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Your search for Escalation found 60 results.

Sino Soviet Border Conflict

/reports/2010/sino-soviet-border-conflict

New archival materials on the 1969 Sino-Soviet border conflict demonstrate how nuclear weapons impact political and military decision-making.

Sino Soviet Border Conflict The Sino-Soviet Border Conflict: Deterrence, Escalation, and the Threat of Nuclear War in 1969 New archival materials on the 1969 Sino-Soviet border conflict demonstrate how nuclear weapons impact political and military decision-making. On 2 March 1969, Chinese troops ambushed and killed a group of Soviet border guards on Zhenbao Island, one of the many disputed ... nuclear threats had unintended consequences that greatly increased the possibility of accidental or inadvertent nuclear escalation. Emotions, stress, and suspicion of Soviet intentions took hold in China

AI and Autonomous Technologies in the War in Ukraine

/reports/2023/10/ai-and-autonomous-technologies-in-the-war-in-ukraine

A survey of artificial intelligence in the war in Ukraine finds AI use has had a limited effect on escalation, but this may change with extensive use of AI.

A survey of artificial intelligence in the war in Ukraine finds AI use has had a limited effect on escalation, but this may change with extensive use of AI. The role of artificial intelligence (AI ... technology use in the war in Ukraine. The following section considers how the use of AI and autonomous technologies in the war may have affected the risk of escalation from conventional war to the use ... beyond the current Russo-Ukrainian war, focusing specifically on the potential role of confidence building measures in minimizing the risk of inadvertent escalation. Margarita Konaev /reports/2023/10

Future Policy Options for US Efforts Against Al Qaeda

/reports/2017/future-policy-options-for-us-efforts-against-al-qaeda

In its independent assessment of U.S. government efforts against Al-Qaeda that was mandated by Congress via the 2015 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), CNA concluded that the current U.S. strategy toward Al-Qaeda was unlikely to achieve its stated goals to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat the group. CNA recommended that the U.S. government should undertake a new review of its policy goals and overarching strategy against Al-Qaeda. This occasional paper presents three potential policy options for the U.S. government to consider, should it seek to undertake such a review. These options are retrenchment, escalation, and containment.

policy options for the U.S. government to consider, should it seek to undertake such a review. These options are retrenchment, escalation, and containment. Section 1228 of the 2015 National Defense ... three distinct options: retrenchment, escalation, and containment. To be clear, we recognize that there are other options available to the U.S. government beyond these three choices. And we recognize

Russian Approaches to Competition

/reports/2021/10/russian-approaches-to-competition

Russian strategy is best characterized as offensive, seeking to revise the status quo, resulting in an activist foreign policy. The strategy does not eschew selective engagement in areas of mutual interest, but it is not premised on accommodation, concessions, or acceptance of the current balance of power. Instead, it emphasizes building the military means necessary for direct competition, and using them to enable indirect approaches for pursuing state objectives. Direct means range from conventional and nuclear force modernization, expansion of force structure in the European theater, exercises, brinksmanship, and use of force to attain vital interests. They deter US responses, threaten escalation, and create freedom of maneuver for Russian foreign policy. These are principally ways of compressing the opponent, and focusing on the main theater in the competition, which for Moscow is Europe. Indirect means in turn include military deployments abroad to peripheral theaters, covert action, use of proxies and mercenary groups, political warfare and information confrontation. These instruments are interrelated, with direct approaches, tied closely to military capability or classical forms of deterrence, enabling the indirect approach, which is the principal way by which Moscow pursues political aims. The logic of Russian strategy is that absent the ability to generate strong economic or technological means, Moscow is best served with approaches that reduce US performance by disorganizing its opponent's efforts, reducing cohesion, and employing asymmetric means in the competition.

modernization, expansion of force structure in the European theater, exercises, brinksmanship, and use of force to attain vital interests. They deter US responses, threaten escalation, and create freedom ... and nuclear force modernization, expansion of force structure in the European theater, exercises, brinkmanship, and use of force to attain vital interests. They deter US responses, threaten escalation, and lend

