and the Gulf states may find areas where their interests converge (e.g., stabilizing Tunisian politics, fighting terrorism, and promoting development) but also areas where they diverge, especially in Libya.

of the Islamic State in Libya. Over the past year, the United States has expanded its military actions against the Islamic State to include North Africa, most notably in the form of airstrikes ... United States and Gulf State Interests in the Post Arab Spring Maghreb The Same, Yet Different: United States and Gulf State Interests in the Post-Arab Spring Maghreb The 2010-2011 Arab Spring caused ... of the Arab world. In the Maghreb, U.S. and Gulf state interests overlap to the extent that all players want stability, but each state has its own definition of what stability means. The U.S. and the Gulf

Risky Business

/reports/2014/risky-business

Since 9/11, the United States has invested billions of dollars in training and equipping foreign security forces to fight terrorist and insurgent groups abroad. Despite considerable effort and expense (including thousands of U.S. lives lost), raising military and police forces in places such as Afghanistan, Iraq, and Mali has yielded decidedly lackluster results. As a result, there is growing recognition that the application of traditional security sector reform efforts to combat asymmetric threats such as terrorist groups in fragile or failed states is proving to be slow, cumbersome, and in some instances counterproductive. Moreover, in an era of shrinking defense budgets, a purely top-down, state-centric approach has become too costly and politically contentious to sustain on a large scale.

successful. As a result, terrorist organizations such as al Qaeda and its affiliates, the Taliban, al Shabab, and now the Islamic State, remain largely intact and continue to threaten the United States ... , in scope and scale they are remarkably similar to the insurgent groups the United States fought against in Iraq and Afghanistan. Groups such as the Islamic State, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, al ... of under-governed areas by terrorist groups as safe havens and the recent propensity of some of these groups to seize additional territory, along with the shortcomings of many state counterterrorism partners

Diagnosing the Boko Haram Conflict

/reports/2015/diagnosing-the-boko-haram-conflict

The intent of this report is to provide the appropriate type of information—at the appropriate level of granularity—in order to inform U.S. government efforts to develop more effective approaches to countering Boko Haram. The goal is to help U.S. planners and decision-makers understand the conflict as an interconnected system and, eventually, to develop targeted, conflict-sensitive strategies for assisting the Nigerian government. Specifically, this report seeks to diagnose and dissect the conflict by identifying relevant political, economic, social, and security factors at work in northeast Nigeria, by analyzing how key actors mobilize grievances and institutional resiliencies to drive or mitigate conflict, and by forecasting how conflict dynamics might evolve in the future.

and establish an Islamic state in its place. Since 2010, this group has been responsible for more terrorist attacks in Nigeria than all other militant groups combined. In April 2014, the conflict rose ... interests in Nigeria, and beyond, based on revelations of Boko Haram’s suspected links to Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and more recently to the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL

china ai and autonomy report: Issue 4, December 2, 2021

/our-media/newsletters/china-ai-and-autonomy-report/issue-4

The China AI and Autonomy Report, issue 4, is a biweekly newsletter published by CNA, on artificial intelligence and autonomy in China.

through a web of intermediaries to two companies controlled by the Chinese state: China Railway Rolling Stock Corp., a state-controlled rail giant, and an investment group controlled by the municipal ... or attempted killings of Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani, and Iranian nuclear ... , especially as the Chinese market is turning increasingly to domestically made solutions. POLICY AND LAW China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) fined several companies, including

Memes in US Government Influence Campaigns

/reports/2018/04/memes-in-us-government-influence-campaigns

The term meme was coined in 1976 by Richard Dawkins to explore the ways in which ideas spread between people. With the introduction of the internet, the term has evolved to refer to culturally resonant material—a funny picture, an amusing video, a rallying hashtag—spread online, primarily via social media. This CNA self-initiated exploratory study examines memes and the role that memetic engagement can play in U.S. government (USG) influence campaigns. We define meme as “a culturally resonant item easily shared or spread online,” and develop an epidemiological model of inoculate / infect / treat to classify and analyze ways in which memes have been effectively used in the online information environment. Further, drawing from our discussions with subject matter experts, we make preliminary observations and identify areas for future research on the ways that memes and memetic engagement may be used as part of USG influence campaigns.

