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Proxy Warfare

/analyses/2019/07/proxy-warfare

Proxy warfare—that is, conflict in which a “major power instigates or plays a major role in supporting and directing to a conflict but does only a small portion of the actual fighting itself”—is receiving new attention from policymakers, analysts, and practitioners. This study uses a series of four case studies on US involvement in proxy war (the “Secret War” in Laos, the Contras in Central America, the African Union Mission in Somalia, and the Syrian Defense Forces) to develop a set of key themes. These themes, in turn, form the basis of a set of rules of thumb to guide senior decisionmakers as they contemplate the future use of proxy forces. Finally, this report discusses implications for U.S. Special Operations Forces, which are likely to play an increasingly important role in supporting U.S. proxies.

and consequences. We then used these factors as the foundation for a comparative analysis, which we used to identify seven key themes across the cases: Proxy forces have helped the United States ... —their relatively low cost, their disposability, and their deniability— suggests that their continued use will prove to be an attractive foreign policy option for the United States and its rivals

CNA: A Trusted Partner in Maritime and Defense Revitalization

/quick-looks/2025/08/cna-a-trusted-partner-in-maritime-and-defense-revitalization

After decades of declining US shipbuilding and US-flagged maritime trade, leaders in Washington are prioritizing a renaissance of American seapower.

not only funding and policy support, but also world-class data analytics, labor analysis, and strategic planning. CNA offers critical resources in these areas. /quick-looks/2025/08

Preparing for Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response in Large-Scale Combat Operations

/quick-looks/2024/11/preparing-for-civilian-harm-mitigation-and-response-in-large-scale-combat-operations

Civilian harm mitigation and response requires a comprehensive approach. This report makes recommendations for mitigation, response, learning, analysis, and reporting.

for mitigation, response, learning, analysis, and reporting. In 2022, Secretary of Defense (SECDEF) Lloyd Austin directed the creation of the Department of Defense’s (DOD’s) Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response Action Plan (CHMR-AP). The action plan is based on lessons from and analysis of real-world operations and contains SECDEF-directed actions to meet two overall goals: improving DOD’s ability ... , the Office of Special Operations/Low-Intensity Conflict in the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy requested that CNA develop practical steps DOD can take to prepare for mitigating and responding

Crime Analysis in Action: Success Stories from the Crime Analyst in Residence Program

/our-media/indepth/2023/10/crime-analysis-success-stories

The Crime Analyst in Residence program of the US Department of Justice helps rural and small-town police departments use data analytics to reduce crime.

of crime analysis into policy and accountability mechanisms is vital for sustainability. Generating support and buy-in for crime analysis should extend across all levels of a department. It’s not only ... Crime Analysis Success Stories The Crime Analyst in Residence program of the US Department of Justice helps rural and small-town police departments use data analytics to reduce crime. /images/InDepth/2023/09/Crime-Analysis-Map.jpg Crime Analyst in Residence Program Success Stories Crime Analysis in Action: Success Stories from the Crime Analyst in Residence Program Amanda K. Bruner Amanda K

Beijing Starts to Unpack the US National Security Strategy

/our-media/indepth/2025/12/beijing-starts-to-unpack-the-us-national-security-strategy

Experts in China reacting to the 2025 US National Security Strategy see it as a fundamental recalibration of US grand strategy that emphasizes economic issues.

chains, industrial policy, and technology. While official interpretations remain hidden from view, peering through the window of active debate across China’s expert community provides a hint ... deliberation. Ministry of State Security Think Tank President Fu Xiaoqiang on the NSS A livelier discussion of the NSS can be found in the PRC’s expert and foreign policy watcher community. PRC analysts in this space have begun to assess the implications of the new strategy for the US–China relationship and China’s broader strategic interests. Among the expert commentary surveyed, analysis by Fu

Thirteen COVID-19 Resources that Use Artificial Intelligence

/our-media/indepth/2020/05/thirteen-covid-19-resources-that-use-artificial-intelligence

Andy Ilachinski and David Broyles, co-hosts of AI with AI, CNA's popular podcast on artificial intelligence, have compiled a timely, annotated list of AI developments and resources related to COVID-19.

and the coronavirus family of viruses. More than 13,000 are available with full text. Created by the Allen Institute for AI at the request of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy ... coronavirus resources are updated daily and include analyses and visualizations (e.g., guides to action, COVID-19 guidelines, and recommendations for policy makers), position statements, exploration ... . An analysis of the first batch of data recorded by the app, collected between March 24 and 29,  revealed that users who tested positive for COVID-19 were three times more likely to report losing

A Process for Using LLMs in a National Security Research Organization

/our-media/indepth/2024/05/a-process-for-using-llms-in-a-national-security-research-organization

We collaborated across disciplines to develop a process to safely introduce large language models without compromising quality or national security.

nonprofit that produces analysis for the military and for homeland security agencies. Our success over more than 80 years has depended upon government confidence in our research quality and in our ability ... engaged in a collaborative and flexible four-step process: Understand requirements and risks Establish policy and guidance Enter into a contract with employees Collect feedback and adjust ... research risk is that many LLMs do not provide complete citations for generated text, raising concerns about plagiarism. Establish policy and guidance We needed a collaborative approach bridging

Unique Challenges of Wildfire Cleanups Confront Los Angeles

/our-media/indepth/2025/01/unique-challenges-of-wildfire-cleanups-confront-los-angeles

The debris removal process after the wildfires in Los Angeles could benefit from lessons learned by CNA in after-action reviews from previous wildfire cleanups.

wildfires and floods to active shooters. The Greater Los Angeles wildfires are mostly contained for the moment, but CNA analysis of previous fire disasters suggests that a surprisingly difficult and potentially hazardous effort lies ahead: debris removal. Previous CNA support of federal and state wildfire after-action reviews found that debris removal missions are susceptible to challenges in policy ... , many of which are relevant to LA’s clean-up. Policy and Planning. Due to the complex phased approach needed to safely remove wildfire debris, previous CNA after-action reviews have found

Reducing the Navy's Risk of Suicides

/our-media/indepth/2019/10/reducing-the-navys-risk-of-suicides

The tragic news that three sailors took their own lives on the USS George H.W. Bush in September has caused the author to reflect on CNA's role in helping the Department of the Navy prevent suicides.

and at particular stages in their careers. This work pinpointed the critical need to focus special attention on high-risk groups. The analysis indirectly led to changes in policy. More recently, CNA’s Peggy ... to reduce destructive behaviors. Now that the dataset has been assembled and demonstrated, the Navy has a new tool for pursuing many more suicide-related analyses to inform policy and programming ... and to respond appropriately, while still achieving ship readiness and combat effectiveness. No single tool or piece of analysis will magically solve the serious problem of suicide that is vexing

Africa is China’s Testing Ground for Overseas Military Missions

/our-media/indepth/2024/10/africa-is-chinas-testing-ground-for-overseas-military-missions

China’s military activities in Africa—including its first overseas military base—have become entrenched. China has ambitions for a deeper African presence.

The Military and Security Dimensions of the PRC’s Africa Presence: Changes in a Time of Global Shocks along with colleagues from CNA’s China Studies Program and Strategy and Policy Analysis Program ... . The Growth of China’s Military Presence in Africa   Africa has long played a prominent role in the PRC’s concept of its foreign policy . But only in the last two decades has Africa also become ... in Africa is a significant shift in its foreign policy after decades of criticizing the West as “expansionist military powers” for having overseas bases. The PRC maintains roughly 4,100 PLA