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China Military Support Facility in Djibouti

/analyses/2017/china-military-support-facility-in-djibouti

In November 2015, China publicly acknowledged for the first time that it is building its first overseas military facility in Djibouti, which is also home to the largest U.S. military installation in Africa. How did China come to establish its first overseas military support facility in Djibouti? What do we know about this facility and how it might be used, and what insights can we glean from the process to better understand where China’s military might go next? This paper provides a preliminary look at the origins of China’s military support facility in Djibouti. It explores the evolution of the economic and security relations between the two countries that led to the establishment of the facility, how it may be used, and what it may tell us about future Chinese military facilities abroad. It also assesses the implications of the growing economic and military ties between the two countries for the United States and the U.S. Navy.

/centers-and-divisions/cna/rsp/china-studies DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited. PUBLIC RELEASE. 6/15/2017 84 DIM-2017-U-015308-Final3 Patrick deGategno

Unconstrained FDI Arctic Security

/analyses/2017/unconstrained-fdi-arctic-security

The earth’s polar environments are often thought of as barren, desolate regions ruled by polar bears and covered in ice. And while certainly cold, the Arctic region is far from a valueless waste. Rich in mineral, metal, oil, and gas deposits, as well as vast, unexploited fisheries, the Arctic contains resources estimated to be worth many billions of dollars. About 70 percent of these resources fall within the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of the Arctic littoral states: Canada, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, and the United States. Much of history’s interest in the Arctic has been confined to the explorer’s curiosity and the admiral’s desk. However, we are entering a new era for the Arctic, in which interest in the region and its resources is at an all-time high. Outside states, such as China, have made substantial investments with the strategic intent to do more. The question remains whether the legal and regulatory environment is capable of dealing with significant new foreign direct investment while at the same time protecting the Arctic Ocean and surrounding environment.

/reports/2017/COP-2017-U-015944-1Rev_Page_01.jpg /reports/2017/iceberg.jpg Strategy and Policy Analysis /centers-and-divisions/cna/rsp/strategy-and-policy-analysis DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution

AI and Autonomy Opportunities and Challenges

/analyses/2017/ai-and-autonomy-opportunities-and-challenges

The military is on the cusp of a major technological revolution, in which warfare is conducted by unmanned and increasingly autonomous weapon systems. This exploratory study considers the state-of-the-art of artificial intelligence (AI), machine- learning, and robot technologies, and their potential future military implications for autonomous (and semi-autonomous) weapon systems. Although no one can predict how AI will evolve or how it will affect the development of military autonomous systems, we can anticipate many of the conceptual, technical, and operational challenges that DOD will face as it increasingly turns to AI-based technologies. We identified four key gaps facing DOD as the military evolves toward an “autonomy era”: (1) a mismatch of timescales between the pace of commercial innovation and DOD’s acquisition process; (2) an underappreciation of the fundamental unpredictability of autonomous systems; (3) a lack of a universally agreed upon conceptual framework for autonomy; and (4) a disconnect between the design of autonomous systems and CONOPS development. We examine these gaps, provide a roadmap of opportunities and challenges, and identify areas of future studies.

. Andrew Ilachinski /reports/2017/DIS-2017-U-016388-Final.pdf /reports/2017/DIS-2017-U-016388-Final_Page_01.jpg /reports/2017/thinker%202.jpg Cyber Research Program /centers-and-divisions/cna

Russias Approach to Cyber Warfare

/analyses/2017/russias-approach-to-cyber-warfare

This paper is an attempt to address these issues as they pertain to a particularly potent cyber adversary: Russia. Russia’s cyber capabilities are highly advanced, and Moscow has demonstrated a willingness to employ offensive cyber in situations other than war to affect political and economic outcomes in neighboring states and to deter its adversaries.

/centers-and-divisions/cna/rsp/russia-studies DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited. PUBLIC RELEASE. 3/24/2017 38 DOP-2016-U-014231-1Rev

THE ROLE OF WATER STRESS IN INSTABILITY AND CONFLICT

/analyses/2017/the-role-of-water-stress-in-instability-and-conflict

This report examines the role of water across a spectrum from civil unrest and localized violence to terrorism, insurgencies, and civil wars to state-on-state conflict. Focusing on water-stressed areas of the world, it articulates the role water plays not only in diplomacy, violence, and conflict, but also how water can be used as a tool of coercion across the spectrum of conflict. Additionally, the research provides insight into how water stress can empower violent extremist organizations and place stable governments at risk.

would be willing to go to war to ensure supplies. In 2007, CNA’s Military Advisory Board (MAB) identified that, “access to vital resources, primarily food and water, can be an additional causative

Making-Captains-of-War-CNOS-Studies-Group-1981-1995

/analyses/2016/making-captains-of-war-cnos-studies-group-1981-1995

The Strategic Studies Group, created by the Chief of Naval Operations in 1981 to prepare Navy officers to think strategically, succeeded, this review finds.

