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National Security Seminar March 2023

/analyses/2023/06/national-security-seminar-march-2023

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its decision to suspend participation in New START impacts medium to long-term arms control yet arms control is still a valuable tool to advance the US national interests.

. Timothy McDonnell’s recent publication Working with the Adversary: Great Power Cooperation and Nuclear Risk Management . In addition to McDonnell, the event featured Rose Gottemoeller, former deputy secretary general of NATO and chief US negotiator of the 2010 New START Treaty, and was moderated by Mary Chesnut, a research analyst and nuclear weapons policy expert at CNA. McDonnell began ... National Security Seminar March 2023 Nuclear Cooperation with Strategic Competitors Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its decision to suspend participation in New START impacts medium to long-term

china ai and autonomy report: Issue 6, January 13, 2022

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The China AI and Autonomy Report, issue 6, is a biweekly newsletter published by CNA, on artificial intelligence and autonomy in China.

stability goes beyond nuclear. Our idea is to expand the subject of the P5 process so we could discuss not only the nuclear issues, but also other issues related to strategic stability, including outer space, missile defense, even AI and other emerging technologies.” Fu delivered the remarks during a briefing to reporters following a joint statement signed by the P5 pledging to avoid a nuclear war ... , the flight of the UAV(s) is controlled by the rear area control system, but the sensors and weapons systems can be operated by the manned aircraft. In the third method of coordination, the manned aircraft

russian media analysis: Issue 8, January 28, 2022

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Russian Perspectives on Western Military Activities

and Avoiding Arms Races, and the importance to Russia of the “inadmissibility of any war between nuclear states, whether nuclear or with the use of conventional weapons.” Aleksey Poplavskiy in   Gazeta.ru   offers Russian expert commentary on potential Western reactions to the unlikely placement of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus. ( The December 6–16, 2021, issue of   Russian Media Analysis ... requested that NATO hold military exercises in the region in response to the joint Russian-Belarusian exercises. 7. Nuclear risk reduction and potential Western reactions to Belarusian nukes

Prevailing Under the Nuclear Shadow

/analyses/2020/09/prevailing-under-the-nuclear-shadow

The United States has characterized today’s geopolitical environment as a “long-term, strategic competition between nations.” This competition includes renewed emphasis on the role of nuclear weapons in international affairs by the nucleararmed competitors of the US—Russia, China, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). These adversaries view competition with the US as having a nuclear dimension that is not confined to high-end warfare. Accordingly, the US must anticipate that nuclear weapons will play a central role in a regional conflict with any of these opponents. This reality underscores the importance of preparing policy-makers to manage escalation during a conflict taking place under the nuclear shadow. The use of nuclear weapons in a war between the US and its allies and Russia, China, or the DPRK would be not only militarily significant, but would also have major political and normative consequences. Yet practical concepts for escalation management are lacking in the post-Cold War, contemporary great power context. To fill that gap, this report proposes foundational elements for a nuclear escalation management framework. This novel framework leverages key concepts from escalation theory and risk management literature to create a structured, analytical process for US policy-makers and planners to evaluate potential courses of action (COAs) that could be employed to achieve favorable escalation management with nucleararmed competitors.

as a “long-term, strategic competition between nations.” This competition includes renewed emphasis on the role of nuclear weapons in international affairs by the nucleararmed competitors of the US—Russia, China ... anticipate that nuclear weapons will play a central role in a regional conflict with any of these opponents. This reality underscores the importance of preparing policy-makers to manage escalation during a conflict taking place under the nuclear shadow. The use of nuclear weapons in a war between the US and its allies and Russia, China, or the DPRK would be not only militarily significant

russian media analysis: Issue 10, February 25, 2022

/our-media/newsletters/russian-media-analysis/issue-10

Russian Perspectives on Western Military Activities

for a conflict with Western military support. Ukraine will seek to create nuclear weapons, or potentially get Western assistance to do so. Ukraine joining NATO is just a matter of time. Ukraine ... the Ukrainians and encourage them to fulfill the previously-made [Minsk] agreements and obligations, this can be welcomed.” 10. SIVKOV CAUTIONS US ABOUT NUCLEAR WAR In   VPK,   Russian commentator Konstantin Sivkov extrapolates from what he alleges to have been a statement made by Gen. David Goldfein about “three steps to destroy Russia.” He concludes that a nuclear conflict between the US

