New Report: A New Framework for Managing Nuclear Escalation
With less than six months left until the New START arms control treaty expires, the climate of cooperative nuclear risk reduction continues to sour. As a result, the risk of U.S. adversaries escalating to the point of using nuclear weapons in a conflict will grow. The United States is underprepared to meet this challenge.
In a new CNA report, "Prevailing Under the Nuclear Shadow: A New Framework for U.S. Escalation Management," analyst Madison Estes argues that the nuclear policy community has focused on escalation characterizations and risks at the expense of escalation management. The report aims to fill that gap with a practical decision-making framework to vet actionable policy options that would better enable the U.S. to minimize the potential use of nuclear weapons in conflict. "We know the character of the problem — existing research and analysis provide a robust foundation for understanding how nuclear escalation might manifest. In this study, we sought to take that a step further and design a framework that U.S. policymakers and planners can use to prepare military options that mitigate the risk of nuclear escalation in a conflict with Russia, China, or North Korea," said Estes.
The framework in this CNA study offers a timely new tool for preparing sound policy options as the U.S. potentially moves further away from longstanding approaches to mitigating potential nuclear escalation through transparency and cooperation. In addition to the expiration of New START in early 2021, the U.S. has also withdrawn from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and intends to withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty.
Estes uses the objectives and tools of U.S. escalation management and a five-phase process to create a framework for assessing and developing courses of action during war planning. This provides leaders with more effective pre-planned strategic and operational military options that have been thoroughly assessed to inform their decision-making in the event of a conflict.
The full report can be found at https://www.cna.org/CNA_files/PDF/CRM-2020-U-027973-Final%20(002).pdf .
CNA is a nonprofit research and analysis organization dedicated to the safety and security of the nation. It operates the Center for Naval Analyses—the federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) of the Department of the Navy—as well as the Institute for Public Research. CNA develops actionable solutions to complex problems of national importance. With nearly 700 scientists, analysts, and professional staff, CNA takes a real-world approach to gathering data. Its unique Field Program places analysts on aircraft carriers and military bases, in squad rooms and crisis centers, working side by side with operators and decision-makers around the world. CNA supports naval operations, fleet readiness, and strategic competition. Its non-defense research portfolio includes criminal justice, homeland security, and data management.
Note to writers and editors: CNA is not an acronym and is correctly referenced as "CNA, a research organization in Arlington, VA."