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Great Power Competition in the Indian Ocean

/reports/2018/03/great-power-competition-in-the-indian-ocean

U.S. Navy planners should assume that the PLA Navy’s presence in the western Indian Ocean will grow, and that new bases and places will be organized to support its expanded presence. U.S. authorities can no longer assume unencumbered freedom of action when electing to posture U.S. naval forces offshore of the Horn of Africa and other East African hotspots. If China’s interests are involved and differ from Washington’s, the Chinese could dispatch their own naval forces to the water offshore of the country in question. The U.S. Navy faced similar circumstances between 1968 and 1991, when the United States and the Soviet Union competed for friends, political influence, maritime access, and bases in the western Indian Ocean region. This paper briefly discusses this period in order to provide some historical context for what might occur in the future. As Mark Twain purportedly quipped, “History does not repeat, but it often rhymes.”

and to Europe via the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Chinese strategists are well aware of the fact that potentially hostile naval forces are present in numbers in these waters. For example, its 2015 defense white ... Road, it was necessary for Beijing to back away from its long-standing policy of criticizing other nations’ overseas bases as a feature of hegemonic behavior. Beijing has come to appreciate the value

Redefining Human Control

/reports/2018/03/redefining-human-control

This report examines the issue of human control with regard to lethal autonomy, an issue of significant interest in United Nations discussions in the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) forum. We analyze this issue in light of lessons and best practices from recent U.S. operations. Based on this analysis, we make the case for a wider framework for the application of human control over the use of force. This report recommends that CCW discussions currently focusing on process considerations, such as human control, should instead focus on outcome—namely, mitigation of inadvertent engagements. This allows consideration of a more complete set of benefits and risks of lethal autonomy and better management of risks. The report also describes best practices that can collectively serve as a safety net for the use of lethal autonomous weapons. It concludes with concrete recommendations for how the international community can more effectively address the risk of inadvertent engagements from lethal autonomy.

civilians. Fortunately, these empirical insights point the way toward a more comprehensive solution: a safety net woven from best practices in targeting, policy and testing, with the consideration ... encountered or can easily be identified—including the underwater and air-defense domains. Another element of context is self-defense: should LAWS be handled differently if they are acting in defense of humans

To Counter China’s Economic Threat to US Industry, Seek Resilience, Not Deterrence

/our-media/indepth/2024/11/counter-chinas-economic-threat-with-resilience-not-deterrence

Economic deterrence, a priority in the National Defense Industrial Strategy, is vague and difficult. To compete with China, economic resilience is preferable.

National Defense Industrial Strategy (NDIS) is what DOD describes as a “first of its type” document for strengthening the defense industrial base. By clearly articulating industrial policy objectives ... Indo-Pacific countries that are subject to intense economic and diplomatic influence from China. Labeling a portion of Washington’s defense industrial policy as “deterrence” bolsters China’s argument ... Counter China’s Economic Threat with Resilience, Not Deterrence Economic deterrence, a priority in the National Defense Industrial Strategy, is vague and difficult. To compete with China, economic

Global Issues Beckon Japan’s New Prime Minister

/our-media/indepth/2020/10/global-issues-beckon-japans-new-prime-minister

When Yoshihide Suga succeeded Shinzo Abe as Japan’s prime minister on September 14, many observers anticipated a shift in the government’s focus. Will Suga be pulled in two directions?

& Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Division. With over 35 years of Federal service prior to his retirement, Dr. Linehan’s career with the Department of Defense focused on Asian security affairs. When Yoshihide ... , defense-centric foreign policy and the transformation of Japan’s national security policy. Suga, in contrast, is known for his expertise in domestic policy and might be expected to turn inward to tackle ... brother, Nobuo Kishi (defense minister), Toshimitsu Motegi (foreign minister), and Abe’s former foreign minister and recent defense minister, Taro Kono, as minister for administrative reform — one of Suga

Maternity Leave: More Weeks for Mothers Can Mean More Weeks Worked

/our-media/indepth/2020/03/maternity-leave

Longer paid maternity leave in the Navy increased the number of female sailors who reenlist, reducing what had been a small but persistent gender gap in reenlistment rates in a cost-effective manner.

