Can Stability Across the Taiwan Strait Hold?

The potential for conflict over Taiwan remains one of the most intractable security dilemmas in Asia and among the most dangerous issues in global politics. It is the main driver of the military dimensions of strategic competition between the US and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The employment of military force by the PRC to determine the island’s future cannot be discounted; however, for more than 40 years, that possibility has been held in check, conflict has been avoided, and a fragile stability has remained in place. This essay examines the factors that have contributed to that stability and identifies ongoing changes that have the potential to undermine it. It assesses that although a war over Taiwan may not be imminent, the factors that previously created and supported relative stability across the Taiwan Strait are no longer fully operative. The situation is entering a potentially dangerous phase that will require careful management by all parties.