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An Analysis of Female Representation and Marines Performance in Aviation and Logistics Occupations

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CNA analyst examined trends in female representation and performance in aviation and logistics occfields and provided insights into what may occur when the Marine Corps opens PMOSs that have been closed to women.

Water Resource Competition

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The Brahmaputra River originates in China and runs through India and Bangladesh. China and India have fought a war over contested territory through which the river flows, and Bangladesh faces human security pressures in this basin that will be magnified by upstream river practices. Controversial dam-building activities and water diversion plans could threaten regional stability; yet, no bilateral or multilateral water management accord exists in the Brahmaputra basin. This project, sponsored by the MacArthur Foundation, provides greater understanding of the equities and drivers fueling water insecurity in the Brahmaputra River basin. After conducting research in Dhaka, New Delhi, and Beijing, CNA offers recommendations for key stakeholders to consider at the subnational, bilateral, and multilateral levels to increase cooperation in the basin. These findings lay the foundation for policymakers in China, India, and Bangladesh to discuss steps that help manage and resolve Brahmaputra resource competition, thereby strengthening regional security.

Examining Recent PLA Writings

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This study examines how people in China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) think about and discuss escalation control in their public writings. It draws on over two dozen PLA writings, most issued since 2008, to explore the current state of PLA thinking on how crisis and conflict erupt, escalate, and end. We focused on PLA views of conventional (non-nuclear) conflict. We found that controlling the outbreak and escalation of crisis is an area of focus for the PLA. We also found that there are divergences from U.S. thinking that are worthy of attention. Chief among these is that some Chinese military activities in a crisis could be perceived as—and therefore become—escalatory even if they are not intended as such. Finally, we found that PLA views on these issues are evolving, and that there are still many critical unknowns in our understanding of PLA views on escalation control.

Potential Consequences of E-Cigarette Use

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The use of e-cigarettes (vaping) among adolescents, Using data from the National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) this study examine e-cigratte (vaping) trends over time among adolescents and how it may impact DOD's recruitable population.

Gaming Sea Based Multinational Operations

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CNA designed and conducted a table-top exercise (TTX) at the U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) Amphibious Leaders Symposium (PALS) in July 2016 that explored seabasing operations and interoperability during future contingency operations. Using a scenario that revolved around a massive natural disaster striking a fictitious country in the southern Indian Ocean, the TTX strengthened relationships and improved mutual understanding among participating militaries. Military leaders from the 22 Asian, Latin American, and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries participating in PALS formed coalitions, planned how they would operate within these coalitions to provide relief, and assembled their forces to conduct humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HA/DR) operations. PALS participants contributed a broad range of sea-based capabilities and employed them in creative ways. This revealed areas of opportunity and friction that could benefit from discussion at future PALS, dialogue during bilateral military engagements, and inclusion in bilateral and multinational command-post and at-sea exercises.

Las Vegas After Action Assessment

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On June 8, 2014, two Las Vegas (Nevada) police officers were shot and killed in the line of duty while eating lunch in a local restaurant. Also killed in this cowardly ambush was a Good Samaritan civilian. The murder of a police officer in the line of duty is not only a loss to the police department and the law enforcement profession; it is a loss to the community as well. However, the targeted murder of a police officer simply because he or she wears a uniform is a threat to our very democracy and compromises both public safety and national security. When such tragedies do occur, we must take every step necessary to learn from them and see what steps can be taken to enhance officer safety and wellness. The President’s Task Force on 21st Century Policing recognized this in making officer safety and wellness a pillar of its report, stressing that the well-being of our law enforcement officers is vital to public safety. I applaud former Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department (LVMPD) Sheriff Douglas Gillespie for requesting this after-action report and commend the entire LVMPD for supporting an effort that will benefit the profession but required many to relive an unthinkable tragedy. We also commend CNA for their excellent work in preparing this detailed comprehensive analysis. Though we hope that no more tragedies like this occur in the future, we must do all we can to prepare for any possibility and work to reduce risk to the brave men and women who serve in law enforcement.

Asking the Right Questions A Framework for Assessing Counterterrorism Actions

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Since the attacks on September 11, 2001, the United States has dedicated an extraordinary amount of time, money, and effort to countering terrorism, using a variety of approaches and tools. However, it has devoted comparatively little effort to developing rigorous and useful assessment frameworks to help policymakers and practitioners understand how effective these counterterrorism (CT) actions have been. To address this shortfall, in this paper we first identify and characterize today’s prevailing theories of terrorism and their associated CT actions. For each theory, we then create an assessment framework—consisting of specific questions that need to be answered in order to gauge the success or failure of CT actions, and indicators that could be used to answer those questions. These assessment frameworks—which rigorously link policy to practice—should enable CT practitioners to provide policymakers and commanders direct and actionable feedback on whether the approaches they have chosen to countering terrorist groups are having the impacts they expect and desire.

Summary Report US UK Integration in Helmand

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The Commander, U.S. Marine Corps Forces Central Command (COMUSMARCENT) asked CNA, working in partnership with the UK’s Permanent Joint Force Headquarters (PJHQ), to capture insights from U.S.-UK staff integration in Afghanistan. A combined U.S.-UK study team was created, consisting of three CNA analysts from the United States, two UK military officers from PJHQ, and a scientist from the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory. The study team used a hybrid analytic approach involving interviews of U.S. and UK military officers and other subject matter experts, combined with analysis of previous studies and references pertaining to U.S. and UK military operations and integration of forces.

Determining the Statistical Power of the Kolmogorov Smirnov

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Metrics are often used to compare the performance of newly developed systems with the performance of their predecessors. Metrics can also be used to compare the output of a simulator with real-world data to test the accuracy of the simulation. Statistical comparison of these metrics can be necessary when making such a determination. There are different methods of statistical comparison that are sensitive to the various types of underlying distribution of the metric data. Distribution type can affect the performance of these tests, and, fortunately, the distributions of many common metrics are well known. For example, mean time to repair (MTTR) and mean flight hours between critical failures (MFHBCF), generally follow a log-normal and an exponential distribution, respectively. This paper presents the effects of distribution type and parameters on the statistical power of two common goodness-of-fit tests (Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Anderson-Darling) via Monte Carlo simulation.

Retirement Choice 2016

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We find that, for almost all servicemembers, the REDUX retirement plan plus a $30,000 bonus paid at the 15th year of service is a bad choice that significantly reduces their retirement income. The higher the grade, the lower the years of service at retirement, and the longer the servicemember lives, the greater the reduction. Moreover, as each year passes, the difference between REDUX and High-3 retirement income increases.