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Unconstrained FDI Arctic Security

/analyses/2017/unconstrained-fdi-arctic-security

The earth’s polar environments are often thought of as barren, desolate regions ruled by polar bears and covered in ice. And while certainly cold, the Arctic region is far from a valueless waste. Rich in mineral, metal, oil, and gas deposits, as well as vast, unexploited fisheries, the Arctic contains resources estimated to be worth many billions of dollars. About 70 percent of these resources fall within the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of the Arctic littoral states: Canada, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, and the United States. Much of history’s interest in the Arctic has been confined to the explorer’s curiosity and the admiral’s desk. However, we are entering a new era for the Arctic, in which interest in the region and its resources is at an all-time high. Outside states, such as China, have made substantial investments with the strategic intent to do more. The question remains whether the legal and regulatory environment is capable of dealing with significant new foreign direct investment while at the same time protecting the Arctic Ocean and surrounding environment.

/reports/2017/COP-2017-U-015944-1Rev_Page_01.jpg /reports/2017/iceberg.jpg Strategy and Policy Analysis /centers-and-divisions/cna/sppp/strategy-and-policy-analysis DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution

Water Resource Competition

/analyses/2016/water-resource-competition

The Brahmaputra River originates in China and runs through India and Bangladesh. China and India have fought a war over contested territory through which the river flows, and Bangladesh faces human security pressures in this basin that will be magnified by upstream river practices. Controversial dam-building activities and water diversion plans could threaten regional stability; yet, no bilateral or multilateral water management accord exists in the Brahmaputra basin. This project, sponsored by the MacArthur Foundation, provides greater understanding of the equities and drivers fueling water insecurity in the Brahmaputra River basin. After conducting research in Dhaka, New Delhi, and Beijing, CNA offers recommendations for key stakeholders to consider at the subnational, bilateral, and multilateral levels to increase cooperation in the basin. These findings lay the foundation for policymakers in China, India, and Bangladesh to discuss steps that help manage and resolve Brahmaputra resource competition, thereby strengthening regional security.

.UNSECURED.pdf /reports/2016/IRM-2016-U-013097.UNSECURED_Page_001.jpg /reports/2016/brahma.jpg Strategy and Policy Analysis /centers-and-divisions/cna/sppp/strategy-and-policy-analysis Distribution

North Korean Leadership Dynamics

/analyses/2014/north-korean-leadership-dynamics

Kim Jong-il’s death in December 2011 brought about the hereditary transition of power to a third generation. Kim Jong-un assumed the mantle of Supreme Leader.

/reports/2014/cop-2014-u-006988-final_Page_001.jpg /reports/2014/north%20korea.jpg Strategy and Policy Analysis /centers-and-divisions/cna/sppp/strategy-and-policy-analysis Cleared for public release, distribution unlimited. 206 ... would owe its loyalty directly to him. This patronage system would likely be tied to moves to accommodate the twin regime policy philosophies of “Military First” and “Creating a Strong and Powerful Nation ... responsibilities of his position as Supreme Leader. He would have established his own decision-making processes and would be more directly responsible for policy formulation and execution. He would most likely

Improving US India Cooperation in Indian Ocean

/analyses/2014/improving-us-india-cooperation-in-indian-ocean

The CNA Corporation conducted this study to determine how the United States can best deepen coordination with India on humanitar- ian assistance and disaster relief (HA/DR) in the Indian Ocean. This study builds on the findings of a 2012 CNA Corporation study, U.S.- India Security Burden-Sharing?, which identified HA/DR as a functional area in which the United States could advance naval relations with India. This is due to the frequency with which natural disasters strike the region, especially the Bay of Bengal, and, for India, the relative domestic political palatability of working with the United States in the aftermath of natural disasters. The United States is increasingly looking to India to contribute to se- curity in the Indian Ocean. Deepening U.S.-Indian economic con- nections, shared democratic identities, declining U.S. defense budgets, and the rise of China have drawn the United States closer to India as a security partner in the region.

. This study continues CNA’s analysis of prospects for enhancing navy-to-navy cooperation between the United States and India by focusing on identifying ways for the two navies to coordinate ... in the Indian Ocean. Nilanthi Samaranayake Catherine Lea /reports/2014/drm-2013-u-004941-final2.pdf /reports/2014/drm-2013-u-004941-final2_Page_01.jpg /reports/2014/india%20collage.jpg Strategy and Policy Analysis /centers-and-divisions/cna/sppp/strategy-and-policy-analysis Cleared for public release 84 DRM-2013-U-004941-Final2 Dmitry Gorenburg

Understanding an Adversarys Strategic Calculus

/analyses/2013/understanding-an-adversarys-strategic-calculus

Insights into the strategic and operational calculus of a 21st century adversary – like Iran -- can be gained by examining similar cases. One such case is the evolution in the U.S. understanding of the Soviet Union’s strategic and operational calculus regarding the wartime employment of its navy during the last two decades of the Cold War.

On integration On analysis and war gaming On impediments On change On exploitation On applicability to 21st-century Iran. Peter M. Swartz Michael Connell /reports/2013/cop-2013-u-005622-final.pdf /reports/2013/cop-2013-u-005622-final_Page_01.jpg /reports/2013/submarine.jpg Strategy and Policy Analysis /centers-and-divisions/cna/sppp/strategy-and-policy-analysis Cleared for public release

US India Security Burden Sharing

/analyses/2013/us-india-security-burden-sharing

Building a partnership with India is central to U.S. security interests in the Indian Ocean (IO). The United States seeks to work with India to promote stability in a region of rising commercial and strategic importance. U.S. policymakers view India as an “anchor” or “pillar” of stability in the Asia-Pacific. Given declining defense budgets, however, the United States will have fewer resources for its forces and partner capacity-building in this vast region. Envisioning India as a “provider of security in the broader Indian Ocean region,” the United States is naturally eager to pursue burden-sharing opportunities with India as a means to this end. India for its part understands that the United States expects it to assume a greater leadership role in the IO and appreciates the importance of its growing economic and naval capabilities. In 2010, then-Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao spoke about the growing view that “a robust Indian naval presence is seen as a necessary contribution to a cooperative regional security order” and discussed “the cooperative burden-sharing of naval forces to fight piracy off the coast of Somalia” as an example of India’s contributions to IO security.

