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Shining a Light on the Western Balkans

/analyses/2017/shining-a-light-on-the-western-balkans

Since the civil wars of the 1990s, the Western Balkans region has been plagued by conflict and instability. The United States and Western Europe disengaged from this region in the last decade, and the Western Balkan countries have become particularly unstable due to internal vulnerabilities and external influence from state and non- state actors. CNA initiated a study to assess these internal vulnerabilities and external influence and threats from Russia, international terrorism, and transnational organized crime. Using research and semi-structured discussions with subject matter experts in the United States, Serbia, and Macedonia, including recent U.S. senior military and civilian leaders, this paper presents findings and implications for U.S. and European civilian and military leaders to consider in order to proactively engage in this region, and promote a regional strategy that supports a Europe that is “whole and free,” and one that is based on Western institutions and democratic principles.

Independent Assessment of US Government Efforts against Al Qaeda

/analyses/2017/independent-assessment-of-us-government-efforts-against-al-qaeda

Section 1228 of the 2015 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) states, “The Secretary of Defense, in coordination with the Secretary of State and the Director of National Intelligence, shall provide for the conduct of an independent assessment of the effectiveness of the United States’ efforts to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat Al- Qaeda, including its affiliated groups, associated groups, and adherents since September 11, 2001.” The Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations/Low Intensity Conflict (ASD (SO/LIC)) asked CNA to conduct this independent assessment, the results of which are presented in this report.

Future Policy Options for US Efforts Against Al Qaeda

/analyses/2017/future-policy-options-for-us-efforts-against-al-qaeda

In its independent assessment of U.S. government efforts against Al-Qaeda that was mandated by Congress via the 2015 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), CNA concluded that the current U.S. strategy toward Al-Qaeda was unlikely to achieve its stated goals to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat the group. CNA recommended that the U.S. government should undertake a new review of its policy goals and overarching strategy against Al-Qaeda. This occasional paper presents three potential policy options for the U.S. government to consider, should it seek to undertake such a review. These options are retrenchment, escalation, and containment.

Transnational Challenges and US National Security

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By their very nature, transnational challenges are murky and often intermingled, and thus are difficult to analyze. This report provides an introductory examination to these challenges in an effort to build understanding around what they are and why they matter to current U.S. national security. Through our research, we derived a definition for transnational challenges and then used that definition to identify 11 such challenges that impact U.S. national security interests today. We observe trends and patterns among these challenges, including how they relate to one another and how they may evolve over time. We end with thoughts on which transnational challenges the United States should focus on, and why.

The Role of Special Operations Forces in Global Competition

/analyses/2017/the-role-of-special-operations-forces-in-global-competition

Nations have a variety of options for exerting influence, such as through diplomatic, military, or economic means. In recent years, some nations have shifted to more ambiguous activities for exerting global influence, in attempts to achieve benefits normally obtained through conventional war, but without triggering such a war. In this report, we explored a different way of thinking about these ambiguous activities and their implications, which suggested a need to shift U.S. focus away from preparing to win tomorrow and toward winning today. From this shift, we described a different approach to U.S. activities in such competitive environments. We also identified the unique qualities of U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF) as the military force having the best alignment with these different activities.

ADVANCED ENERGY AND US NATIONAL SECURITY

/analyses/2017/advanced-energy-and-us-national-security

The CNA’s Military Advisory Board (MAB) first assessed the relationship of the U.S. energy posture energy to our national security in a 2009 report, Powering America’s Defense: Energy and the Risks to National Security. That study revealed urgent threats to major aspects of national security–military, diplomatic, and economic strength. We delved further in three subsequent reports. After almost a decade’s immersion in the subject, we concluded that our energy posture must allow us to adapt readily to longer-term changes in how energy is produced, stored, distributed, and used. Thus, we began the study discussed here, which considers the national security implications– both positive and negative–of the transition toward advanced energy.

ROCP Officer and Reserve Personnel Readiness

/analyses/2017/rocp-officer-and-reserve-personnel-readiness

During Operations Iraqi Freedom and Enduring Freedom, the Marine Corps had to augment active component (AC) officers to fill vacant platoon leader billets at activated Selected Marine Corps Reserve (SMCR) units. In 2006, the Reserve Officer Commissioning Program (ROCP) was created to recruit non-prior-service officers into the SMCR. This study looks at the performance of the ROCP candidates and their effect on SMCR personnel readiness. We find that ROCP candidates perform similarly to their AC counterparts and tend to affiliate with the SMCR beyond their initial obligations—particularly if they have active-duty (AD) experience. We also found a positive relationship between the presence of lieutenants at SMCR units and the retention of nonobligor enlisted Marines. We recommend that the Marine Corps explore opportunities to expand ROCP recruiting sources, provide ROCP officers with AD experience, and continue to monitor ROCP officers’ career development as the program matures.

Al Qaeda Core A Case Study

/analyses/2017/al-qaeda-core-a-case-study

Section 1228 of the 2015 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) states: “The Secretary of Defense, in coordination with the Secretary of State and the Director of National Intelligence, shall provide for the conduct of an independent assessment of the effectiveness of the United States’ efforts to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat Al- Qaeda, including its affiliated groups, associated groups, and adherents since September 11, 2001.” The Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations/Low Intensity Conflict (ASD (SO/LIC)) asked CNA to conduct this independent assessment, which was completed in August 2017. In order to conduct this assessment, CNA used a comparative methodology that included eight case studies on groups affiliated or associated with Al-Qaeda. These case studies were then used as a dataset for cross-case comparison. This document is a stand-alone version of the Al-Qaeda “Core” case study used in the Independent Assessment. CNA is publishing each of the eight case studies separately for the convenience of analysts and others who may have a regional or functional focus that corresponds to a specific case study. For the context in which this case study was used and for CNA’s full findings, see Independent Assessment of U.S. Government Efforts against Al-Qaeda.

Bangladesh vs India Positive Order in Public Sea

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In the last five years, two international arbitrations have resolved decades-old maritime boundary disputes in the Bay of Bengal. The first, between Bangladesh and Myanmar, was resolved in March 2012 by the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS). The second, between Bangladesh and India, was resolved in 2014 by a tribunal of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague. An earlier CNA study analyzed the Bangladesh v. Myanmar case and its implications for future maritime disputes. This study follows that up with an overview of the Bangladesh v. India case history, a legal assessment of the ruling, and an analysis of the implications of the ruling for India-Bangladesh bilateral relations, maritime disputes in the South China Sea and elsewhere, and for U.S. oceans policy.

Navy Manpower Planning

/analyses/2017/navy-manpower-planning

We have tried to provide an overview of Navy manpower planning. We hope we have also conveyed the complexity of Navy MPT&E, and that there are few simple answers to the many issues facing Navy MPT&E managers. Good management decisions can be and are being routinely made. Such decisions, however, nearly always require flexibility and a broad perspective regarding their immediate and secondary/unanticipated consequences. We have focused on active duty Navy personnel. The Reserves, civil servants, and contractors also make important contributions to the running of the Navy, but they are secondary to our active duty military personnel. Hence, they are omitted from this monograph to provide a more sharply focused document.