Russia Studies Program

Samuel Bendett says, “Ukrainians have reached some of those fortifications and continue their slow advance through them. Of course this leads to the question as to whether or not this is the breakthrough that everyone was waiting for. Everybody is exercising caution and trying to analyze this simply because Russian defenses in the south are so prevalent and well-organized.”

Samuel Bendett says, "If this strike happened as it did, it probably confirms that this particular drone may have been operated by Russia's Special Forces, who are Lancet's regular users."

Samuel Bendett says, “Controlling Crimea is essential if Russia wants to maintain its war effort and to keep Ukraine off balance and to maintain its positions in the territories it already captured.”

Dmitry Gorenburg says “While they can definitely hit targets from Novorossiysk, it’s farther away, so the more distant targets are out of reach. Plus, the number of missile carriers has been reduced somewhat with the elimination of the Kilo sub. So not a game-changer in terms of capability, but definitely a reduction.”

Michael Kofman says there’s “a realistic possibility of Ukrainian forces breaking through Russian lines,” as “the momentum has picked up and the dynamic has somewhat changed in the last couple of weeks.” But even he cautions that war “isn’t a parlor game where one can gamble and easily predict outcomes.”

Samuel Bendett says that he believes Russian forces had a limited number of these UAVs, with plans to significantly ramp up production in 2023.

Samuel Bendett says, “Ultimately the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un served to reinforce Russia’s alliances. Russia is taking significant measures to demonstrate to its allies around the world like Iran and China and North Korea that it is still a viable partner, and this meeting resulted in a potential transfer of a larger number of key artillery shells and munitions to the Russian military.”