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Analytic Framework for Emulating Russian Decision Making

/reports/2017/analytic-framework-for-emulating-russian-decision-making

The purpose of this report is to propose an analytical framework for emulating Russian decision-making in the national security realm. The framework is paired with a methodology that allows the user to systematically examine what Russian decision- making would look like in response to a foreign policy crisis. The framework is presented in the first section and then applied to three potential crisis scenarios in Eastern Europe. The analytical structure presented is meant to be used as a guideline. It offers potential answers, tools, and a systematic method for emulation that allows users to formulate decision-trees for Russian actions on the basis of reasonable assumptions about how Russia might act in various situations. The final product can be further developed and refined on the basis of observation of Russian actions in future interactions with its adversaries and behavior in crisis situations.

of the report is to help emulators develop an understanding of factors that affect Russian decision-making processes and how these processes influence military operational planning in the European theater ... planning process, so much as a focused conversation on how Russia would construct a theory of victory, and attain leverage in a particular crisis. The preference for indirect versus direct approaches ... as constraints on Russian COAs, affecting the Russian government and military’s ability and willingness to escalate a conflict to achieve maximal goals versus de-escalating to avoid potential negative consequences

Kevin Pollpeter-Testimony

/reports/2023/05/kevin-pollpeter-testimony

Kevin Pollpeter, Senior Research Scientist, China Studies, CNA. Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. Hearing on "China’s Pursuit of Defense Technologies: Implications for US and Multilateral Export Control and Investment Screening Regimes" PRC Space and Missile Capabilities

and technology that has resulted in long-term planning, ample funding, a commitment to reforming its program management system, and the recruitment of a younger and better-educated workforce. As a result ... Department assesses is probably intended to become an advanced nuclear delivery system. The PLA’s missile inventory presents several challenges to the US military (see Table 2). The most common US ... to realize what the US military has realized for some time: long-range power projection requires space-based command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance

china ai and autonomy report: Issue 9, February 24, 2022

/our-media/newsletters/china-ai-and-autonomy-report/issue-9

The China AI and Autonomy Report, issue 9, is a biweekly newsletter published by CNA, on artificial intelligence and autonomy in China.

An article in the   People's Liberation Army (PLA) Daily   discusses the nature of "military intelligentization."   PLA Daily , the official newspaper of the PLA, published an article titled   "Scientific Understanding of Military Intelligentization,"   offering an in-depth discussion of the concept. The authors provide a detailed definition of "military intelligentization," which ... like new materials, new energy, and additive manufacturing." Has a "high degree" of direct application in matters of "warfare, national defense, and the military." Greatly expands capabilities

Chinese Views of Civilian Ship Mobilization

/reports/2021/11/chinese-views-of-civilian-ship-mobilization

Key findings from an examination of People’s Liberation Army writings on China’s efforts to leverage its civilian shipping fleet in support of military operations.

civilian shipping fleet in support of military operations. This document summarizes key findings from an examination of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) writings on China’s efforts to leverage its civilian shipping fleet in support of military operations. We analyzed PLA reference volumes, technical journals, and media reports published between 2015 and 2020 to explore continuities and changes to the PLA’s approach to civilian ships amid ongoing military reforms. Civilian ships are an important component of PLA planning for future maritime contingencies. Chinese military authors assert

How Moscow Understands War

/reports/2020/11/how-moscow-understands-war

In this CNA Occasional Paper, Andrew Monaghan examines Russian military strategy. Monaghan frames an analysis of Russian military strategy in terms of sustained Russian debate about the changing character of war, especially since the mid 2010s, and how this debate has recently turned to focus on military strategy in modern conditions. It makes several key arguments. First, history permeates the contemporary Russian debate, featuring both in the way that military experience is rendered into didactic lessons of history to advance military science, and in the arc of the theoretical development of Russian military strategy—it is not possible to parse today’s discussion without knowledge of this history. Second, military strategy is specifically and clearly defined in the Russian lexicon as the “highest sphere of military art,” the art of higher command comprising the bridge between the theory and practice of war. Military strategy is explicitly subordinate to state policy. Third, there are constraints on military strategy, particularly in terms of the implementation of plans. Moscow’s re-examination of military strategy has important implications for Western audiences. While many are focused on Moscow’s measures short of war, this paper highlights the importance that the Russian military still accords the use of armed force. Moreover, it suggests the need to move beyond thinking in terms of the blurring of the lines between war and peace, to the blurring of the lines between the offensive and the defensive.

