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ROCP Officer and Reserve Personnel Readiness

/analyses/2017/rocp-officer-and-reserve-personnel-readiness

During Operations Iraqi Freedom and Enduring Freedom, the Marine Corps had to augment active component (AC) officers to fill vacant platoon leader billets at activated Selected Marine Corps Reserve (SMCR) units. In 2006, the Reserve Officer Commissioning Program (ROCP) was created to recruit non-prior-service officers into the SMCR. This study looks at the performance of the ROCP candidates and their effect on SMCR personnel readiness. We find that ROCP candidates perform similarly to their AC counterparts and tend to affiliate with the SMCR beyond their initial obligations—particularly if they have active-duty (AD) experience. We also found a positive relationship between the presence of lieutenants at SMCR units and the retention of nonobligor enlisted Marines. We recommend that the Marine Corps explore opportunities to expand ROCP recruiting sources, provide ROCP officers with AD experience, and continue to monitor ROCP officers’ career development as the program matures.

Al Qaeda Core A Case Study

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Section 1228 of the 2015 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) states: “The Secretary of Defense, in coordination with the Secretary of State and the Director of National Intelligence, shall provide for the conduct of an independent assessment of the effectiveness of the United States’ efforts to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat Al- Qaeda, including its affiliated groups, associated groups, and adherents since September 11, 2001.” The Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations/Low Intensity Conflict (ASD (SO/LIC)) asked CNA to conduct this independent assessment, which was completed in August 2017. In order to conduct this assessment, CNA used a comparative methodology that included eight case studies on groups affiliated or associated with Al-Qaeda. These case studies were then used as a dataset for cross-case comparison. This document is a stand-alone version of the Al-Qaeda “Core” case study used in the Independent Assessment. CNA is publishing each of the eight case studies separately for the convenience of analysts and others who may have a regional or functional focus that corresponds to a specific case study. For the context in which this case study was used and for CNA’s full findings, see Independent Assessment of U.S. Government Efforts against Al-Qaeda.

Bangladesh vs India Positive Order in Public Sea

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In the last five years, two international arbitrations have resolved decades-old maritime boundary disputes in the Bay of Bengal. The first, between Bangladesh and Myanmar, was resolved in March 2012 by the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS). The second, between Bangladesh and India, was resolved in 2014 by a tribunal of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague. An earlier CNA study analyzed the Bangladesh v. Myanmar case and its implications for future maritime disputes. This study follows that up with an overview of the Bangladesh v. India case history, a legal assessment of the ruling, and an analysis of the implications of the ruling for India-Bangladesh bilateral relations, maritime disputes in the South China Sea and elsewhere, and for U.S. oceans policy.

Navy Manpower Planning

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We have tried to provide an overview of Navy manpower planning. We hope we have also conveyed the complexity of Navy MPT&E, and that there are few simple answers to the many issues facing Navy MPT&E managers. Good management decisions can be and are being routinely made. Such decisions, however, nearly always require flexibility and a broad perspective regarding their immediate and secondary/unanticipated consequences. We have focused on active duty Navy personnel. The Reserves, civil servants, and contractors also make important contributions to the running of the Navy, but they are secondary to our active duty military personnel. Hence, they are omitted from this monograph to provide a more sharply focused document.

Analytic Framework for Emulating Russian Decision Making

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The purpose of this report is to propose an analytical framework for emulating Russian decision-making in the national security realm. The framework is paired with a methodology that allows the user to systematically examine what Russian decision- making would look like in response to a foreign policy crisis. The framework is presented in the first section and then applied to three potential crisis scenarios in Eastern Europe. The analytical structure presented is meant to be used as a guideline. It offers potential answers, tools, and a systematic method for emulation that allows users to formulate decision-trees for Russian actions on the basis of reasonable assumptions about how Russia might act in various situations. The final product can be further developed and refined on the basis of observation of Russian actions in future interactions with its adversaries and behavior in crisis situations.

China Military Support Facility in Djibouti

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In November 2015, China publicly acknowledged for the first time that it is building its first overseas military facility in Djibouti, which is also home to the largest U.S. military installation in Africa. How did China come to establish its first overseas military support facility in Djibouti? What do we know about this facility and how it might be used, and what insights can we glean from the process to better understand where China’s military might go next? This paper provides a preliminary look at the origins of China’s military support facility in Djibouti. It explores the evolution of the economic and security relations between the two countries that led to the establishment of the facility, how it may be used, and what it may tell us about future Chinese military facilities abroad. It also assesses the implications of the growing economic and military ties between the two countries for the United States and the U.S. Navy.

