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Diagnosing the Boko Haram Conflict

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The intent of this report is to provide the appropriate type of information—at the appropriate level of granularity—in order to inform U.S. government efforts to develop more effective approaches to countering Boko Haram. The goal is to help U.S. planners and decision-makers understand the conflict as an interconnected system and, eventually, to develop targeted, conflict-sensitive strategies for assisting the Nigerian government. Specifically, this report seeks to diagnose and dissect the conflict by identifying relevant political, economic, social, and security factors at work in northeast Nigeria, by analyzing how key actors mobilize grievances and institutional resiliencies to drive or mitigate conflict, and by forecasting how conflict dynamics might evolve in the future.

Rethinking the US Approach to Boko Haram

/analyses/2015/rethinking-the-us-approach-to-boko-haram

U.S. Naval Forces Africa asked CNA to recommend an approach for the United States government (USG) to counter Boko Haram. The USG has been working with the government of Nigeria (GoN) to defeat the group, but the two governments are taking divergent approaches and efforts to date have not been effective. The GoN is taking a narrow counterterrorism approach that relies heavily on the military, whereas a broader whole-of-government approach is required. Due to the political dynamics in Nigeria, the USG has few ways to change the GoN’s approach to the conflict. We propose that the USG and other supporting partners focus on assisting Chad, Niger, and Cameroon to become increasingly able to prevent Boko Haram from taking root within their borders. While this would not dismantle Boko Haram in the near term, it could buy time for conditions in Nigeria to become more favorable to direct U.S. assistance.

Charting the Course for Civil Affairs in the New Normal

/analyses/2015/charting-the-course-for-civil-affairs-in-the-new-normal

CNA has recently examined the state of the CA community in both the Navy and the Marine Corps. As we will see, the community has a very different trajectory in each of these services.

CNA Small Group Discussion Aiding Cameroons Effort to Counter Boko Haram

/analyses/2015/cna-small-group-discussion-aiding-cameroons-effort-to-counter-boko-haram

Since 2009, Boko Haram has waged a campaign of violence and intimidation in Nigeria, mostly in the country’s northeast. Thousands of civilians have been killed, and the pace of violence seems to have increased in recent months. The government of Nigeria has seen the conflict as a terrorism issue, and has relied on a narrow, largely military response. Despite its efforts to quell the rising tide of violence, it has thus far been erratic and less than effective in combating Boko Haram. CNA’s analysis (with which the small group participants agreed) is that the Boko Haram conflict is an insurgency requiring a broad-based, whole-of-government response that addresses the conflict’s underlying economic, political, and social root causes. Because Nigeria seems reluctant to take that approach and because Boko Haram has been launching attacks and raids into neighboring countries, two recently completed CNA studies, Rethinking the U.S. Approach to Boko Haram: The Case for a Regional Strategy and Diagnosing the Boko Haram Conflict: Grievances, Motivations, and Institutional Resilience in Northeast Nigeria, recommended that the United States focus on supporting a regional approach to the conflict that would include Nigeria’s neighbors.

National Security and Assured US Electrical Power

/analyses/2015/national-security-and-assured-us-electrical-power

This document presents the wide-ranging views of an advisory group of retired flag and general officers from the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps on the subject of national security and assured U.S. electrical power. Since 2006, this advisory group, referred to as CNA's Military Advisory Board (MAB), has examined the linkages between climate, energy, and national security, and has brought its vast operational, tactical, and strategic experience and perspective to domestic and international discussions. Past MAB reports include National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, Powering America’s Defense: Energy and the Risks to National Security, Ensuring America’s Freedom of Movement: A National Security Imperative to Reduce U.S. Oil Dependence, and the CNA MAB’s most recent work, National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change.

Mobilizing Compatriots Russias Strategy

/analyses/2015/mobilizing-compatriots-russias-strategy

As part of its wider efforts to assess the implications of Russia’s foreign and national security policy, CNA initiated this study to examine Russia’s objectives, policy, and strategic and operational calculus with respect to ethnic Russian, Russian-speaking, and other potentially sympathetic populations residing in other former Soviet states. This is a quick-response, three-month effort designed to stimulate public discourse around Russia’s efforts to use these communities, which Moscow defines as compatriots, to further its policy goals. The study highlights several important implications that U.S. policy-makers may consider in formulating policy toward Russia and the countries in which these compatriot populations reside. After releasing this report, the study team plans to organize an event to discuss these topics at CNA headquarters in fall 2015.

Russian Ambiguous Warfare and US Implications

/analyses/2015/russian-ambiguous-warfare-and-us-implications

“Ambiguous warfare” is a term that has no proper definition and has been used within U.S. government circles since at least the 1980s. Generally speaking, the term applies in situations in which a state or non-state belligerent actor deploys troops and proxies in a deceptive and confusing manner—with the intent of achieving political and military effects while obscuring the belligerent’s direct participation. Russia’s actions in Crimea and Ukraine clearly align with this concept, though numerous participants pointed out that it is not a new concept for Russia.

Food Chain Reaction Global Food Security Game

/analyses/2015/food-chain-reaction-global-food-security-game

CNA explores global food system disruptions via a policy game developed with the World Wildlife Fund, Cargill, Mars, and the Center for American Progress.

Potential Environmental Impact from Fracking in the Delaware River Basin

/analyses/2015/potential-environmental-impact-from-fracking-in-the-delaware-river-basin

This study aims to model the landscape of the Marcellus Shale region to predict how it may change in the future in response to the expansion of natural gas extraction, and, in particular, what impact this may have on the Delaware River Basin (DRB). Our approach combined geospatial analysis and statistical modeling to create a probability surface that predicts the most favorable locations for the placement of future wells based on the location of existing wells. Using the probability surface and an estimate of the number of wells that would be needed to fully exploit the shale resource, we estimated the future landscape of development in the Interior Marcellus Shale and DRB. Using affected subwatersheds and counties as study areas, we then investigated potential impacts associated with land cover, water and wastewater management, water quality due to changes in land cover, air emissions, and health risk factors. The results are intended to help decision-makers and the public

How Russia's War on Ukraine Changed Russian Military Medicine

/quick-looks/2026/how-russia-war-on-ukraine-changed-russian-military-medicine

This document provides insight on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on Russian military medicine, how it changed the landscape and key takeaways