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china ai and autonomy report: Issue 15, May 19, 2022

/our-media/newsletters/china-ai-and-autonomy-report/issue-15

The China AI and Autonomy Report, issue 15, is a biweekly newsletter published by CNA, on artificial intelligence and autonomy in China.

, leveraged “fully onboard” perception, planning, and control, using AI to process sensor inputs and produce optimized trajectory outputs within a few milliseconds when operating in “extremely” constrained ... Robot Research Center, Gao Fei, has “undertaken a number of important scientific research projects” for the PRC Central Military Commission Science and Technology Committee. [3] Images from ... air defenses. Source: CCTV-7: Military Enthusiast Around the World (军迷行天下), Oct. 6, 2021, https://tv.cctv.com/2021/10/06/VIDEDvh7bTvrZLxpQzLotoTI211006.shtml?spm

china ai and autonomy report: Issue 7, January 27, 2022

/our-media/newsletters/china-ai-and-autonomy-report/issue-7

The China AI and Autonomy Report, issue 7, is a biweekly newsletter published by CNA, on artificial intelligence and autonomy in China.

exploration of future warfare in China Military Online, the official news outlet of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The Chinese Academy of Sciences’s (CAS’s) unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) have ... and private education companies, and “is among several Xi-isms feeding concerns that China is tilting away from free markets and back toward more ideologically driven centralized planning.” The communique ... prevalent in military operations, humans will retain their essential role in warfare, and that “four basic relationships need to be dealt with” to fully understand the nature of future warfare. According

CNA HONORS JERRY MEYERLE FOR EXCEPTIONAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO US NATIONAL SECURITY

/our-media/press-releases/2023/08-2023

Dr. Jerry Meyerle receives the Phil E. DePoy Award for Analytical Excellence

operations, troop allocation and mission direction in Afghanistan, and long-term planning at the Pentagon.  “Jerry embodies everything we look for in a CNA analyst,” said CNA CEO and President Dr ... superb work.”  “Military leaders make hard decisions, in difficult circumstances—with limited time, limited information, and lives on the line,” said Dr. Meyerle. “In these moments, analysis is like ... science and international relations from the University of Virginia.  Meyerle has served in the CNA Field Program as an advisor to military commanders in Afghanistan, on a carrier strike group

Subnational-Deterrence-An-Information-Campaign-to-Reduce-Risks-of-a-Nuclear-NK

/reports/2022/12/subnational-deterrence-an-information-campaign-to-reduce-risks-of-a-nuclear-nk

A campaign of information and influence by the US and South Korea could deter key North Korean personnel, reducing risks of conflict or use of nuclear weapons.

, Naval Forces Korea for a quick-response effort to inform planning components for the Korean theater of operations (KTO) on challenging changes in the threat environment and to explore non-kinetic ... . As the threat from North Korea evolves, the challenges increase in magnitude, creating significant risk of a military conflict and of escalation within such a conflict. If deterrence fails to prevent ... , destruction, and duration of combat; mitigating the factors most likely to bring about significant humanitarian challenges; and lessening the resistance of military and civilian personnel in North Korea

Reimagining Defense Strategy

/reports/2021/10/reimagining-defense-strategy

This event continued a conversation begun at CNA’s September 16, 2021, National Security Seminar, titled “Planning for Tomorrow’s Threats: Overcoming Obstacles to Organize, Adapt, and Innovate.” In this event, we heard insights on defense strategy from Christian Brose, Chief Strategy Officer of Anduril Industries, a defense technology company. Mr. Brose shared his perspective as a former staff director of the Senate Armed Services Committee under Chairman John McCain. He is also the author of The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare. Dr. Carter Malkasian, from CNA, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The event was recorded and is available online.

Reimagining Defense Strategy Reimagining Defense Strategy This event continued a conversation begun at CNA’s September 16, 2021, National Security Seminar, titled “Planning for Tomorrow’s Threats ... September 16, 2021, National Security Seminar, titled “Planning for Tomorrow’s Threats: Overcoming Obstacles to Organize, Adapt, and Innovate.” In this event, we heard insights on defense strategy from ... . Brose started off with a discussion about the title of The Kill Chain and its central arguments. In Brose’s view, the logic of a kill chain demonstrates the actual purpose of military power

Thrift Savings Plan Distribution

/reports/2019/10/thrift-savings-plan-distribution

The Blended Retirement System aims to increase Servicemembers’ retirement savings by matching contributions to Thrift Savings Plans by up to five percent of basic pay. This new system applies to Servicemembers who entered uniformed service on January 1, 2018, or later, or to Servicemembers with early entry dates and fewer than 12 years of service who opted in to the new system during 2018. This report analyzes Thrift Savings Plan contributions by Active component Servicemembers, across Services, eligibility categories, and Servicemember characteristics. We find that age, regular military compensation, paygrade, race, and gender are all correlated to varying degrees with retirement savings rates. In particular, older and higher income Servicemembers save at higher rates. We also find substantial differences across Services in the savings patterns of auto-enrollees, suggesting differences in training or messaging. Furthermore, some Servicemembers may be saving inefficiently by reaching the annual limit on TSP contributions prior to December and thereby forgoing matching funds.

