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The First War on Terror

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This paper examines the forgotten history of counterterrorism in the United States during the 1970s and early 1980s. That period was part of a long wave of terrorism that occurred across the developed world. Within the United States during that period, terrorist groups—including ethno-nationalists, separatists, and Marxist- Leninists—conducted a remarkable number of attacks, some of which resulted in significant injuries and deaths. Many of the policies, strategies, and structures designed to combat domestic terrorism during the 1970-1985 period remain part of the U.S. counterterrorism repertoire. By providing historical perspective, this paper will help today’s policymakers understand issues of change and continuity in the terrorist threat; weigh alternative approaches to countering terrorist challenges; and evaluate tradeoffs between public safety and civil liberties.

Risky Business

/analyses/2014/risky-business

Since 9/11, the United States has invested billions of dollars in training and equipping foreign security forces to fight terrorist and insurgent groups abroad. Despite considerable effort and expense (including thousands of U.S. lives lost), raising military and police forces in places such as Afghanistan, Iraq, and Mali has yielded decidedly lackluster results. As a result, there is growing recognition that the application of traditional security sector reform efforts to combat asymmetric threats such as terrorist groups in fragile or failed states is proving to be slow, cumbersome, and in some instances counterproductive. Moreover, in an era of shrinking defense budgets, a purely top-down, state-centric approach has become too costly and politically contentious to sustain on a large scale.

National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change

/analyses/2014/national-security-and-the-accelerating-risks-of-climate-change

It is through this analytical prism that 11 retired Generals and Admirals came together in 2007, under the moniker of CNA’s Military Advisory Board, to examine the security implications of climate change. Their landmark report, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, was the first time that such an elite body of military leaders expressed their concern over the security implications of climate change. Now, seven years later, the Military Advisory Board has gathered again to re-examine the nexus of projected climate change and national security. This update reflects their decades of experience as risk managers and geopolitical security experts. With the foundation of CNA’s established analytical prowess, the report deserves strong attention from not only the security community, but also from the entire government and the American public. The update serves as a bipartisan call to action. It makes a compelling case that climate change is no longer a future threat—it is taking place now. It observes that climate change serves as a catalyst of conflict in vulnerable parts of the world, and that projected changes in global migration patterns will make the challenges even more severe. It identifies threats to elements of National Power here at home, particularly those associated with our infrastructure and our ability to maintain military readiness. The update makes clear that actions to build resilience against the projected impacts of climate change are required today. We no longer have the option to wait and see. We applaud this group of American patriots for this important update. We commend its reading in full and its recommendations to the Administration, to Congress, and to the American people.

China versus Vietnam

/analyses/2014/china-versus-vietnam

This legal analysis was commissioned as part of a project entitled, “U.S. policy options in the South China Sea.” The objective in asking experienced U.S international lawyers, such as Captain Raul “Pete” Pedrozo, USN, Judge Advocate Corps (ret.), the author of this analysis, is to provide U.S. policy makers access to work that tests the various legal arguments that the respective claimants make in support of their claims, and weigh them against the relatively limited body of international case law associated with maritime disputes of this sort. Importantly, this analysis of Vietnamese claims versus Chinese claims to the Paracel and Spratly archipelagoes was not undertaken as a prelude to a recommendation that the United States depart from its long held position of not taking a position on competing sovereignty claims in the South China Sea. That is not the intent, nor is it one of the recommendations of the project.

Reviving the Caliphate

/analyses/2014/reviving-the-caliphate

In 2007, CNA hosted a conference on the topic of the caliphate. At that time, there were calls for the reestablishment of the caliphate coming from certain Islamist circles, including groups such as Hizb ut-Tahrir and al-Qaeda. In the wake of multiple crises throughout the Muslim world, these calls appeared to be gaining in relevance and support. The goal of the conference was to better understand who supported the restoration of the caliphate, why, and ultimately what such an outcome might mean for U.S. policy and interests in the Muslim world. To answer these questions, we convened over 25 experts on Islam from around the world to discuss the caliphate, focusing on what the institution means to Muslims today, its historical significance, and what applicability, if any, it has in the modern era.

Enlisted Career Paths for Top Snipes

/analyses/2014/enlisted-career-paths-for-top-snipes

The Navy consistently strives to achieve the goal of providing highly trained and qualified sailors to the fleet to fulfill missions. Often these sailors are expected to possess critical technical skills in numerous positions and expertise to mentor junior sailors. Commander, Naval Surface Forces (COMNAVSURFOR), recently noted proficiency problems with sailors in senior positions at sea. This observation led to a message that set development and career management of sailors as a top priority. The proposed solution is to create a career path that gives sailors meaningful experience at sea, reinforced by knowledge-enriching shore tours—a clear statement that simply earning an NEC through a training course is not adequate to be proficient at these key senior positions at sea. A new standard relies on giving sailors experience throughout their careers to prepare them for these key senior positions at sea. The Navy remains confident in the capabilities of the sailors selected for these key senior positions at sea. At the heart of the proficiency issue is lack of opportunities through consistent experience, not competency of sailors.

The Quality Volume Relationship: Comparing Civilian and MHS Practice

/analyses/2014/the-quality-volume-relationship-comparing-civilian-and-mhs-practice

The literature shows that the best outcomes occur when patients get their health care in high-volume settings. High-volume surgeons are more proficient. High volume hospitals are safer. These findings have changed how civilian health care is delivered. Civilian hospitals, insurance companies, governments, and institutions all focus on volume as an indicator of quality. The Military Health System (MHS) lags by comparison. Fewer MHS patients have their procedures in high-volume settings. MHS also misses opportunities to consolidate low-volume hospitals into higher-volume regional facilities. For many product lines, most operations are done by surgeons who perform the procedure infrequently. There are nearly 10 million TRICARE beneficiaries, and thus ample opportunities for MHS to set up high-volume "center of excellence" programs to meet existing beneficiary demand for services. Such initiatives could improve average patient outcomes while supporting clinical currency for MHS physicians.

CNAs Integrated Ship Database

/analyses/2014/cnas-integrated-ship-database

This document describes CNA’s Intergrated Ship Database, which was previously available on the CNA website.

Malaysia and Brunei Claims in SCS

/analyses/2014/malaysia-and-brunei-claims-in-scs

This is the second of three legal analyses commissioned as part of a project entitled, “U.S. Policy Options in the South China Sea.” The objective in asking experienced U.S international lawyers, such as Captain J. Ashley Roach, Judge Advocate General’s Corps, USN (ret.), the author of this analysis, is to provide U.S. policy makers access to work that tests the legal arguments that Vietnam, China, Malaysia and Brunei and the Philippines make in support of their claims, weigh them against the body of international case law associated with maritime disputes of this sort, and if possible, reach a judgment on which country’s claim is superior.

South China Sea US Policy Options

/analyses/2014/south-china-sea-us-policy-options

The aim of this report is to propose additional policy options that the United States might pursue in the South China Sea. To this end it provides a detailed recounting of existing U.S. policy toward the South China Sea. It concludes by recommending additional policy approaches aimed toward generating a more peaceful, stable, non- confrontational, law abiding environment in the South China Sea. Along the way it will address the U.S. interests that are involved in the South China Sea. It will briefly explain what international laws apply to the South China Sea, and detail the “rules” that Washington’s policy insists all parties follow. It will then provide an overview of the legal merits of the respective claims to the islands and features in the South China Sea. The legal overview is presented not to argue for a change to existing U.S. policy of not taking a position on sovereignty claims, but to provide policy-makers with some understanding of the legal complexity of the claims issue.