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North Korean Leadership Dynamics

/analyses/2014/north-korean-leadership-dynamics

Kim Jong-il’s death in December 2011 brought about the hereditary transition of power to a third generation. Kim Jong-un assumed the mantle of Supreme Leader.

COP-2014-U-006988-Final A Second Year Assessment

South China Sea US Policy Options

/analyses/2014/south-china-sea-us-policy-options

The aim of this report is to propose additional policy options that the United States might pursue in the South China Sea. To this end it provides a detailed recounting of existing U.S. policy toward the South China Sea. It concludes by recommending additional policy approaches aimed toward generating a more peaceful, stable, non- confrontational, law abiding environment in the South China Sea. Along the way it will address the U.S. interests that are involved in the South China Sea. It will briefly explain what international laws apply to the South China Sea, and detail the “rules” that Washington’s policy insists all parties follow. It will then provide an overview of the legal merits of the respective claims to the islands and features in the South China Sea. The legal overview is presented not to argue for a change to existing U.S. policy of not taking a position on sovereignty claims, but to provide policy-makers with some understanding of the legal complexity of the claims issue.

generating a more peaceful, stable, non- confrontational, law abiding environment in the South China Sea. It also addresses U.S. interests, a legal assessment of sovereignty claims, and a primer on the “rules

Philippine Claims in South China Sea

/analyses/2014/philippine-claims-in-south-china-sea

This is the third of three legal analyses commissioned as part of a project entitled “U.S. Policy Options in the South China Sea.” Experienced U.S. international lawyers, such as Captain Mark Rosen, Judge Advocate General’s Corps, USN (ret.),1 the author of this analysis, were asked to test the various legal arguments that Vietnam, China, Malaysia, Brunei, and the Philippines make in support of their claims, weigh them against the body of international case law associated with maritime disputes of this sort, and, if possible, reach a judgment on which country’s claim is superior. Importantly, this analysis of Philippine claims to Scarborough Shoal and features in the Spratly archipelago was not undertaken as a prelude to a recommendation that the United States depart from its long-held position of not taking a position on competing sovereignty claims in the South China Sea. That is not the intent of the project; nor is it one of the recommendations.

to sovereignty, in order to offer an objective assessment of which claims are superior. Mark E. Rosen /reports/2014/iop-2014-u-008435.pdf /reports/2014/iop-2014-u-008435_Page_01.jpg /reports/2014/scs

Israeli Nuclear Alert of 1973

/analyses/2013/israeli-nuclear-alert-of-1973

Rumors of an Israeli nuclear alert in the early days of the 1973 Yom Kippur War have circulated for decades, even making their way into popular culture. The alleged alert has also informed more serious discussions about the use of nuclear weapon during international crises, and one celebrated journalist has gone so far as to assert that the Israelis used the alert to blackmail the United States to intervene aggressively in the war on Israel’s side. But did the alert really happen? In early 2012, CNA received a project award from the Naval Postgraduate School’s Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) to investigate the truth of the reports concerning the alleged alert. PASCC is funded by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA).

might have taken some minor actions with respect to Israel’s nuclear forces on his own initiative, but we do not have the evidence to make a firm assessment on this point. While caution is always

Grand Strategy Analysis and Implication for Navy

/analyses/2011/grand-strategy-analysis-and-implication-for-navy

What should the grand strategy of the United States be? The Navy’s Strategy and Planning Division (OPNAV N51) asked CNA to review the state of the policy and academic debate on this issue to inform the Navy’s input into national decision-making and specifically to inform the incoming Chief of Naval Operations. CNA has surveyed and assessed the discourse in key think tanks and the academy on this question. This is important because dramatic developments such as the financial crisis and economic downturn that began in 2008, the continued rapid rise and growth of China, and the unrest in the Middle East have substantially changed the global situation that A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower addressed when it was released in October 2007. These dynamics have persuaded many that a reassessment of American national strategy is needed, and some have concluded that a course change is in order. Indeed, in his outgoing speech in May 2011 Secretary of Defense Robert Gates called for a sober and serious assessment of just what kind of role America, and America’s military, should play in the future. This document seeks to lay out the state of that debate and advise Navy decision-makers and staffs on how best to understand and take advantage of that debate.