Russian Strategy for Escalation Management: Key Concepts

/analyses/2020/04/russian-strategy-for-escalation-management-key-concepts

This report examines evolving debates within the Russian military on questions of “escalation management,” or intra-war deterrence.

faced with a limited toolkit and largely dependent on nuclear weapons. Over time they came to consider deterrence levels, damage types, and the specific political and military measures that could ... weapons), and conducting single or grouped strikes (with conventional or nuclear weapons). Such measures could be employed in a threatened period to prevent aggression, and in wartime to manage escalation ... periods of reform and military modernization, the toolkit or means that Russian military strategists envisioned also came to evolve, as did their thinking on the mix of nuclear and nonnuclear means

The Shooting Party: Russia Evolving Threat Perceptions Since 2022

/analyses/2025/09/the-shooting-party-russia-evolving-threat-perceptions-since-2022

Although Russian operations in Ukraine reveal a degree of adaptability, the war has not reshaped Russia’s broader framework of threat perceptions.

. To address these challenges, Russian military thinkers advocate for developing space systems that ensure the effective use of nuclear weapons and troop formations, establishing rapid-response orbital launch ... thinking, in which the US conducts massed decapitation strikes against national command-and-control systems and the strategic nuclear force, executed through both group and individual tactical-level ... as a broader Western strategy aimed at weakening Russia. They view the supply of long-range strike weapons as a signal that the West is increasingly willing to risk direct confrontation with Russia. Even

Russian Military Role in US-Russian Arms Control

/analyses/2024/03/russian-military-role-in-us-russian-arms-control

Russian nuclear policy and arms control decision-making is influenced by the General Staff’s Main Operational Directorate, military leaders, and bureaucrats.

to engage with their Russian counterparts on nuclear weapons and arms control issues in the future. An attempt to look inside the black box of Moscow's decision-making, the study adds dimensions ... and to limit arms racing. The writings also point to the potential challenges of negotiating numerical limits on all Russian nuclear weapons; evolving discordant perspectives on missile defense; an interest ... Russian Military Role in US-Russian Arms Control The General Staff’s Throw-Weight: The Russian Military’s Role in and Views of US-Russian Arms Control Russian nuclear policy and arms control

cna talks: Nuclear Policy After the War in Ukraine

/our-media/podcasts/cna-talks/2022/06/nuclear-policy-after-the-war-in-ukraine

Since the end of the Cold War, the threat of nuclear weapons has largely faded from popular consciousness. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats have brought the issue back into focus. In this episode of CNA Talks, we are discussing nuclear policy and strategy, and how things have shifted since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Nuclear Policy After the War in Ukraine Since the end of the Cold War, the threat of nuclear weapons has largely faded from popular consciousness. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats have brought the issue back into focus. In this episode of CNA Talks, we are discussing nuclear policy and strategy, and how things have shifted since Russia’s ... weapons policy, and nuclear strategy. Mary Chesnut   is an Associate Research Analyst in CNA’s   Russia Studies Program , where she studies Russian nuclear weapons and nuclear strategy. Further

ai and autonomy in russia: Issue 43, August 8, 2022

/our-media/newsletters/ai-and-autonomy-in-russia/issue-43

nuclear drone that Belgorod is best known for is the subject of much speculation, given Russian government statements that it can travel at high speeds at depths of over 1 km. According to many discussions in the Russian and Western analytical community, Poseidon could be hard to detect, and is apparently designed to deliver a sea-based nuclear strike on shore or naval base targets by causing a radioactive tsunami. We reported on the Poseidon in our “AI and Autonomy in Russia” 2021 report as one of the potentially AI-enabled and autonomous weapons in the Russian arsenal, although there is little