Unconstrained FDI Arctic Security

/analyses/2017/unconstrained-fdi-arctic-security

The earth’s polar environments are often thought of as barren, desolate regions ruled by polar bears and covered in ice. And while certainly cold, the Arctic region is far from a valueless waste. Rich in mineral, metal, oil, and gas deposits, as well as vast, unexploited fisheries, the Arctic contains resources estimated to be worth many billions of dollars. About 70 percent of these resources fall within the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of the Arctic littoral states: Canada, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, and the United States. Much of history’s interest in the Arctic has been confined to the explorer’s curiosity and the admiral’s desk. However, we are entering a new era for the Arctic, in which interest in the region and its resources is at an all-time high. Outside states, such as China, have made substantial investments with the strategic intent to do more. The question remains whether the legal and regulatory environment is capable of dealing with significant new foreign direct investment while at the same time protecting the Arctic Ocean and surrounding environment.

AI and Autonomy Opportunities and Challenges

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The military is on the cusp of a major technological revolution, in which warfare is conducted by unmanned and increasingly autonomous weapon systems. This exploratory study considers the state-of-the-art of artificial intelligence (AI), machine- learning, and robot technologies, and their potential future military implications for autonomous (and semi-autonomous) weapon systems. Although no one can predict how AI will evolve or how it will affect the development of military autonomous systems, we can anticipate many of the conceptual, technical, and operational challenges that DOD will face as it increasingly turns to AI-based technologies. We identified four key gaps facing DOD as the military evolves toward an “autonomy era”: (1) a mismatch of timescales between the pace of commercial innovation and DOD’s acquisition process; (2) an underappreciation of the fundamental unpredictability of autonomous systems; (3) a lack of a universally agreed upon conceptual framework for autonomy; and (4) a disconnect between the design of autonomous systems and CONOPS development. We examine these gaps, provide a roadmap of opportunities and challenges, and identify areas of future studies.

Insights for the Third Offset

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CNA conducts analysis for the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense (DOD), and other sponsors, ranging across policy, strategy, organizational processes, technical performance of military systems, and current operations. Because of the expected impact of autonomy and artificial intelligence (AI) to the character of warfare, CNA has created a Center for Autonomy and Artificial Intelligence to focus on these emerging technologies and their significant role in U.S. defense policy and all the military services. The Center combines CNA’s strengths and experience in conducting objective analysis of U.S. military operations with focused expertise in autonomy and other aspects of AI. This report, the first created by the new Center, takes lessons and insights from CNA’s body of work for the Navy and the joint force, including CNA’s field program of embedded analysts in military commands around the world. Though much of the emerging technology examined in this report is new, the approach of applying lessons from U.S. operations and institutional processes to key challenges in leveraging autonomy and AI continues CNA’S applied research paradigm of exploring many opportunities to resolve or work around challenges that have been seen before. The aim of this report is to anticipate challenges of “Third Offset” implementation based on past lessons, and then provide concrete recommendations for promoting the effective incorporation of autonomy, AI, and related technologies in U.S. military operations. This report discusses making autonomy and AI militarily effective from an acquisition and technology perspective, and how to pursue these capabilities in ways that are consistent with long-standing U.S. values and that promote broader U.S. national interests.

AI Robots and Swarms

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The military is on the cusp of a major technological revolution, in which warfare is conducted by unmanned and increasingly autonomous weapon systems. However, unlike the last “sea change,” during the Cold War, when advanced technologies were developed primarily by the Department of Defense (DoD), the key technology enablers today are being developed mostly in the commercial world. This study looks at the state-of-the-art of AI, machine-learning, and robot technologies, and their potential future military implications for autonomous (and semi-autonomous) weapon systems. While no one can predict how AI will evolve or predict its impact on the development of military autonomous systems, it is possible to anticipate many of the conceptual, technical, and operational challenges that DoD will face as it increasingly turns to AI-based technologies. This study examines key issues, identifies analysis gaps, and provides a roadmap of opportunities and challenges. It concludes with a list of recommended future studies.