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What Makes Great Power Relations and Why Compete

/reports/2020/01/what-makes-great-power-relations-and-why-compete

What does “great power competition” mean? Why might it be happening? This paper deconstructs such questions.

to compete? Are there other ways to describe how great powers interact, other than through competition? To answer these questions, this paper explores GPC through the lens of the international relations (IR) frameworks that underpin our understanding of national security. Our objective is to provide policymakers with a richer strategic context surrounding GPC and offer more tools to shape US ... of stable definitions for what constitutes a great power, it is difficult to make judgements about the status of the evolving international system. Without a clear outline of  that structure

Proxy Warfare

/reports/2019/07/proxy-warfare

Proxy warfare—that is, conflict in which a “major power instigates or plays a major role in supporting and directing to a conflict but does only a small portion of the actual fighting itself”—is receiving new attention from policymakers, analysts, and practitioners. This study uses a series of four case studies on US involvement in proxy war (the “Secret War” in Laos, the Contras in Central America, the African Union Mission in Somalia, and the Syrian Defense Forces) to develop a set of key themes. These themes, in turn, form the basis of a set of rules of thumb to guide senior decisionmakers as they contemplate the future use of proxy forces. Finally, this report discusses implications for U.S. Special Operations Forces, which are likely to play an increasingly important role in supporting U.S. proxies.

of international politics throughout recorded history, and indirect conflict through surrogates is—and is likely to remain—an enduring feature of the international security environment. In the years ... , although the United States has had extensive experience employing proxies before, during, and since the Cold War, changes in the security landscape, including the emergence of the so-called era ... security. Proxies who believe that the United States “has their back” no matter what will be tempted to engage in high-risk behavior on the battlefield. Beyond that, their interests may be contrary

Mapping Russian Media Network

/reports/2018/01/mapping-russian-media-network

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has used media as an important instrument and lever of influence. The role of media in promoting Russian foreign policy and exerting the influence of President Vladimir Putin has become increasingly visible since the conflict Ukraine and other domestic and international confrontations began. CNA has undertaken an effort to map the Russian media environment and examine Russian decision-making as it relates to the media. This report provides an overview of the role that the media plays in Russian foreign policy. Specifically, we examine Russia’s media environment, Russia’s decision- making related to media and messaging, including the drivers and boundaries of that decision-making. We evaluate the role of Vladimir Putin and his inner circle, and finally, we examine the role that Russia’s media and messaging plays in external influence. In addition, we highlight that while media is a key instrument of influence, culture, politics, and business are also important in broader Russian influence efforts abroad. Furthermore, this report outlines the way that decision-making and messaging is carried out by Vladimir Putin and his closest advisors through a series of scenarios that range from crisis to steady state. Finally, we provide overarching takeaways for policy makers and the international community to consider in understanding Russia’s media environment and Russian decision-making in the media.

Ukraine and other domestic and international confrontations began. CNA has undertaken an effort to map the Russian media environment and examine Russian decision-making as it relates to the media ... , we provide overarching takeaways for policy makers and the international community to consider in understanding Russia’s media environment and Russian decision-making in the media. Throughout ... in the international system. To better understand these dynamics, CNA has initiated a study that maps Russia’s media network and the decision-making process of President Putin and his advisors. CNA gathered data

ai with ai: Tempus Fluit

/our-media/podcasts/ai-with-ai/season-4/4-17

In COVID-related AI news, Andy and Dave discuss research from Texas &AM, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, and SNY Binghamton, which demonstrates an automatic system for monitoring the physical distance and face mask wearing of construction workers; demonstrating how surveillance is rapidly becoming a widely available commodity technology. In regular news, the National Security Commission on AI releases its draft final report, which makes sweeping recommendations on AI as a constellation of technologies. The nominee for Deputy Secretary of Defense, Kathleen Hicks, mentions AI and the JAIC at several points during her testimony. The Information Technology & Innovation Foundation releases a report on “Who Is Winning the AI Race,” using 30 different metrics to assess nations’ progress in AI. Amnesty International launches a campaign against facial recognition, dubbed “Ban the Scan.” And Scatter Lab pulls its Korean chatbot Lee Luda, after it started responding with racist and sexist comments to user inputs. In three “quick” research items, researchers at Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School show that single neurons can encode information about others’ beliefs. Researchers at MIT and the Institute of Science and Technology Austria introduce a new class of time-continuous recurrent neural network models, which they dub liquid time-constant networks; the approach reduces the size of networks by nearly two orders of magnitude for some tasks. And researchers at the University of Toronto, Microsoft Research, and Cornell University show that Maia, a custom version of AlphaZero, can learn to predict human actions, rather than the most likely winning move. The report of the week looks at The Immigration Preferences of Top AI Researchers. And the book of the week contains almost 40 chapters and 60 authors on a variety of special operations-related topics, in Strategic Latency Unleashed. Listener Survey

mask wearing of construction workers; demonstrating how surveillance is rapidly becoming a widely available commodity technology. In regular news, the National Security Commission on AI releases its ... International launches a campaign against facial recognition, dubbed “Ban the Scan.” And Scatter Lab pulls its Korean chatbot Lee Luda, after it started responding with racist and sexist comments to user ... “Just” AI National Security Commission on AI: Draft Final Report Report (130 Pages) Video Proceedings – Day 1 (3 hours) Video Proceedings – Day 1 (2.5 hours) AI comes up