/reports/2013/drm-2012-u-001121-final2_Page_001.jpg /reports/2013/india%20collage%202.jpg Strategy and Policy Analysis /centers-and-divisions/cna/sppp/strategy-and-policy-analysis Cleared for public release. Distribution unlimited. 150 ... limited resources to build partnerships with countries in this vast region. A robust policy and academic discussion has emerged about the need for the United States to pursue a strategy of “offshore ... , counterterrorism (CT), maritime domain awareness (MDA), and humanitarian assistance/disaster relief (HA/DR). These areas were prioritized during the 2011 U.S.- India Defense Policy Group (DPG) meeting between

Israeli Nuclear Alert of 1973

/analyses/2013/israeli-nuclear-alert-of-1973

Rumors of an Israeli nuclear alert in the early days of the 1973 Yom Kippur War have circulated for decades, even making their way into popular culture. The alleged alert has also informed more serious discussions about the use of nuclear weapon during international crises, and one celebrated journalist has gone so far as to assert that the Israelis used the alert to blackmail the United States to intervene aggressively in the war on Israel’s side. But did the alert really happen? In early 2012, CNA received a project award from the Naval Postgraduate School’s Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) to investigate the truth of the reports concerning the alleged alert. PASCC is funded by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA).

Cohen /reports/2013/DRM-2013-U-004480-Final.pdf /reports/2013/DRM-2013-U-004480-Final_Page_01.jpg /reports/2013/aerial%20image.jpg Strategy and Policy Analysis /centers-and-divisions/cna/sppp

US Navy in the World 1991 to 2000

/analyses/2012/us-navy-in-the-world-1991-to-2000

These briefings by Peter Swartz cover about 35 U.S. Navy capstone documents, 1970–2010. This briefing focuses on strategy and policy documents, 1991–2000.

_Page_001.jpg /reports/2011/world.jpg Strategy and Policy Analysis /centers-and-divisions/cna/sppp/strategy-and-policy-analysis Approved for public release. Distribution unlimited. 130 MISC ... documents, 1970–2010. This briefing focuses on strategy and policy documents, 1991–2000. This brief is built around a series of charts, tables and maps on the following topics: Global trends ... , operations & exercises State of the Navy Navy strategy leadership Naval policy & strategy literature Public USN intelligence documents US Navy basing US military sealift US-flag merchant marine

US Navy Capstone 1991 to 2000

/analyses/2012/us-navy-capstone-1991-to-2000

These briefings by Peter Swartz cover U.S. Navy capstone documents, 1970–. This briefing focuses on Strategy, Policy, Concept, and Vision Documents,1991–2000.

/reports/2012/d0026416.a2_Page_001.jpg /reports/2012/capstone%20collage%206.jpg Strategy and Policy Analysis /centers-and-divisions/cna/sppp/strategy-and-policy-analysis Approved for public release ... US Navy Capstone 1991 to 2000 U.S. Navy Capstone Strategies and Concepts (1991-2000): Strategy, Policy, Concept, and Vision Documents These briefings by Peter Swartz cover U.S. Navy capstone documents, 1970–. This briefing focuses on Strategy, Policy, Concept, and Vision Documents,1991–2000. This brief is built around a series of charts, tables and maps on the following topics: CNO Admiral

Long Littoral Project Bay of Bengal

/analyses/2012/long-littoral-project-bay-of-bengal

This report addresses the major security issues associated with the Bay of Bengal. In this 838,600 square mile area, security threats to numerous countries, including the United States, range from disputes over exclusive economic zones to terrorism, piracy, poaching, overfishing, and trafficking of humans, arms, and narcotics. A review of the full spectrum of threats in the Bay of Bengal reveals two dominant security challenges: nascent China-India competition and the likelihood of a natural disaster. This report explores these issues in order to assess U.S. policy options for addressing each of them. It concludes by recommending ways to manage the potential for China-India strategic rivalry and to mitigate the damage of an environmental catastrophe. This is one in a series of five reports on each of the major maritime basins found along the greater Asian littoral that runs from the Sea of Japan in the east to the Arabian Sea in the west. This “long littoral” is the subject of a CNA project of the same name under the direction of CNA Senior Fellow RADM (ret.) Michael A. McDevitt. The Long Littoral project examines the five great maritime basins of the IndoPacific—the Sea of Japan, the East China and Yellow seas, the South China Sea, the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea—in order to provide a different perspective, namely a maritime viewpoint, on security issues that the United States’ “rebalance” strategy must address as it focuses on the Indo-Pacific littoral. The project also aims to identify issues that may be common to more than one basin, but involve different players in different regions, with the idea that solutions possible in one maritime basin may be applicable in others.

Samaranayake /reports/2012/irp-2012-u-002319-final.pdf /reports/2012/irp-2012-u-002319-final_Page_01.jpg /reports/2012/bay%20of%20bengal.jpg Strategy and Policy Analysis /centers-and-divisions/cna/sppp ... and the likelihood of a natural disaster. This report explores these issues in order to assess U.S. policy options for addressing each of them. It concludes by recommending ways to manage the potential