How Moscow Understands War How Moscow Understands War and Military Strategy In this CNA Occasional Paper, Andrew Monaghan examines Russian military strategy. Monaghan frames an analysis of Russian military strategy in terms of sustained Russian debate about the changing character of war, especially since the mid 2010s, and how this debate has recently turned to focus on military strategy in modern conditions. It makes several key arguments. First, history permeates the contemporary Russian debate, featuring both in the way that military experience is rendered into didactic lessons of history

Refining Plans with Scenario-Based Operational Games

/quick-looks/2020/refining-plans-with-scenario-based-operational-games

CNA’s wargaming experts regularly help these leaders with scenario-based operational planning games that bring structured thinking to the questions they face.

REFINING PLANS WITH SCENARIO-BASED OPERATIONAL GAMES CNA’s wargaming experts regularly help these leaders with scenario-based operational planning games that bring structured thinking to the questions they face. Wars always require an opposing side. Wargames do not. Military commanders routinely use wargames to test their force capabilities against Red Team opponents. Planners, however, may need to test their plans against a challenging environment rather than a Red Team. CNA’s wargaming experts regularly help these leaders with scenario-based operational planning games that bring

Russian Ambiguous Warfare and US Implications

/reports/2015/russian-ambiguous-warfare-and-us-implications

“Ambiguous warfare” is a term that has no proper definition and has been used within U.S. government circles since at least the 1980s. Generally speaking, the term applies in situations in which a state or non-state belligerent actor deploys troops and proxies in a deceptive and confusing manner—with the intent of achieving political and military effects while obscuring the belligerent’s direct participation. Russia’s actions in Crimea and Ukraine clearly align with this concept, though numerous participants pointed out that it is not a new concept for Russia.

and confusing manner—with the intent of achieving political and military effects while obscuring the belligerent’s direct participation. Russia’s actions in Crimea and Ukraine clearly align ... military. In annexing the Crimean peninsula and supporting instability in Ukraine’s eastern provinces, the Russian Federation and its armed forces have used so-called “ambiguous warfare” to great ... of Russia’s success. Drawing out the lessons from Crimea and Ukraine involves seeking the answers to a host of questions, including: What is “ambiguous warfare”? What was the Russians’ military

Wargame Helps a Naval SYSCOM Develop its Wartime Acquisition Response Plan

/quick-looks/2023/wargame-helps-a-naval-syscom-develop-its-wartime-acquisition-response-plan

Discusses the how the development of Warime Acquisition Response Plans (WARP) support the rapid expansion of acquisition capabilities in support of major combat operations.

of military systems, such as ships, aircraft, facilities, and weapons. As China and Russia increase their military capabilities and ambitions, the SYSCOMs must be positioned to quickly respond to emerging ... three Civil Engineer Corps flag officers and the Principal Military Deputy to the Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Research, Development, and Acquisition attended and contributed to the TTX. The final round of the TTX was a scenario-based operational planning game that used a U.S. Indo-Pacific Command scenario, with five turns of play. Participants planned the actions their commands would

Three Questions, Ep. 09: Matthew Grund

/videos/2020/three-questions-ep.-09-matthew-grund

Dr. Grund is a Principal Research Scientist with over 20 years experience leading and supporting a variety of research projects related to military tactical air operations, com-mand and control, targeting, logistics, civilian casualty prevention, military humanitarian assistance/disaster response operations, and domestic disaster response operations—including public and animal health contingencies. A common thread running through this work is an interest in probabilistic reasoning to support policy formulation and deci-sion-making under uncertain conditions. He has worked with a variety of military com-mands, international organizations, U.S. federal agencies, and state agencies to provide analytical support during real-world contingencies and in support of planning and training efforts.

Three Questions, Ep. 09: Matthew Grund Dr. Grund is a Principal Research Scientist with over 20 years experience leading and supporting a variety of research projects related to military tactical air operations, com-mand and control, targeting, logistics, civilian casualty prevention, military humanitarian assistance/disaster response operations, and domestic disaster response operations ... conditions. He has worked with a variety of military com-mands, international organizations, U.S. federal agencies, and state agencies to provide analytical support during real-world contingencies

intersections: Issue 10, June 2024

/our-media/newsletters/intersections/issue-10

Intersections, Issue 10, CNA news digest of China’s efforts to acquire Western technology, U.S. and partner efforts to protect technology for national security.

of Chinese military companies. In addition, Zhongguancun collaborates closely with two of China's elite academic institutions: Peking University and Tsinghua University. Both universities host ... technologies, sensitive datasets, and investments on land close to military sites. The new reforms have also granted the Australian Treasury more power to monitor and enforce the conditions put on foreign ... ) to transfer technology with potential military uses to China. German prosecutors allege that the individuals set up a research transfer agreement with a German university for marine engine technology