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Dimensions of Autonomous Decision Making

/analyses/2021/12/dimensions-of-autonomous-decision-making

We identify the dimensions of autonomous decision-making—the potential risk that one should consider before transferring decision-making to an intelligent autonomous system.

obligations. The risk elements can also be used by military commanders as a (measurable and testable) pre-operational risk assessment “checklist” to ensure that autonomous systems are not used in an unethical manner. In this way, the Department of Defense (DOD) can make fully informed risk assessment decisions before developing or deploying autonomous systems. Because our study results were specifically

Center for Homeland Security and Infrastructure Resilience

/centers-and-divisions/ipr/hsir

Uses data-driven methods to help clients analyze and enhance programs, policies, and operations supporting homeland security.

/HomelandSecurity.jpg gray Infrastructure Planning Strategic Plan for Critical Infrastructure Assessment Radiological/Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Threat Management Guides for State

National Security in a Post-Pandemic World

/initiatives/national-security-seminar/nss-2021-events

  This event took place on September 16. Featuring: General James T. Conway (USMC, ret.), 34th Commandant of the Marine Corps,  Dr. Jamie M. Morin , former Director of Cost Assessment and Program

Diagnosing the Boko Haram Conflict

/analyses/2015/diagnosing-the-boko-haram-conflict

The intent of this report is to provide the appropriate type of information—at the appropriate level of granularity—in order to inform U.S. government efforts to develop more effective approaches to countering Boko Haram. The goal is to help U.S. planners and decision-makers understand the conflict as an interconnected system and, eventually, to develop targeted, conflict-sensitive strategies for assisting the Nigerian government. Specifically, this report seeks to diagnose and dissect the conflict by identifying relevant political, economic, social, and security factors at work in northeast Nigeria, by analyzing how key actors mobilize grievances and institutional resiliencies to drive or mitigate conflict, and by forecasting how conflict dynamics might evolve in the future.

in the future. To achieve this, we conducted a conflict assessment, which is an analytical process undertaken to identify and understand the dynamics of violence and instability, and to develop

Rethinking the US Approach to Boko Haram

/analyses/2015/rethinking-the-us-approach-to-boko-haram

U.S. Naval Forces Africa asked CNA to recommend an approach for the United States government (USG) to counter Boko Haram. The USG has been working with the government of Nigeria (GoN) to defeat the group, but the two governments are taking divergent approaches and efforts to date have not been effective. The GoN is taking a narrow counterterrorism approach that relies heavily on the military, whereas a broader whole-of-government approach is required. Due to the political dynamics in Nigeria, the USG has few ways to change the GoN’s approach to the conflict. We propose that the USG and other supporting partners focus on assisting Chad, Niger, and Cameroon to become increasingly able to prevent Boko Haram from taking root within their borders. While this would not dismantle Boko Haram in the near term, it could buy time for conditions in Nigeria to become more favorable to direct U.S. assistance.

the group. Despite these efforts, however, a balanced assessment of the situation in northeast Nigeria reveals that the threat from Boko Haram is growing. There are now regular reports that Boko Haram has

Mobilizing Compatriots Russias Strategy

/analyses/2015/mobilizing-compatriots-russias-strategy

As part of its wider efforts to assess the implications of Russia’s foreign and national security policy, CNA initiated this study to examine Russia’s objectives, policy, and strategic and operational calculus with respect to ethnic Russian, Russian-speaking, and other potentially sympathetic populations residing in other former Soviet states. This is a quick-response, three-month effort designed to stimulate public discourse around Russia’s efforts to use these communities, which Moscow defines as compatriots, to further its policy goals. The study highlights several important implications that U.S. policy-makers may consider in formulating policy toward Russia and the countries in which these compatriot populations reside. After releasing this report, the study team plans to organize an event to discuss these topics at CNA headquarters in fall 2015.

have sought to provide a preliminary assessment of Moscow’s perspectives, policies, strategic calculus, and operational instruments in dealing with these groups, which the Russian government describes

Potential Environmental Impact from Fracking in the Delaware River Basin

/analyses/2015/potential-environmental-impact-from-fracking-in-the-delaware-river-basin

This study aims to model the landscape of the Marcellus Shale region to predict how it may change in the future in response to the expansion of natural gas extraction, and, in particular, what impact this may have on the Delaware River Basin (DRB). Our approach combined geospatial analysis and statistical modeling to create a probability surface that predicts the most favorable locations for the placement of future wells based on the location of existing wells. Using the probability surface and an estimate of the number of wells that would be needed to fully exploit the shale resource, we estimated the future landscape of development in the Interior Marcellus Shale and DRB. Using affected subwatersheds and counties as study areas, we then investigated potential impacts associated with land cover, water and wastewater management, water quality due to changes in land cover, air emissions, and health risk factors. The results are intended to help decision-makers and the public

of wells. Few studies have considered multiple impacts, and no study has provided a reasonably complete, integrated regional environmental assessment of fracking. We aim to help fill this knowledge gap

North Korean Leadership Dynamics

/analyses/2014/north-korean-leadership-dynamics

Kim Jong-il’s death in December 2011 brought about the hereditary transition of power to a third generation. Kim Jong-un assumed the mantle of Supreme Leader.

COP-2014-U-006988-Final A Second Year Assessment

South China Sea US Policy Options

/analyses/2014/south-china-sea-us-policy-options

The aim of this report is to propose additional policy options that the United States might pursue in the South China Sea. To this end it provides a detailed recounting of existing U.S. policy toward the South China Sea. It concludes by recommending additional policy approaches aimed toward generating a more peaceful, stable, non- confrontational, law abiding environment in the South China Sea. Along the way it will address the U.S. interests that are involved in the South China Sea. It will briefly explain what international laws apply to the South China Sea, and detail the “rules” that Washington’s policy insists all parties follow. It will then provide an overview of the legal merits of the respective claims to the islands and features in the South China Sea. The legal overview is presented not to argue for a change to existing U.S. policy of not taking a position on sovereignty claims, but to provide policy-makers with some understanding of the legal complexity of the claims issue.

generating a more peaceful, stable, non- confrontational, law abiding environment in the South China Sea. It also addresses U.S. interests, a legal assessment of sovereignty claims, and a primer on the “rules

Philippine Claims in South China Sea

/analyses/2014/philippine-claims-in-south-china-sea

This is the third of three legal analyses commissioned as part of a project entitled “U.S. Policy Options in the South China Sea.” Experienced U.S. international lawyers, such as Captain Mark Rosen, Judge Advocate General’s Corps, USN (ret.),1 the author of this analysis, were asked to test the various legal arguments that Vietnam, China, Malaysia, Brunei, and the Philippines make in support of their claims, weigh them against the body of international case law associated with maritime disputes of this sort, and, if possible, reach a judgment on which country’s claim is superior. Importantly, this analysis of Philippine claims to Scarborough Shoal and features in the Spratly archipelago was not undertaken as a prelude to a recommendation that the United States depart from its long-held position of not taking a position on competing sovereignty claims in the South China Sea. That is not the intent of the project; nor is it one of the recommendations.

to sovereignty, in order to offer an objective assessment of which claims are superior. Mark E. Rosen /reports/2014/iop-2014-u-008435.pdf /reports/2014/iop-2014-u-008435_Page_01.jpg /reports/2014/scs