government (USG) as part of its information and influence campaigns to counter state actors such as Russia and non-state actors such as the Islamic State. However, the state of research on both memes ... approaches to countering state and non-state actors in the online information environment. To do this, CNA reviewed the literature on the history of memes, memetic engagement, and so-called “memetic warfare

Future Policy Options for US Efforts Against Al Qaeda

/reports/2017/future-policy-options-for-us-efforts-against-al-qaeda

In its independent assessment of U.S. government efforts against Al-Qaeda that was mandated by Congress via the 2015 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), CNA concluded that the current U.S. strategy toward Al-Qaeda was unlikely to achieve its stated goals to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat the group. CNA recommended that the U.S. government should undertake a new review of its policy goals and overarching strategy against Al-Qaeda. This occasional paper presents three potential policy options for the U.S. government to consider, should it seek to undertake such a review. These options are retrenchment, escalation, and containment.

that Al-Qaeda (and like organizations, such as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS) is not a singular group and so it may be possible—or even advantageous—to apply a mix of these options ... Authorization Act (NDAA) stated, “The Secretary of Defense, in coordination with the Secretary of State and the Director of National Intelligence, shall provide for the conduct of an independent ... with a structured foundation from which to launch an effort to devise a new strategy for its approach to Al-Qaeda. In the remainder of this paper, we will first briefly summarize the current state of Al-

Unconventional Warfare and Counterinsurgency in Pakistan

/reports/2012/unconventional-warfare-and-counterinsurgency-in-pakistan

Much has changed in the government’s thinking over the last 11 years. Yet the transition remains largely hesitant and partial. U.S. and NATO forces are pulling back from Afghanistan, and the Taliban is poised to regain at least some of its former power. At the same time, India has modernized its military and strengthened its alliances with the western powers. These trends create strong incentives for the military to, at the very least, retain the unconventional warfare option. The challenge for the Unites States going forward will be to ensure that Pakistan continues to move in the right direction and does not revert back to its earlier policies.

Pakistan’s creation in 1947, the country’s leaders have relied on Islamic guerrillas as a “low-cost, high-return” means of achieving stra- tegic objectives. Religious militants of varying persuasions developed an enormous infrastructure across Pakistan, as a result of state pat- ronage and a permissive environment. The Pakistani government in- tended them in part to serve as a third line of defense ... government in Afghan- istan during the late 1990s, pushed Pakistan’s claims to the disputed state of Kashmir, and tied down hundreds of thousands of Indian troops for almost two decades. Few militaries

Shining a Light on the Western Balkans

/reports/2017/shining-a-light-on-the-western-balkans

Since the civil wars of the 1990s, the Western Balkans region has been plagued by conflict and instability. The United States and Western Europe disengaged from this region in the last decade, and the Western Balkan countries have become particularly unstable due to internal vulnerabilities and external influence from state and non- state actors. CNA initiated a study to assess these internal vulnerabilities and external influence and threats from Russia, international terrorism, and transnational organized crime. Using research and semi-structured discussions with subject matter experts in the United States, Serbia, and Macedonia, including recent U.S. senior military and civilian leaders, this paper presents findings and implications for U.S. and European civilian and military leaders to consider in order to proactively engage in this region, and promote a regional strategy that supports a Europe that is “whole and free,” and one that is based on Western institutions and democratic principles.

the past decade in part as a result of “Balkan fatigue.” Today, fresh concerns over a resurgent Russia, the spread of terrorist groups (particularly the Islamic State), and transnational organized ... countries have become particularly unstable due to internal vulnerabilities and external influence from state and non- state actors. CNA initiated a study to assess these internal vulnerabilities ... malign influence by state and non-state actors. The U.S. and its European partners remain committed to a peaceful Europe—one that is grounded in democratic values and upholds Western transatlantic