, and some have concluded that a course change is in order. Indeed, in his outgoing speech in May 2011 Secretary of Defense Robert Gates called for a sober and serious assessment of just what kind of role

China Pakistan Closer Look

/analyses/2010/china-pakistan-closer-look

On March 31, 2010, CNA China Studies hosted a half-day roundtable to discuss China’s relations with and activities in Pakistan. (Appendix B presents the agenda of this roundtable.) Participants included U.S. government officials, active-duty military personnel, and analysts from think-tanks in Washington and Brussels. This CNA report is based primarily on the presentations, findings, and discussions at the CNA roundtable and supplemented by contextual data and analysis by the author. This report does not represent a fully coordinated consensus of the roundtable participants. Points based on independent research are footnoted as such; points raised by panelists or in the discussion are attributed to the roundtable in the text.

at this juncture share common interests in Pakistan on an existential level, Washington and Beijing have neither the same threat assessment nor the same hierarchy of priorities that could facilitate robust

Why the Emergency Management Community Should be Concerned about Climate Change

/analyses/2010/why-the-emergency-management-community-should-be-concerned-about-climate-change

This report is one of several reports from CNA examining the impact of climate change on U.S. policy. This particular report focuses on the impact of climate change on comprehensive emergency management and preparedness policy. It seeks to outline key climate change issues for consideration from an emergency management perspective and begin a conversation on potential implications for the near-, medium-, and long-terms. It lays the foundation for future dialogue among emergency management practitioners from all levels of government to explore policy solutions in greater depth. The scientific foundation for much of the discussion in this report comes from the recently published report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program— Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States.

of natural hazards such as tropical cyclones, wildfires, floods, and winter storms. Thus, the historical data that are typically the basis of hazard identification and risk assessment may not accurately

Powering Americas Defense

/analyses/2009/powering-americas-defense

To better inform U.S. policymakers and the pub- lic about the impact of America’s energy choices on national security policies, CNA, a nonprofit research organization that runs the Center for Naval Analyses and the Institute for Public Re- search, convened a panel of retired senior mili- tary officers and national security experts. The Military Advisory Board consists of retired generals and admirals from all four services, many of whom served on the Military Advisory Board that produced the 2007 report, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change. That report found that “climate change, national se- curity, and energy dependence are a related set of global challenges.” This new volume builds on that finding by con- sidering the security risks inherent in America’s current energy posture, energy choices the nation can make to enhance our national security, the impact of climate change on our energy choices and our national security, and the role DoD can play in the nation’s approach to energy security. These issues were viewed through the lens of the extensive military experience of the Military Ad- visory Board. The issues were considered solely for their impact on America’s national security.

National Intelligence Assessment confirmed the report finding that cli- mate change is a serious threat to national security and long-term global stability. The MAB, which is comprised of some

Systems Thinking and Wargaming

/analyses/2009/systems-thinking-and-wargaming

Wargaming, in what may be called its modern form, has been around for well over 200 years. Systems thinking and its more complex variant, systems dynamics, have been prominent techniques in management science since the late 1950s. This paper explores the connections between these two powerful tools. It addresses the questions of how wargaming can support those who develop and use systems models, and how such systems models can, in turn, help those who design, control, and play in wargames. These subjects are especially timely because today’s theater commanders and their staffs are challenged to conduct—and assess the effectiveness of—“influence operations.” The nature of these sorts of operations is always changing, and measures of their effectiveness are at best controversial and at worst, non-existent. Wargaming and systems thinking can help.

are thus a matched pair of techniques, which, when used together, can help advance the state of the art of operational and strategic planning and assessment. * Originally published in November 2009

Political Military Trends in Italy Greece and Spain

/analyses/2005/political-military-trends-in-italy-greece-and-spain

These studies of the current geo-political climates in Greece, Italy, and Spain provide an important backdrop to a number of questions relevant to the study of U.S. Navy-host nation cooperation on AT-FP policies. That cooperation takes place within a context shaped by the host nations' security concerns and national politics and the developing security issues of the region. In addition, the overall atmosphere of US-European and US-host nation relations shape the extent to which the U.S. Navy can work with the host nation to craft an effective AT-FP policy for Navy shore establishments. If we are to provide realistic and useful conclusions and recommendation for the Navy's way ahead on this issue, then they must be grounded on a realistic and useful reading of the current state of political and military cooperation, as well as an accurate assessment of differing security interests and areas of possible friction in the future.

on this issue, then they must be grounded on a realistic and useful reading of the current state of political and military cooperation, as well as an accurate assessment of differing security interests