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Asking the Right Questions A Framework for Assessing Counterterrorism Actions

/analyses/2016/asking-the-right-questions-a-framework-for-assessing-counterterrorism-actions

Since the attacks on September 11, 2001, the United States has dedicated an extraordinary amount of time, money, and effort to countering terrorism, using a variety of approaches and tools. However, it has devoted comparatively little effort to developing rigorous and useful assessment frameworks to help policymakers and practitioners understand how effective these counterterrorism (CT) actions have been. To address this shortfall, in this paper we first identify and characterize today’s prevailing theories of terrorism and their associated CT actions. For each theory, we then create an assessment framework—consisting of specific questions that need to be answered in order to gauge the success or failure of CT actions, and indicators that could be used to answer those questions. These assessment frameworks—which rigorously link policy to practice—should enable CT practitioners to provide policymakers and commanders direct and actionable feedback on whether the approaches they have chosen to countering terrorist groups are having the impacts they expect and desire.

Summary Report US UK Integration in Helmand

/analyses/2016/summary-report-us-uk-integration-in-helmand

The Commander, U.S. Marine Corps Forces Central Command (COMUSMARCENT) asked CNA, working in partnership with the UK’s Permanent Joint Force Headquarters (PJHQ), to capture insights from U.S.-UK staff integration in Afghanistan. A combined U.S.-UK study team was created, consisting of three CNA analysts from the United States, two UK military officers from PJHQ, and a scientist from the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory. The study team used a hybrid analytic approach involving interviews of U.S. and UK military officers and other subject matter experts, combined with analysis of previous studies and references pertaining to U.S. and UK military operations and integration of forces.

Determining the Statistical Power of the Kolmogorov Smirnov

/analyses/2016/determining-the-statistical-power-of-the-kolmogorov-smirnov

Metrics are often used to compare the performance of newly developed systems with the performance of their predecessors. Metrics can also be used to compare the output of a simulator with real-world data to test the accuracy of the simulation. Statistical comparison of these metrics can be necessary when making such a determination. There are different methods of statistical comparison that are sensitive to the various types of underlying distribution of the metric data. Distribution type can affect the performance of these tests, and, fortunately, the distributions of many common metrics are well known. For example, mean time to repair (MTTR) and mean flight hours between critical failures (MFHBCF), generally follow a log-normal and an exponential distribution, respectively. This paper presents the effects of distribution type and parameters on the statistical power of two common goodness-of-fit tests (Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Anderson-Darling) via Monte Carlo simulation.

Retirement Choice 2016

/analyses/2016/retirement-choice-2016

We find that, for almost all servicemembers, the REDUX retirement plan plus a $30,000 bonus paid at the 15th year of service is a bad choice that significantly reduces their retirement income. The higher the grade, the lower the years of service at retirement, and the longer the servicemember lives, the greater the reduction. Moreover, as each year passes, the difference between REDUX and High-3 retirement income increases.

China Becoming a Maritime Power

/analyses/2016/china-becoming-a-maritime-power

In November 2012, then president Hu Jintao declared that China’s objective was to become a strong or great maritime power. This report, based on papers written by China experts for this CNA project, explores that decision and the implications it has for the United States. It analyzes Chinese thinking on what a maritime power is, why Beijing wants to become a maritime power, what shortfalls it believes it must address in order to become a maritime power, and when it believes it will become a maritime power (as it defines the term). The report then explores the component pieces of China’s maritime power—its navy, coast guard, maritime militia, merchant marine, and shipbuilding and fishing industries. It also addresses some policy options available to the U.S. government to prepare for—and, if deemed necessary, mitigate—the impact that China’s becoming a maritime power would have for U.S. interests.

Cumulative Land Cover Impacts of Proposed Transmission Pipelines in the Delaware River Basin

/analyses/2016/cumulative-land-cover-impacts-of-proposed-transmission-pipelines-in-the-delaware-river-basin

Transmission pipelines function to transport petroleum products over long distances to connect locations where these products are produced or refined to demand centers. The development of Marcellus shale gas with hydraulic fracturing in Pennsylvania has been accompanied by several proposals for new transmission pipelines. At least eight of these proposed transmission pipeline projects will cross the Delaware River Basin (DRB) to bring natural gas produced from the Marcellus shale play to demand centers on the East Coast, or otherwise connect to the larger petroleum products pipeline network. Each proposed interstate pipeline must undergo a review by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), which includes an environmental impact analysis. The potential environmental impacts of pipeline construction include land cover change, deforestation, sedimentation and erosion, water quality degradation, stream degradation, wetland loss, and air emissions, among others. In this report, we investigate the cumulative land cover change impacts for eight proposed transmission pipelines within the DRB, which total 322 miles in length. Specifically, using geographic information systems (GIS) methods, we investigated total land cover change, loss of forest and wetland area, and stream crossings for the eight proposed projects. We found that during construction, the pipelines’ rights-of-way will impact 2,977 acres, including roughly 1,060 acres of forest, and 41 acres of wetlands. The pipelines’ permanent rights-ofway will impact 1,328 acres, including roughly 450 acres of forest, and 22 acres of wetlands. In addition, we identified 175 likely stream crossings where a proposed pipeline route will cross a perennial stream.

The-Impact-of-the-CNOs-Strategic-Studies-Group-1981-1995

/analyses/2016/the-impact-of-the-cnos-strategic-studies-group-1981-1995

Condensed version of Making Captains of War summarizes the impact of the Chief of Naval Operations’ Strategic Studies Group in its first 15 years from 1981.

Improving Lethal Action: Learning and Adapting in U.S. Counterterrorism Operations

/analyses/2014/improving-lethal-action-learning-and-adapting-in-u.s.-counterterrorism-operations

This paper presents a process for the US government to improve the effectiveness of lethal force counterterrorism operations and reduce civilian casualties.

Assessing How Delayed Entry Program Physical Fitness is Related to In-Service Attrition

/analyses/2014/assessing-how-delayed-entry-program-physical-fitness-is-related-to-in-service-attrition

In support of the Marine Corps initiative to expand opportunities for women, CNA analysts examine how the relationships between the Initial Strength Test given to recruits and early attrition, training injury rates and scores on Physical and Combat Fitness tests; and how these relationships vary by gender..

Integration of Female Marine Pilots and Naval Flight Officers 1990-2000

/analyses/2014/integration-of-female-marine-pilots-and-naval-flight-officers-1990-2000

CNA research on the integration of female Marine aviators offers some insights that senior service leaders should consider as they evaluate the expansion of assignments and MOSs for female Marines.