Services, eligibility categories, and Servicemember characteristics. We find that age, regular military compensation, paygrade, race, and gender are all correlated to varying degrees with retirement ... benefit if they left the military prior to 20 YOS. The BRS instead provides benefits that Servicemembers may access even if they do not reach 20 YOS, while encouraging them to actively participate in their retirement planning. The BRS reduces the payment associated with the cliff-vesting program, but it compensates for the reduction by incentivizing participation in the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP

Redefining Human Control

/reports/2018/03/redefining-human-control

This report examines the issue of human control with regard to lethal autonomy, an issue of significant interest in United Nations discussions in the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) forum. We analyze this issue in light of lessons and best practices from recent U.S. operations. Based on this analysis, we make the case for a wider framework for the application of human control over the use of force. This report recommends that CCW discussions currently focusing on process considerations, such as human control, should instead focus on outcome—namely, mitigation of inadvertent engagements. This allows consideration of a more complete set of benefits and risks of lethal autonomy and better management of risks. The report also describes best practices that can collectively serve as a safety net for the use of lethal autonomous weapons. It concludes with concrete recommendations for how the international community can more effectively address the risk of inadvertent engagements from lethal autonomy.

their own decisions. Nongovernmental organizations are particularly worried about civilian casualties, while military leaders harbor additional concerns about friendly fire. In four years ... rests in human control, particularly over the final engagement decision—the trigger pull. Drawing upon CNA’s long history of analyzing military operations, we employ empirical analysis of recent ... fallibility One clear lesson from recent military experience is that human judgment during the trigger-pull decision is not perfect. Misidentifications were the reason for about half of all U.S.-caused

An Analysis of Female Representation and Marines Performance in Aviation and Logistics Occupations

/reports/2016/an-analysis-of-female-representation-and-marines-performance-in-aviation-and-logistics-occupations

CNA analyst examined trends in female representation and performance in aviation and logistics occfields and provided insights into what may occur when the Marine Corps opens PMOSs that have been closed to women.

closed to women. In 2013, the Secretary of Defense rescinded the 1994 Direct Ground Combat Definition and Assignment Rule, opening ground-combat-related military service opportunities to women [1 ... Corps personnel data. Our analysis focuses on Marines who held primary military occupational specialties (PMOSs) in any of the aviation occupational fields (occfields) (60XX through 75XX ... is not able to address these topics, but we recommend that they be part of the Marine Corps’ long-term integration analysis plan. When considering and planning for the opening of occupations to women

Drone Strikes in Pakistan Reasons to Assess Civilian Casualties

/reports/2014/drone-strikes-in-pakistan-reasons-to-assess-civilian-casualties

CNA analyzed publically available data to determine the likelihood of civilian harm per strike in the drone campaign in Pakistan. From this data, we see that the U.S. has improved its ability to reduce civilian casualties during drone strikes in Pakistan over the past several years, as measured in the percentage of strikes causing civilian casualties and the number of civilian casualties occurring per incident.

occur. The characteristics of a weapon platform-in this case drones-are nottheonly factor in reducing civilian casualties; other factors like planning and training must be taken into consideration ... strikes by military forces in Afghanistan. Although there are key differences in the two campaigns, this observation warrants further examination (also reserved for a subsequent paper). Overall ... amends­ when they occur from such strikes. This practice could adapt success­ ful U.S. measures taken in Afghanistan, and would be consistent with recent legislation governing military operations

JTF Operations Since 1983

/reports/1994/jtf-operations-since-1983

This research memorandum summarizes recent Joint Task Force (JTF) operations. We reviewed the operations at the request of CINCI.ANTFLT to help the fleet determine its requirements for training Navy officers and staffs in JTF operations. The goal is to extract lessons learned that define high-leverage training topics.

or liaison officers to a wide variety of organizations, such as country teams, foreign military components, and non-governmental organizations (such as the Red Cross). Based on the last ten years ... issues, and legal issues. Joint Crisis Action Planning procedures capable of being exe­ cuted on extremely short notice (time scale of a few days). Doctrine for assuming responsibility of ongoing operations from another command structure or turning over operations to other military and non-military organizations. George Stewart Scott M. Fabbri /reports/1994/2794004200.pdf