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Implication of Social Media Bots

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CNA initiated this study of social media bots—automated programs on social media platforms—to explore their implications for US special operations forces (SOF) and the broader national security community. This report explains social media bots and botnets, explores the threat of automation and the role of social media bots as a tool of disinformation, and introduces a taxonomy of six activities that social media bots and botnets can engage in: distributing, amplifying, distorting, hijacking, flooding, and fracturing. It then identifies likely evolutions in the nearto mid-term futures and explores the implications of those futures for SOF. The report examines opportunities and risks for SOF and concludes with examples of potential SOF use in each of the six identified social media bot and botnet activities.

AI in Russia Issue 11

/analyses/2020/09/ai-in-russia-issue-11

This report, the eleventh in a series of biweekly updates, is part of an effort by CNA to provide timely, accurate, and relevant information and analysis of the field of civilian and military artificial intelligence (AI) in Russia and, in particular, how Russia is applying AI to its military capabilities. It relies on Russian-language open source material.

AI in Russia Issue 10

/analyses/2020/09/ai-in-russia-issue-10

This report, the tenth in a series of biweekly updates, is part of an effort by CNA to provide timely, accurate, and relevant information and analysis of the field of civilian and military artificial intelligence (AI) in Russia and, in particular, how Russia is applying AI to its military capabilities. It relies on Russian-language open source material.

Putting Innovation into Practice

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Innovation is a key enabling concept in the 2018 National Defense Strategy. Not only does the US military need to continue to maintain effectiveness in military operations, but in the face of a new competitive environment, and the increasing importance of commercial technology, the US will need to practice innovation to maintain a military edge and meet national security goals. The critical role of innovation is repeated throughout the NDS. But what can the US do to pursue effective innovation? And what is innovation anyway? We examine innovation through consideration of specific military examples—both historical and contemporary—as well as examining academic literature and past CNA products addressing innovation. After developing a functional definition of innovation, we provide best practices and principles that DOD can apply in order to put innovation into practice.

Prevailing Under the Nuclear Shadow

/analyses/2020/09/prevailing-under-the-nuclear-shadow

The United States has characterized today’s geopolitical environment as a “long-term, strategic competition between nations.” This competition includes renewed emphasis on the role of nuclear weapons in international affairs by the nucleararmed competitors of the US—Russia, China, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). These adversaries view competition with the US as having a nuclear dimension that is not confined to high-end warfare. Accordingly, the US must anticipate that nuclear weapons will play a central role in a regional conflict with any of these opponents. This reality underscores the importance of preparing policy-makers to manage escalation during a conflict taking place under the nuclear shadow. The use of nuclear weapons in a war between the US and its allies and Russia, China, or the DPRK would be not only militarily significant, but would also have major political and normative consequences. Yet practical concepts for escalation management are lacking in the post-Cold War, contemporary great power context. To fill that gap, this report proposes foundational elements for a nuclear escalation management framework. This novel framework leverages key concepts from escalation theory and risk management literature to create a structured, analytical process for US policy-makers and planners to evaluate potential courses of action (COAs) that could be employed to achieve favorable escalation management with nucleararmed competitors.

Why Special Operations

/analyses/2020/09/why-special-operations

There is today a burgeoning discussion in the literature as to what really constitutes a “special operation,” what makes the forces that conduct them “special,” whether these aspects are so different from conventional military operations and forces as to warrant their own theory, and, if they do, what such a theory should be. This paper addresses an aspect of special operations that has yet to be explained adequately—the question of why special operations are conducted. The answer lies in the consideration of risk. Because policy-makers are inherently reliant upon some form of popular support to maintain their positions of power, they are also inherently averse to taking risky actions. The centrality of risk to policy decisions leads directly to this definition: special operations are unorthodox military solutions to difficult policy problems that lower the level of risk to policy-makers. This definition leads to a risk-centric theory of why special operations are conducted: if policy-makers have a difficult policy problem and they are unsatisfied with the level of risk presented by orthodox solutions or inaction, then they will choose special operations. After deriving this theory, this paper evaluates it, applies it to the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound in Pakistan, and discusses implications of the theory for the future of US special operations forces.

Enlistment Waivers

/analyses/2020/10/enlistment-waivers

Study examines the history, trends, policies, and practices involving U.S. military waivers used at both enlistment and entry-level separations, or discharges.

AI in Russia Issue 13

/analyses/2020/10/ai-in-russia-issue-13

This report, the thirteenth in a series of biweekly updates, is part of an effort by CNA to provide timely, accurate, and relevant information and analysis of the field of civilian and military artificial intelligence (AI) in Russia and, in particular, how Russia is applying AI to its military capabilities. It relies on Russian-language open source material.

AI in Russia Issue 12

/analyses/2020/10/ai-in-russia-issue-12

This report, the twelfth in a series of biweekly updates, is part of an effort by CNA to provide timely, accurate, and relevant information and analysis of the field of civilian and military artificial intelligence (AI) in Russia and, in particular, how Russia is applying AI to its military capabilities. It relies on Russian-language open source material.

Chinas Space Narrative

/analyses/2020/10/chinas-space-narrative

Both China and the United States, have created separate parts of their military dedicated to space. Commercial, scientific, and military endeavors in space are all intimately linked, and one must understand how they are viewed to better understand how a nation might proceed in one or all of those fields. In accordance with our charter to support the Secretary of the Air Force, the Chief of Staff of the Air Force, the Chief of Space Operations, and other DoD and U.S. government leaders, the China Aerospace Studies Institute designed it’s 2020 CASI Conference around China’s space activities. This report serves as the baseline and the core of that effort. This report was a collaboration between CASI and CNA’s China and Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Division. We would like to thank the team at CNA for their work on this project. The authors would like to thank Second Lieutenant Owen Ou (USA) for contributing his research for this project, and Dr. Brian Weeden for his review of the study