ai with ai: Self-aware Bag of Atomic Camels

/our-media/podcasts/ai-with-ai/season-2/2-16

For research topics, Andy and Dave discuss the task-agnostic self-modeling machine from Columbia University, a robotic arm that learns to build an approximate model of itself and then interact with the world; they also discuss the over-hyped reporting of the research. A much less hyped, but possibly more groundbreaking research from MIT results in a robot that can play the tower-block game Jenga, using multisensory fusion to do so. More research from MIT attempts to synthesize probabilistic programs for automatic data modeling. Research from the University of Tubingen shows that approximating convolutional neural nets with bag-of-local-features modeling yields decent results with ImageNet. And the University of Washington and the Allen Institute for AI announce the Atlas of Machine Commonsense (ATOMIC), a collection of 877k textual descriptions of inferential knowledge, which allows more accurate inference for previously unseen events. In announcements of the week, DARPA announces the Competency-Aware Machine Learning (CAML) program for ML systems to assess their own performance; and Measuring Biological Aptitude (MBA) attempts to link genotype to phenotype in order to improve recruiting, training, and other aspects. The U.S. Navy’s Sea Hunter drone ship completes an autonomous trip from San Diego to Hawaii and back. The "Papers with Code" archive attempts to collect and link ML-related papers, code, and evaluation tables. The U.S. Army activates its AI Task Force at Carnegie Mellon. And the International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR) 2019 has been announced for 6-9 May 2019. In media of the week, the World Intellectual Property Organization releases its report on the Technology Trends of 2019; the AMA Journal of Ethics publishes an entire (open-access) issue devoted to AI in health care; the Congressional Research Service updates its report on AI and National Security; Dan Simmons provides a hefty tome on Evolutionary Optimization Algorithms, and Julian Togelius publishes a book on Playing Smart. Wake Word is the Game of the Week, and in videos, Super Bowl ads provided a variety of glimpses into life with robots.

and link ML-related papers, code, and evaluation tables. The U.S. Army activates its AI Task Force at Carnegie Mellon. And the International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR) 2019 has been ... (open-access) issue devoted to AI in health care; the Congressional Research Service updates its report on AI and National Security; Dan Simmons provides a hefty tome on Evolutionary Optimization Algorithms ... ) "Papers With Code" archive "State of the Art AI" archive site "Papers with Code" archive site Carnegie Mellon Hosts Activation of U.S. Army AI Task Force International Conference

Mobilizing Cooperation to Advance National Security

/initiatives/national-security-seminar/nss-2022-events

security — both international and domestic — has become increasingly critical to meeting security challenges in areas such as the Arctic, military application of commercial drones, and supply of critical minerals. The 2022 National Security Seminar series explored how US policymakers simultaneously confront shared challenges and strategic competition while leaning into a culture of cooperation ... NSS 2022 Events Mobilizing Cooperation to Advance National Security National Security Seminar Events | 2022 Season The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party: Foreign Policy

Were the Afghan National Security Forces Successful

/reports/2014/were-the-afghan-national-security-forces-successful

With all of the recent developments pertaining to a possible bilateral security agreement (BSA) regarding future troop presence and military cooperation between the United States and Afghanistan, another important aspect of the future of Afghanistan has gotten much less attention. The Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) just finished their first year of being fully in the lead for providing security in Afghanistan, with the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in support. With 2013 behind us, it is time to take stock of how the ANSF performed.

Were the Afghan National Security Forces Successful Were the Afghan National Security Forces Successful in 2013? With all of the recent developments pertaining to a possible bilateral security agreement (BSA) regarding future troop presence and military cooperation between the United States and Afghanistan, another important aspect of the future of Afghanistan has gotten much less attention. The Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) just finished their first year of being fully in the lead for providing security in Afghanistan, with the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF

russian media analysis: Issue 5, December 5, 2021

/our-media/newsletters/russian-media-analysis/issue-5

Russian Perspectives on Western Military Activities

. Kartapolov discusses Russia's relations with US and NATO In an interview with Fyodor Lukyanov for Russia in Global Affairs and the TV show International Review, Andrey Kartapolov—the former deputy minister of defense and now chair of the Defense Committee of the Russian Duma—discusses the current security situation and Russia's relations with the West. The discussion focuses on the Ukraine ... of cybercrime to undermining the security of major powers, while the second sketches out the ongoing information war waged by the West against Russia. 8. Scandinavian geopolitics and integration with NATO

russian media analysis: Issue 4, November 17, 2021

/our-media/newsletters/russian-media-analysis/issue-4

Russian Perspectives on Western Military Activities

both the continuation of tensions and efforts to secure long-term security guarantees for Russia. He further discusses the situation in Belarus and challenges in Russia's relations with the EU, NATO ... and wide-ranging interview with Sergey Karaganov—the head of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy and dean of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at Moscow's Higher School ... to France for dialogue with their French counterparts in the 2+2 format focused on regional security, strategic stability, and other issues. The paper provides quotes from Shoigu and Lavrov offering

NSS Event September 23 2022

/reports/2023/05/nss-event-september-23-2022

The Russia-Ukraine war is a proving ground for combat tactics for commercial drones and UAVs, an expert panel with Bendett told CNA’s National Security Seminar.

with Bendett told CNA’s National Security Seminar. On September 23, 2022, CNA’s National Security Seminar Series hosted a virtual panel discussion on the use of drones in Ukraine and the implications ... American Security; Dr. Heather M. Roff, a Senior Research Scientist with CNA’s Special Activities and Intelligence Program and an expert in emerging military technologies; and Faine Greenwood, a senior ... was moderated by Jeffrey Edmonds, a Senior Research Scientist with CNA’s Russia Studies Program and a former Director for Russia on the National Security Council. Messrs. Bendett and Edmonds reported