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Independent Assessment of the Afghan National Security Forces

/analyses/2014/independent-assessment-of-the-afghan-national-security-forces

This assessment, tasked by the United States Congress, was made by analysts in CNA’s Center for Strategic Studies. Dr. Jonathan Schroden led this work, and many CNA analysts con- tributed to the results. Their names are on the cover. The CNA analysts involved in this assess- ment have considerable experience with Afghanistan’s security situation, many having been assigned in Afghanistan and having worked with United States, NATO, and Afghan security forces, and knowing the local language. The Center for Strategic Studies engages in analysis of security matters of many kinds in all parts of the world. We have significant expertise in the Middle East, Asia, Africa, and Latin America. On-the-ground experience, knowledge of local languages, and use of local primary source data to produce empirically-based analyses are hallmarks of our regional work. This report contains the best opinion of CNA at the time of issue. It does not necessarily represent the opinion of the Sponsor, the Secretary of Defense.

Were the Afghan National Security Forces Successful

/analyses/2014/were-the-afghan-national-security-forces-successful

With all of the recent developments pertaining to a possible bilateral security agreement (BSA) regarding future troop presence and military cooperation between the United States and Afghanistan, another important aspect of the future of Afghanistan has gotten much less attention. The Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) just finished their first year of being fully in the lead for providing security in Afghanistan, with the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in support. With 2013 behind us, it is time to take stock of how the ANSF performed.

The Trans Sahara Counter Terrorism Partnership

/analyses/2014/the-trans-sahara-counter-terrorism-partnership

The Trans Sahara Counter Terrorism Partnership (TSCTP) is a multiyear, interagency program aimed at countering terrorism (CT) and countering violent extremism (CVE) in the Sahel and Maghreb. By U.S. government standards, TSCTP is an exceptional program for its ability to marshal interagency resources in support of a multifaceted approach to regional security that spans the “3Ds” – Diplomacy, Defense, and Development. However, like many other foreign assistance programs, TSCTP is not without planning and implementation challenges, which will be detailed in this study.

No Security Without Us

/analyses/2014/no-security-without-us

This paper is intended to serve as a primer on the salient aspects of tribalism in Sunni areas of Iraq, with an emphasis on al Anbar province. It provides a brief summary of the nature of modern tribalism, tribal structures and organization, and the role of tribal leadership. It also details important tribal customs designed to inhibit the escalation of violence. The research for this paper was conducted by the author while embedded as a CNA analyst with the U.S. Marine Corps in al Anbar province in 2007, and some of what follows first appeared in a chapter in Deborah Isser’s Customary Justice and the Rule of Law in War Torn Societies. We include this material as part of this occasional paper with permission from the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) Press Books.

Are We Winning

/analyses/2014/are-we-winning

In more than a decade of war in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States’ armed forces have encountered myriad challenges in their efforts to execute simultaneous counterinsurgency campaigns. Assessing progress on the ground—what we will refer to here as “operations assessment”—has proven an especially challenging task. For CNA analysts, as well as uniformed operations research and systems analysis (ORSA) personnel, the operations assessment process has grown in importance and consumed increasing analytic resources over the course of Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) and Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF). While there have been new and innovative approaches to operations assessment in recent years, there has also been a great deal of relearning old lessons from previous eras (under different conditions). This relearning is, at least in part, attributable to the lack of a comprehensive history of operations assessment.

The First War on Terror

/analyses/2014/the-first-war-on-terror

This paper examines the forgotten history of counterterrorism in the United States during the 1970s and early 1980s. That period was part of a long wave of terrorism that occurred across the developed world. Within the United States during that period, terrorist groups—including ethno-nationalists, separatists, and Marxist- Leninists—conducted a remarkable number of attacks, some of which resulted in significant injuries and deaths. Many of the policies, strategies, and structures designed to combat domestic terrorism during the 1970-1985 period remain part of the U.S. counterterrorism repertoire. By providing historical perspective, this paper will help today’s policymakers understand issues of change and continuity in the terrorist threat; weigh alternative approaches to countering terrorist challenges; and evaluate tradeoffs between public safety and civil liberties.

Risky Business

/analyses/2014/risky-business

Since 9/11, the United States has invested billions of dollars in training and equipping foreign security forces to fight terrorist and insurgent groups abroad. Despite considerable effort and expense (including thousands of U.S. lives lost), raising military and police forces in places such as Afghanistan, Iraq, and Mali has yielded decidedly lackluster results. As a result, there is growing recognition that the application of traditional security sector reform efforts to combat asymmetric threats such as terrorist groups in fragile or failed states is proving to be slow, cumbersome, and in some instances counterproductive. Moreover, in an era of shrinking defense budgets, a purely top-down, state-centric approach has become too costly and politically contentious to sustain on a large scale.

National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change

/analyses/2014/national-security-and-the-accelerating-risks-of-climate-change

It is through this analytical prism that 11 retired Generals and Admirals came together in 2007, under the moniker of CNA’s Military Advisory Board, to examine the security implications of climate change. Their landmark report, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, was the first time that such an elite body of military leaders expressed their concern over the security implications of climate change. Now, seven years later, the Military Advisory Board has gathered again to re-examine the nexus of projected climate change and national security. This update reflects their decades of experience as risk managers and geopolitical security experts. With the foundation of CNA’s established analytical prowess, the report deserves strong attention from not only the security community, but also from the entire government and the American public. The update serves as a bipartisan call to action. It makes a compelling case that climate change is no longer a future threat—it is taking place now. It observes that climate change serves as a catalyst of conflict in vulnerable parts of the world, and that projected changes in global migration patterns will make the challenges even more severe. It identifies threats to elements of National Power here at home, particularly those associated with our infrastructure and our ability to maintain military readiness. The update makes clear that actions to build resilience against the projected impacts of climate change are required today. We no longer have the option to wait and see. We applaud this group of American patriots for this important update. We commend its reading in full and its recommendations to the Administration, to Congress, and to the American people.

China versus Vietnam

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This legal analysis was commissioned as part of a project entitled, “U.S. policy options in the South China Sea.” The objective in asking experienced U.S international lawyers, such as Captain Raul “Pete” Pedrozo, USN, Judge Advocate Corps (ret.), the author of this analysis, is to provide U.S. policy makers access to work that tests the various legal arguments that the respective claimants make in support of their claims, and weigh them against the relatively limited body of international case law associated with maritime disputes of this sort. Importantly, this analysis of Vietnamese claims versus Chinese claims to the Paracel and Spratly archipelagoes was not undertaken as a prelude to a recommendation that the United States depart from its long held position of not taking a position on competing sovereignty claims in the South China Sea. That is not the intent, nor is it one of the recommendations of the project.

Reviving the Caliphate

/analyses/2014/reviving-the-caliphate

In 2007, CNA hosted a conference on the topic of the caliphate. At that time, there were calls for the reestablishment of the caliphate coming from certain Islamist circles, including groups such as Hizb ut-Tahrir and al-Qaeda. In the wake of multiple crises throughout the Muslim world, these calls appeared to be gaining in relevance and support. The goal of the conference was to better understand who supported the restoration of the caliphate, why, and ultimately what such an outcome might mean for U.S. policy and interests in the Muslim world. To answer these questions, we convened over 25 experts on Islam from around the world to discuss the caliphate, focusing on what the institution means to Muslims today, its historical significance, and what applicability, if any, it has in the modern era.