PRC Writings on Strategic Deterrence

/reports/2023/04/prc-writings-on-strategic-deterrence

Military technology innovations have bred PRC and PLA concerns as to the sustainability of China’s approach to strategic deterrence, recent writings suggest.

and evolution in concepts of deterrence, strategic stability, and escalation control, particularly between 2017 and 2022. PRC writings during this period display growing concern that innovations ... in a nuclear conflict and increase the incentive for preemptive attack. Escalation control. New technologies and cross-domain deterrence may make escalation control more difficult, because it can be hard to ascertain what constitutes a first strike vs. a retaliatory one and therefore which side is responsible for escalation. Implications Many PRC authors argue that new technologies

Analytic Framework for Emulating Russian Decision Making

/reports/2017/analytic-framework-for-emulating-russian-decision-making

The purpose of this report is to propose an analytical framework for emulating Russian decision-making in the national security realm. The framework is paired with a methodology that allows the user to systematically examine what Russian decision- making would look like in response to a foreign policy crisis. The framework is presented in the first section and then applied to three potential crisis scenarios in Eastern Europe. The analytical structure presented is meant to be used as a guideline. It offers potential answers, tools, and a systematic method for emulation that allows users to formulate decision-trees for Russian actions on the basis of reasonable assumptions about how Russia might act in various situations. The final product can be further developed and refined on the basis of observation of Russian actions in future interactions with its adversaries and behavior in crisis situations.

. We then address Russian red lines and escalation points, structuring the discussion in terms of 'theories of defeat' or what happens when Moscow realizes that its strategy in the conflict has failed ... and/or escalation strategies that allow Moscow to manage potential risk in a crisis scenario. The framework for each case study includes a set of decision-trees that highlight how Russia might respond to potential actions by other actors. The analysis also accounts for black swans, events that may impose new political realities, lead to escalation or a new confrontation between the parties, and begin to add

russian media analysis: Issue 3, November 7, 2021

/our-media/newsletters/russian-media-analysis/issue-3

Russian Perspectives on Western Military Activities

uselessness of the mission as a diplomatic institution, notes of caution by regime critics about the potential for conflict escalation are also sounded. Russian analysts discuss the US Nuclear Posture ... operational unpredictability as potentially having the ability to contribute to accidental or inadvertent escalation of a war. On the prospect of a European army Two longer articles discuss the prospect

Assessing Russian Cyber and Information Warfare in Ukraine

/reports/2023/11/assessing-russian-cyber-and-information-warfare-in-ukraine

Examines Russian use of cyber and information capabilities to influence the course of the Ukraine war, analyzing prior expectations, what is publicly known of wartime realities, potential reasons for disparity between the two, and the distinct and sometimes contradictory take-aways that have been drawn within the analytical community.

these expectations have been met. This includes both expectations about how such capabilities could be used surrounding military invasion and escalation and also about how they might contribute ... particularly consider the possible takeaways about the influence of Russian cyber activities on escalation dynamics and partnership cohesion and what we can and cannot say based on currently available

Subnational-Deterrence-An-Information-Campaign-to-Reduce-Risks-of-a-Nuclear-NK

/reports/2022/12/subnational-deterrence-an-information-campaign-to-reduce-risks-of-a-nuclear-nk

A campaign of information and influence by the US and South Korea could deter key North Korean personnel, reducing risks of conflict or use of nuclear weapons.

. As the threat from North Korea evolves, the challenges increase in magnitude, creating significant risk of a military conflict and of escalation within such a conflict. If deterrence fails to prevent ... in the general population from enabling and supporting points of escalation. Based on previous independent work of the authors, CNA hypothesizes that an information campaign, properly supported

Russian Perspective on Western Military Activities Oct 25

/reports/2021/11/russian-perspective-on-western-military-activities-oct-25

Reviewing Lloyd Austin’s visit, reaction to Western statements on increased tension in the Donbas, and concern about direct NATO military support for Ukraine.

initially stated that its intelligence had not noted any suspicious troop movements, Ukrainian politicians quickly changed their minds and started speaking about the need to prepare for an escalation in the Donbas conflict. It concludes by quoting Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova describing Western reports about potential Russian military escalation as a fresh fake news campaign