Readiness Division. In 2015, the Department of the Navy tripled the amount of fully paid leave available to new mothers from 6 to 18 weeks. And though the Department of Defense forced the Department of the Navy to eventually scale back their leave to 12 weeks in order to create a consistent policy across the services, the large increase in maternity leave created a quasi-experiment on the impact ... the effect that the expanded maternity leave policy — combining the 18- and 12-week policies — had on the reenlistment of female sailors. The results of this study indicate that longer paid maternity

Is the U.S. Close to War with China?

/our-media/indepth/2022/08/is-the-u.s.-close-to-a-war-with-china

Adm. Michael McDevitt provides context to understand the chances of war or peace between China, Taiwan and the U.S. following Nancy Pelosi’s visit.

with China over Taiwan? Does the U.S. have a defense obligation to Taiwan? Why does China care so much about Taiwan? In 1949 the Chinese Civil War essentially ended when the Chinese Communist Party ... , and by 1955 had signed a defense treaty with the Republic of China (ROC). In the United Nations, Washington led a successful attempt to keep Mao’s People's Republic of China (PRC) out ... as the sole legal Government of China. The Carter Administration also simultaneously terminated official diplomatic relations with the government in Taiwan and abrogated its defense treaty. Since

Elections in South Korea and the Philippines: Opportunities for Deeper U.S. Security Cooperation

/our-media/indepth/2022/03/elections-in-south-korea-and-the-philippines

James Bellacqua discusses how elections in South Korea and the Philippines could lead to greater security cooperation with the U.S.

Manila's foreign policy away from Washington's orbit, Marcos has described U.S.-Philippine ties as a "special relationship" and the defense treaty between them as "very important." Marcos has also ... of the race and threw his support behind Yoon. Although the alliance with the U.S. is likely to remain the cornerstone of South Korea's security policy regardless of which candidate wins, the two have significant differences on other foreign policy issues. Lee seeks continuity: maintaining and upgrading ties with Washington while engaging with Pyongyang and pursuing a pragmatic approach

Building Real Cooperation with South-East Asian Partners

/our-media/indepth/2021/08/building-real-cooperation-with-south-east-asian-partners

Since coming into office, the Biden administration has stressed the importance of partners and allies to its Indo-Pacific strategy as it shapes its approach toward competition with China.

Affairs Program. He is an expert in Chinese politics and Chinese foreign policy and security issues. Last week, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin became the first member of President Biden’s ... , and followed that up with an invitation to President Moon Jae-in of Korea in May . While perhaps late in coming for some in the region, Defense Secretary Austin’s trip will work in concert ... remains a cornerstone of the Biden administration’s policy in the region. Singapore, the Philippines and Vietnam are each important security partners for the United States as it seeks

Impending Election Could Dramatically Shift Korean Relations

/our-media/indepth/2025/03/election-could-dramatically-shift-korean-relations

South Korea's 2025 presidential election after President Yoon’s impeachment could greatly affect relations with the United States, Japan, China, and North Korea.

it possible to estimate how South Korea’s future foreign policy objectives might shape those relations. The path to the impending election began with the imposition of martial law by South Korean ... taken a firm stance against China and fully supported the US. This aligned with Yoon’s foreign policy goal of turning South Korea into a “ global pivotal state ,” increasing the country’s ... continue a cooperative, trilateral relationship, although it is unclear how comprehensive the policy would be. The opposition party noted in the first impeachment motion that Yoon had a “strange

Africa is China’s Testing Ground for Overseas Military Missions

/our-media/indepth/2024/10/africa-is-chinas-testing-ground-for-overseas-military-missions

China’s military activities in Africa—including its first overseas military base—have become entrenched. China has ambitions for a deeper African presence.

The Military and Security Dimensions of the PRC’s Africa Presence: Changes in a Time of Global Shocks along with colleagues from CNA’s China Studies Program and Strategy and Policy Analysis Program ... . The Growth of China’s Military Presence in Africa   Africa has long played a prominent role in the PRC’s concept of its foreign policy . But only in the last two decades has Africa also become ... in Africa is a significant shift in its foreign policy after decades of criticizing the West as “expansionist military powers” for having overseas bases. The PRC maintains roughly 4,100 PLA