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Powering Americas Defense: /analyses/2009/powering-americas-defense; To better inform U.S. policymakers and the pub- lic about the impact of America’s energy choices on national security policies, CNA, a nonproﬁt research organization that runs the Center for Naval Analyses and the Institute for Public Re- search, convened a panel of retired senior mili- tary ofﬁcers and national security experts. The Military Advisory Board consists of retired generals and admirals from all four services, many of whom served on the Military Advisory Board that produced the 2007 report, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change. That report found that “climate change, national se- curity, and energy dependence are a related set of global challenges.” This new volume builds on that ﬁnding by con- sidering the security risks inherent in America’s current energy posture, energy choices the nation can make to enhance our national security, the impact of climate change on our energy choices and our national security, and the role DoD can play in the nation’s approach to energy security. These issues were viewed through the lens of the extensive military experience of the Military Ad- visory Board. The issues were considered solely for their impact on America’s national security.
Developing an Expeditionary Warfare Officer Career Path: /analyses/2009/developing-an-expeditionary-warfare-officer-career-path; In mid-2008, CNA undertook a quick-look analysis on how to manage expeditionary warfare officer careers. Based on the findings of that study, United States Fleet Forces (USFF) requested that CNA provide a more in-depth analysis of expeditionary warfare officer management. To do this, we analyze the billet structure of NECC and determine if a career path can be created that will allow for the development of the necessary experience. Following the results of the quick-look analysis, we focus on managing officers using an Additional Qualification Designator (AQD ). We also look at the role of Reserves in meeting experience re quirements, and the role of Specialty Career Paths (SCPs) in managing officer careers.
Deterrence and Influence Navys Role: /analyses/2009/deterrence-and-influence-navys-role; Deterrence is one of the primary mechanisms of war prevention, and the rise of a new breed of security challenges since the end of the Cold War requires updated deterrence strategies that combine both kinetic and non-kinetic capabilities, and are designed to influence actors at the earliest phases of the conflict spectrum. Our objective is to analyze how U.S. non-nuclear capabilities can be used to deter conventional aggression, and to examine the role of maritime power in preventing conventional conflicts.
China in Anti Piracy in Horn of Africa: /analyses/2009/china-in-anti-piracy-in-horn-of-africa; In December 2008, the navy of the People’s Republic of China (People’s Liberation Army Navy, or PLAN) deployed a task force, made up of two guided missile destroyers and a supply ship, to participate in international anti- piracy operations off the coast of Somalia, in the Gulf of Aden/Horn of Africa (HoA) region. This deployment marked the first time in modern history that China's navy has engaged in an operational mission outside of its claimed territorial waters. The PLAN’s participation in international anti-piracy operations has been viewed by many in the United States and elsewhere as an indication of China’s apparent willingness to take on a larger military role on the global stage. On March 20, 2009, CNA China Studies hosted a half-day conference to discuss China’s anti-piracy activities. Bringing together U.S. officials, analysts, and active-duty military personnel, the conference examined the reasons that piracy has become a problem in the Gulf of Aden/HoA region; the drivers for China’s unprecedented naval participation in international anti-piracy efforts; the implications that this participation has for China’s navy; and the potential implications that it has for the United States. This report first outlines four major themes discussed throughout the conference. It then turns to a more detailed discussion of each of the conference’s three panels.
Accession Screening for Language Skills: /analyses/2009/accession-screening-for-language-skills; This report describes our analysis of DOD’s language screening capabilities. We discuss how the current system identifies language aptitude and provide statistics on recent performance in language training. We investigate how the services recruit people and how those people progress through testing and assignment to attendance at the Defense Language Institute Foreign Language Center. We identify several criteria that can be used to assess their performance at DLIFLC. In our analysis, we develop models for predicting enlisted performance on the Defense Language Aptitude Battery screening test. Building on previous analytical work, we expand the list of predictors to include several other background characteristics that we found to be significantly related to pe rformance on the DLAB test. We modeled the performance of both officer and enlisted students at DLIFLC. In addition to comparing the relationship of student characteristics with performance at DLIFLC, we investigated other factors, such as teaching resources, that co uld also affect outcomes, including completion rates and scores on language proficiency tests. This analysis demonstrates some of the ways that screening of candidates for DLIFLC could be improved.
