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Goodharts Law

/analyses/2022/09/goodharts-law

Goodhart’s Law says, “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.” CNA analysts discuss actions to mitigate the effects of Goodhart’s Law.

, and the use-it-or-lose-it “rule” in Department of Defense program management. The manipulation of measures resulting from Goodhart’s Law is pervasive because direct measures of effectiveness (MOEs), which ... new measurement data, rather than harvesting existing and possibly compromised data Help customers establish authoritative and difficult-to-manipulate definitions for measures Identify and avoid the use of manipulated data and data prone to manipulation Use measurement data not generated by the organization being measured Collect data secretly or after a measurable activity has already

The Impacts of Extreme Weather on Older Adults

/analyses/2024/01/the-impacts-of-extreme-weather-on-older-adults

Older U.S. adults face rising risks of suffering and dying from extreme weather due to climate change and rising numbers of seniors in high-risk locations.

, local, tribal, and territorial emergency management agency (EMA) resources and community resilience. As older adults account for a larger share of our population, EMAs will have to consider ... , and Missouri—focusing on health, housing, and economic effects and how governments (including emergency management) supported older adults during the planning for, response to, and recovery from natural ... weather, this report explores the effects of climate-related extreme weather events on older adults and the current state of federal, state, and local emergency management agencies’ planning, response

Leveraging Existing Training and Educational Assessments through the MAC Process

/quick-looks/2023/leveraging-existing-training-and-educational-assessments-through-the-mac-process

Short report discribes the systematic assessment tool, The Mapping Assessments to Competencies (MAC) Process, developed by CNA and the U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Science.to help evaluate talent management efforts.

, developed by CNA and the U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Science.to help evaluate talent management efforts. The Mapping Assessments to Competencies (MAC) Process , developed by CNA and the U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, is a systematic tool to evaluate whether existing assessment data can be used for talent management efforts. It can help ... education (PME) and operational exercises are two key sources of performance data. Moreover, these assessments may produce additional information about Servicemembers’ competencies that could be used

china ai and autonomy report: Issue 5, December 16, 2021

/our-media/newsletters/china-ai-and-autonomy-report/issue-5

The China AI and Autonomy Report, issue 5, is a biweekly newsletter published by CNA, on artificial intelligence and autonomy in China.

reportedly used AI to make continuous improvements in the weapon's design that “gave the human designers a huge set of optimized data points that nearly doubled the weapon's efficiency compared ... (e.g., algorithms, data processing), intelligent system design, and teaching and guidance abilities. The standards were drafted by a group of organizations that include private companies, state-owned enterprises, industry organizations, and skills centers: Alibaba, Zhejiang Skilled Talents Evaluation Management Service Center, iFlyTek, Baidu, Beijing Xinyun Zhixun Technology, Zhongguancun Robot

Supply Chain Analysis Capabilities and Experience

/quick-looks/2019/supply-chain-analysis-capabilities-and-experience

Six CNA studies on supply chain resilience for emergency management are summarized, focusing on regions networks of lifeline commodities: food, fuel, and water.

Supply Chain Analysis Capabilities and Experience Six CNA studies on supply chain resilience for emergency management are summarized, focusing on regions networks of lifeline commodities: food, fuel, and water. CNA has conducted supply chain resilience after-action analyses in the wake of numerous natural disasters, as well as preparatory supply chain analyses for emergency management agencies ... and analysis organization with a 76-year record of impactful work in the areas of national security, homeland security, and emergency management. Since 1999, CNA has supported local and state clients

Social Media Crisis Communications for Emergency Management

/analyses/2023/10/social-media-crisis-communications-for-emergency-management

Ten top emergency management best practices for social media crisis communications from 17 public information officers in state and local emergency management.

Social Media Crisis Communications for Emergency Management Best Practices in Social Media Crisis Communications for State and Local Emergency Management Agencies Ten top emergency management best practices for social media crisis communications from 17 public information officers in state and local emergency management. Social media is an ever-changing means of communication that poses challenges and enormous opportunities for emergency management agencies. Social media can enable emergency management agencies to provide potentially life-saving information during an emergency or incident

The PLA and Intelligent Warfare Preliminary Analysis

/analyses/2021/10/the-pla-and-intelligent-warfare-preliminary-analysis

China’s army, the PLA, is exploring “intelligent warfare” using AI and autonomous weapons, CNA analysis of PLA writings shows. The US should prepare accordingly.

of data, algorithms, and computing power to intelligent warfare. Data. PRC writers stress that data are the foundation of intelligent warfare. Writers call data the “new oil” and big data ... will become a contest between competing algorithms. Computing power. PRC writers view real-time computing of large amounts of data as essential for intelligent warfare. PRC writers envision ... make several arguments: No matter how advanced intelligent weapons and equipment become, they will still require human innovation, design, production, and management. War is still a conflict between

CNA Secures Second Place in Global Spatial AI Challenge for Wildfire Threat Detection

/our-media/press-releases/2025/6-18

Steven Habicht. The project team, comprised of analysts from CNA’s Center for Data Management and Analytics and Center for Homeland Security and Infrastructure Resilience, created a robust solution ... in the prestigious Spatial AI Challenge 2024 . This global competition tasked researchers and innovators with leveraging artificial intelligence and geospatial data to address pressing sustainability challenges ... existing high-resolution wildfire risk data and transportation layers, the team created and trained a model based on the U-Net deep learning framework to allow rapid wildfire risk evaluation along

Halleh Seyson

/about-us/leadership/institute-for-public-research/halleh-seyson

Halleh Seyson Halleh Seyson Vice President and Director, Enterprise Systems and Data Analysis /images/About-Us/Leadership/halleh-Seyson.webp Halleh Seyson joined CNA in 2021, bringing over 25 years of experience driving change in professional services companies. She is vice president of the Enterprise Systems and Data Analysis Division, providing executive oversight to the Center for Data Management Analytics and the Center for Enterprise Systems Modernization. She spearheads initiatives to modernize complex systems and integrate advanced data analytics, informing high-stakes decision-making

Event Derived Defense Industrial Base Framework

/analyses/2025/10/event-derived-defense-industrial-base-framework

We recommend that DOD prioritize addressing internal deficiencies (e.g., design, testing, and management practices) rather than trying to significantly influence external factors (e.g., workforce and supply chain issues).

, and management practices) rather than trying to significantly influence external factors (e.g., workforce and supply chain issues). Executive Summary Reform is necessary within the US defense industrial base ... because of system complexity and data disaggregation, it is difficult for analyses of the DIB to be based on data while capturing system-wide dynamics. Most analyses are either data based ... with event-based evidence from acquisition programs to construct a novel framework. The framework covers the development, program management, production, and workforce aspects of DOD’s acquisition