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PRC Economic Activity in the Arctic

/reports/2022/03/prc-economic-activity-in-the-arctic

On March 14, 2022, CNA hosted a National Security Seminar on Arctic investment and economic activity by the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

and the potential for further investments in both natural resource extraction efforts and international trade flows through the region. Mr. Rosen and Ms. Holz discussed a recent CNA project on Arctic foreign ... military interests may factor in the medium to long term, for the time being, economic strategy remains the key driver of PRC Arctic policy. Julian G. Waller /reports/2022/03

Views of China Workshop

/reports/2020/03/views-of-china-workshop

On June 17 and 18, 2019, CNA held a two-day workshop entitled “Views of China’s Presence in the Indian Ocean Region.” This workshop aimed to assess the reaction to China’s economic and military activities of IOR stakeholders from a wide range of IO littoral countries, as well as external countries with stakes in the IOR. This paper synthesizes the insights gained from presentations, workshop discussion, and participant papers prepared for this workshop.

of the world, has further boosted China’s maritime presence. China’s commercial dominance in the IOR is also reinforced by its launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Xi Jinping’s foreign policy initiative

Report of Chinas Presence in the Indian Ocean

/reports/2020/04/report-of-chinas-presence-in-the-indian-ocean

On June 17 and 18, 2019, CNA held a two-day workshop entitled “Views of China’s Presence in the Indian Ocean Region.” This workshop aimed to assess the reaction to China’s economic and military activities of IOR stakeholders from a wide range of IO littoral countries, as well as external countries with stakes in the IOR. This paper synthesizes the insights gained from presentations, workshop discussion, and participant papers prepared for this workshop.

foreign policy initiative designed in part to construct infrastructure projects around the world. For US Navy (USN) planners, these developments raise serious concerns regarding the potential strategic

Proxy Warfare

/reports/2019/07/proxy-warfare

Proxy warfare—that is, conflict in which a “major power instigates or plays a major role in supporting and directing to a conflict but does only a small portion of the actual fighting itself”—is receiving new attention from policymakers, analysts, and practitioners. This study uses a series of four case studies on US involvement in proxy war (the “Secret War” in Laos, the Contras in Central America, the African Union Mission in Somalia, and the Syrian Defense Forces) to develop a set of key themes. These themes, in turn, form the basis of a set of rules of thumb to guide senior decisionmakers as they contemplate the future use of proxy forces. Finally, this report discusses implications for U.S. Special Operations Forces, which are likely to play an increasingly important role in supporting U.S. proxies.

—their relatively low cost, their disposability, and their deniability— suggests that their continued use will prove to be an attractive foreign policy option for the United States and its rivals

Impending Election Could Dramatically Shift Korean Relations

/our-media/indepth/2025/03/election-could-dramatically-shift-korean-relations

South Korea's 2025 presidential election after President Yoon’s impeachment could greatly affect relations with the United States, Japan, China, and North Korea.

it possible to estimate how South Korea’s future foreign policy objectives might shape those relations. The path to the impending election began with the imposition of martial law by South Korean ... taken a firm stance against China and fully supported the US. This aligned with Yoon’s foreign policy goal of turning South Korea into a “ global pivotal state ,” increasing the country’s ... Japan-centered foreign policy,” indicating that a DPK president is unlikely to emphasize trilateral cooperation. Unlike Yoon, who was selective in engaging in historical debates with Japan, Lee remains firm

Why Are Special Operations Ever Conducted?

/our-media/indepth/2020/11/why-are-special-operations-ever-conducted

Anyone who has watched popular films such as Zero Dark Thirty, 12 Strong, Lone Survivor, or Blackhawk Down has to wonder: why are special operations ever conducted in the first place?

form of popular support to maintain their positions of power, they are also inherently averse to taking risky actions. Thus, when considering solutions to various policy problems, they will seek and select options that present the lowest overall risk—both the risk of failure in resolving the policy problem and the risk of negative blowback. For problems that are inherently easy, policy-makers ... orthodox (standard) means, and because standard (orthodox) solutions engender the lowest risk of blowback. The figure below shows various types of operations according to the nature of the policy problem

Global Issues Beckon Japan’s New Prime Minister

/our-media/indepth/2020/10/global-issues-beckon-japans-new-prime-minister

When Yoshihide Suga succeeded Shinzo Abe as Japan’s prime minister on September 14, many observers anticipated a shift in the government’s focus. Will Suga be pulled in two directions?

, defense-centric foreign policy and the transformation of Japan’s national security policy. Suga, in contrast, is known for his expertise in domestic policy and might be expected to turn inward to tackle ... brother, Nobuo Kishi (defense minister), Toshimitsu Motegi (foreign minister), and Abe’s former foreign minister and recent defense minister, Taro Kono, as minister for administrative reform — one of Suga’s pet policy issues. Aside from domestic economic issues, national security and foreign policy challenges loom ahead from a surging, economically muscular, and militarily assertive China

What is a Chinese Communist Party Plenum?

/our-media/indepth/2024/06/what-is-a-chinese-communist-party-plenum

Plenums of the Central Committee help assess future directions for China. The Third Plenum on economic issues is of critical interest for US national security.

, these events also tell us what issues China’s leaders have come to agreement on and signal policy guidance that may be forthcoming. The 2024 Third Plenum CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping has taken ... Party Congress.  --> Plenums: Typical Topics First Party Personnel Appointments Second Government personnel appointments Third Economic policy and related reforms ... ’s party bureaucracy operates if they are to create effective counter-strategies. Second, many PRC policies that sound purely economic have national security implications. Making sense of PRC policy

Private Sector Sanctions on Russia

/our-media/indepth/2022/03/private-sector-sanctions-on-russia

John Milton examines how the withdrawal of American corporations from Russia in the wake of the war in Ukraine demonstrates a new form of geopolitical pressure.

on the backburner of U.S. foreign policy for decades. Geoeconomics , or the use of economic power to achieve geopolitical goals and/or exert geopolitical pressure, was a common component of U.S. foreign policy from the early republic (e.g., the Louisiana Purchase) until the latter half of the Cold War. After the Vietnam War , the U.S. fell into a comfort zone of over-relying on military options ... foreign policy. First, the U.S. has long wielded unparalleled conventional military power. With consistently the highest global defense budget , the U.S. has maintained its battlefield supremacy

What Did the Summit of The Americas Accomplish?

/our-media/indepth/2022/06/summit-of-the-americas-in-review

The Ninth Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles exposed rocky U.S. relations with Latin America, due to regional turmoil and U.S. paralysis, writes Ralph Espach.

. /images/InDepth/American%20States%20Flag.jpg What Did the Summit of The Americas Accomplish? Ralph Espach Ralph Espach is a Senior Research Scientist in CNA's Strategy and Policy Analysis Program . He ... President Mike Pence instead), the United States hoped that this event would disprove the common observation that Washington was rudderless in its regional policy. By attending in person, along with the Vice ... — and a confusing agreement among 20 nations’ leaders to accept more foreign refugees and migrants in exchange for international assistance. Summits of the Americas do not generally create action . Still