Maritime Security Strengthening International Cooperation: /analyses/2009/maritime-security-strengthening-international-cooperation; Headlines around the world today describe the dramatic rising tide of criminal behaviour at sea: piracy off the coast of Africa, illegal immigration across the Mediterranean, and the flood of narcotics into Africa and Europe from across the Atlantic, to name only a few. Some experts estimate that currently 12 percent of all maritime activities take place ‘on the dark side.’ As these activities increase in number and spread to new locations across the globe, we are beginning to witness the detrimental economic and security impact throughout the world. The rise in illicit activity at sea affects not only developed nations that rely on free access to maritime shipping lanes for their economic success and prosperity, but also underdeveloped, vulnerable nations whose weak infrastructure and internal economic and political stability are placed under even greater duress. With these challenges in mind, this conference addressed critical questions on how to improve global maritime security. Speakers tackled issues such as the evolving nature of risks and threats in the maritime environment; the current gaps in the gathering, the sharing and the analysis of information; bilateral, regional, and international legal frameworks for maritime security; and the role leading maritime powers and multinational organisations can play in assisting developing countries to build capacity for securing their coastal areas. This report summarizes the presentations and discussions on these topics and concludes with a set of implications and considerations for maritime stakeholders.
Systems Thinking and Wargaming: /analyses/2009/systems-thinking-and-wargaming; Wargaming, in what may be called its modern form, has been around for well over 200 years. Systems thinking and its more complex variant, systems dynamics, have been prominent techniques in management science since the late 1950s. This paper explores the connections between these two powerful tools. It addresses the questions of how wargaming can support those who develop and use systems models, and how such systems models can, in turn, help those who design, control, and play in wargames. These subjects are especially timely because today’s theater commanders and their staffs are challenged to conduct—and assess the effectiveness of—“influence operations.” The nature of these sorts of operations is always changing, and measures of their effectiveness are at best controversial and at worst, non-existent. Wargaming and systems thinking can help.
Thinking About Military Retirement: /analyses/2008/thinking-about-military-retirement; As part of the report of the 10th QRMC, the purpose of this paper is to provide readers with a discussion of the issues relating to the military retirement system. To set the stage for the discussion that follows, the first section outlines what a personnel system should do. Here, the purposes of compensation and personnel policy are reviewed and certain institutional constraints that influence the structure of the military compensation system are identified. Following that, the second section highlights the structure of the current compensation system and the outcomes that result from this structure.
Navy Shore Infrastructure Investment Support: /analyses/2008/navy-shore-infrastructure-investment-support; This paper describes the development process that CNA used to create a new methodology for the Navy to assess shore infrastructure readiness for support tasking, and it documents the design concepts for a shore facilities investment model. This model was developed as a programming tool for OPNAV N46 staff to adjust investment project profiles and funding levels to achieve desired performance output levels at the end of the current FYDP. The methodology involved creating measures of merit to quantify the current and future performance levels and a functional segmentation of the infrastructure to provide a greater understanding of shore support capabilities and shortfalls. The new technique required a method for indexing the measures of merit together in a consistent manner to provide the Navy with an ongoing readiness assessment number. It also required the creation of a baseline year infrastructure inventory assessment to use as the starting point for analyzing future year impact of current shore investment funding profiles. We developed a process to quantify the projected impact of proposed military construction and special projects upon the measures of merit.
Wargaming and Analysis Presentation for MORS Special Meeting: /analyses/2007/wargaming-and-analysis-presentation-for-mors-special-meeting; CNA's presentation at the MORS special meeting provided an overview of wargaming and analysis.

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