/reports/2016/Making-Captains-of-War-CNOS-Studies-Group-1981-1995.pdf /reports/2016/Making-Captains-of-War-CNOS-Studies-Group-1981-1995.webp /images/GenericReportImage.jpg SPPP /centers-and-divisions/cna/rsp Statement A (Public release/Unlimited) Specific

Examining Recent PLA Writings

/analyses/2016/examining-recent-pla-writings

This study examines how people in China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) think about and discuss escalation control in their public writings. It draws on over two dozen PLA writings, most issued since 2008, to explore the current state of PLA thinking on how crisis and conflict erupt, escalate, and end. We focused on PLA views of conventional (non-nuclear) conflict. We found that controlling the outbreak and escalation of crisis is an area of focus for the PLA. We also found that there are divergences from U.S. thinking that are worthy of attention. Chief among these is that some Chinese military activities in a crisis could be perceived as—and therefore become—escalatory even if they are not intended as such. Finally, we found that PLA views on these issues are evolving, and that there are still many critical unknowns in our understanding of PLA views on escalation control.

/reports/2016/drm-2015-u-009963-final3_Page_001.jpg /reports/2016/China%20flowchart.jpg China Studies /centers-and-divisions/cna/rsp/china-studies Unlimited distribution. 112 DRM-2015-U-009963-Final3

Potential Consequences of E-Cigarette Use

/analyses/2016/potential-consequences-of-e-cigarette-use

The use of e-cigarettes (vaping) among adolescents, Using data from the National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) this study examine e-cigratte (vaping) trends over time among adolescents and how it may impact DOD's recruitable population.

/centers-and-divisions/cna/rfr/marine-corps-and-defense-workforce-program Cleared for Public Release Distribution unlimited 62 DRM-2016-U-014138.pdf

Asking the Right Questions A Framework for Assessing Counterterrorism Actions

/analyses/2016/asking-the-right-questions-a-framework-for-assessing-counterterrorism-actions

Since the attacks on September 11, 2001, the United States has dedicated an extraordinary amount of time, money, and effort to countering terrorism, using a variety of approaches and tools. However, it has devoted comparatively little effort to developing rigorous and useful assessment frameworks to help policymakers and practitioners understand how effective these counterterrorism (CT) actions have been. To address this shortfall, in this paper we first identify and characterize today’s prevailing theories of terrorism and their associated CT actions. For each theory, we then create an assessment framework—consisting of specific questions that need to be answered in order to gauge the success or failure of CT actions, and indicators that could be used to answer those questions. These assessment frameworks—which rigorously link policy to practice—should enable CT practitioners to provide policymakers and commanders direct and actionable feedback on whether the approaches they have chosen to countering terrorist groups are having the impacts they expect and desire.

.pdf /reports/2016/drm-2015-u-012261-final_Page_01.jpg /reports/2016/terrorist%20chart.jpg Asking the Right Questions A Framework for Assessing Counterterrorism Actions /centers-and-divisions/cna/rsp

Determining the Statistical Power of the Kolmogorov Smirnov

/analyses/2016/determining-the-statistical-power-of-the-kolmogorov-smirnov

Metrics are often used to compare the performance of newly developed systems with the performance of their predecessors. Metrics can also be used to compare the output of a simulator with real-world data to test the accuracy of the simulation. Statistical comparison of these metrics can be necessary when making such a determination. There are different methods of statistical comparison that are sensitive to the various types of underlying distribution of the metric data. Distribution type can affect the performance of these tests, and, fortunately, the distributions of many common metrics are well known. For example, mean time to repair (MTTR) and mean flight hours between critical failures (MFHBCF), generally follow a log-normal and an exponential distribution, respectively. This paper presents the effects of distribution type and parameters on the statistical power of two common goodness-of-fit tests (Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Anderson-Darling) via Monte Carlo simulation.

/reports/2016/DOP-2016-U-014638-Final.pdf /reports/2016/DOP-2016-U-014638-Final_Page_01.jpg /images/GenericReportImage.jpg Strike and Air Warfare /centers-and-divisions/cna/ata DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release