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AI and Autonomy Understanding and Mitigating Risks

/analyses/2018/08/ai-and-autonomy-understanding-and-mitigating-risks

Given the rapid and significant advances in AI, the strong interest in leveraging this technology from advanced militaries, and the urgent concerns voiced in the media, we examined commonly held concerns of AI and autonomy in war. We found that these concerns, on further examination, were not quite what they seemed on first blush. Some concerns were inconsistent with the current state of the technology, such as assuming that general AI is feasible when most estimates place this development many decades away (if ever). Others do not adequately consider the way military systems are actually structured and conducted, in which AI-enabled and autonomous systems would operate as part of a larger process for delivering the use of force. This larger context helps address concerns about accountability and discrimination. Note that we did not argue that these concerns are spurious—they have value because they can lead to much needed debates and discussions regarding ethical issues of this emerging technology. However, we emphasized that the real risk in a military context (expressed in operational outcomes such as civilian casualties and fratricide) is low from these commonly held concerns. This is important from a risk management perspective because a mismatch between efforts to mitigate risk and the actual sources of risk could lead to the pursuit of ineffective solutions.

/DOP-2018-U-018296-Final.pdf /reports/2018/08/DOP-2018-U-018296-Final_Page_01.jpg /reports/2018/08/AI%20soldier.jpg Special Activities and Intelligence /centers-and-divisions/cna/ow

Great Power Competition in the Indian Ocean

/analyses/2018/03/great-power-competition-in-the-indian-ocean

U.S. Navy planners should assume that the PLA Navy’s presence in the western Indian Ocean will grow, and that new bases and places will be organized to support its expanded presence. U.S. authorities can no longer assume unencumbered freedom of action when electing to posture U.S. naval forces offshore of the Horn of Africa and other East African hotspots. If China’s interests are involved and differ from Washington’s, the Chinese could dispatch their own naval forces to the water offshore of the country in question. The U.S. Navy faced similar circumstances between 1968 and 1991, when the United States and the Soviet Union competed for friends, political influence, maritime access, and bases in the western Indian Ocean region. This paper briefly discusses this period in order to provide some historical context for what might occur in the future. As Mark Twain purportedly quipped, “History does not repeat, but it often rhymes.”

/DOP-2017-U-015750-Final2.pdf /reports/2018/03/DOP-2017-U-015750-Final2_Page_01.jpg /reports/2018/03/china%20soviet.jpg Countering Threats and Challenges /centers-and-divisions/cna/rsp

Supply Chain Resilience and the 2017 Hurricane Season

/analyses/2018/01/supply-chain-resilience-and-the-2017-hurricane-season

CNA assessed post-hurricane supply chain resilience of food, fuel, water, and medical supplies through government disaster relief and the private sector.

Supply Chain Resilience and the 2017 Hurricane Season Supply Chain Resilience and the 2017 Hurricane Season CNA assessed post-hurricane supply chain resilience of food, fuel, water, and medical supplies through government disaster relief and the private sector. A collection of case studies about Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria and their impact on supply chain resilience Engaging Reality. Avoiding Catastrophe. The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season demonstrated that when extreme events impact large, densely concentrated populations, survival is dependent on the ability to quickly

Agentic AI Two-Pager

/quick-looks/2025/08/agentic-ai-two-pager

Agentic AI represents a transformative shift from traditional AI models by enabling systems to carry out complex tasks over time and adapt based on context and memory.

Agentic AI Two-Pager Agentic AI represents a transformative shift from traditional AI models by enabling systems to carry out complex tasks over time and adapt based on context and memory. Agentic AI represents a transformative shift from traditional AI models by enabling systems to carry out complex tasks over time and adapt based on context and memory. Unlike single-turn prompt-response models, agentic systems form persistent feedback loops to perceive, decide, act, and self-correct toward user-defined goals, behaving more like collaborators. CNA has developed several agentic AI

Organizational Innovation in Policing

/quick-looks/2025/08/organizational-innovation-in-policing

JRI has worked with more than 650 agencies and organizations to assess challenges analytically and develop responses that reduce violent crime, improve the use of emerging technologies, and promote the safety and wellness of justice system stakeholders.

Organizational Innovation in Policing JRI has worked with more than 650 agencies and organizations to assess challenges analytically and develop responses that reduce violent crime, improve the use of emerging technologies, and promote the safety and wellness of justice system stakeholders. CNA’s Center for Justice Research and Innovation (JRI) has worked with more than 650 agencies and organizations to assess challenges analytically and develop responses that reduce violent crime, improve the use of emerging technologies, and promote the safety and wellness of justice system stakeholders

BTAM: There Are No "Typical" Cases

/quick-looks/2025/03/btam-there-are-no-typical-cases

In 2021, Ohio House Bill 123, the Safety and Violence Education Students was enacted. One consequence of the legislation was that it created a need for a follow-on plan at the local level.

or targeted violence prevention program, it can be tempting to outline a single process for identifying and handling relevant cases. CNA’s evaluation of targeted violence prevention efforts in Wood County

Preparing for Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response in Large-Scale Combat Operations

/quick-looks/2024/11/preparing-for-civilian-harm-mitigation-and-response-in-large-scale-combat-operations

Civilian harm mitigation and response requires a comprehensive approach. This report makes recommendations for mitigation, response, learning, analysis, and reporting.

, the Office of Special Operations/Low-Intensity Conflict in the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy requested that CNA develop practical steps DOD can take to prepare for mitigating and responding

China Readies Drone Swarms for Future War

/our-media/indepth/2025/09/china-readies-drone-swarms-for-future-war

New CNA analysis highlights China’s efforts to build and test drone swarms to fight in Taiwan and technology to defend against competitors’ drone swarms.

China Readies Drone Swarms for Future War New CNA analysis highlights China’s efforts to build and test drone swarms to fight in Taiwan and technology to defend against competitors’ drone swarms. /images/InDepth/2025/09/Jiu-Tian-CCTV.webp China Readies Drone Swarms for Future War /images/InDepth/2025/09/Jiu-Tian-CCTV-metaimage.jpg Timothy Ditter Timothy Ditter is a senior research scientist in CNA’s China Studies Program . Five years ago, China’s paramount leader Xi Jinping called on the People’s Liberation Army to “accelerate its drone warfare research and training.” After considerable

Africa is China’s Testing Ground for Overseas Military Missions

/our-media/indepth/2024/10/africa-is-chinas-testing-ground-for-overseas-military-missions

China’s military activities in Africa—including its first overseas military base—have become entrenched. China has ambitions for a deeper African presence.

Military Missions Timothy Ditter Timothy Ditter is a Senior Research Scientist in CNA’s China Studies Program . Over the past decade or so, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has entrenched itself ... The Military and Security Dimensions of the PRC’s Africa Presence: Changes in a Time of Global Shocks along with colleagues from CNA’s China Studies Program and Strategy and Policy Analysis Program

Dangers and Opportunities as China’s Loans to Africa Come Due

/our-media/indepth/2024/03/china-loans-to-africa

In Africa, China’s infrastructure loans, secretive contracts, and inflexible debt negotiations have caused economic and debt distress in some countries.

China Loans to Africa In Africa, China’s infrastructure loans, secretive contracts, and inflexible debt negotiations have caused economic and debt distress in some countries. /images/InDepth/2024/03/africa-map-china-yuan.webp Dangers and Opportunities as China’s Loans to Africa Come Due Timothy Ditter Timothy Ditter is a Research Scientist in CNA’s China Studies Program. Many African economies ... resilience by diversifying their economic partnerships and seeking out lenders with better terms and different motivations. I and other CNA analysts from our China Studies and Strategy and Policy