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The Psychology of Disinformation Case Studies

/analyses/2021/10/the-psychology-of-disinformation-case-studies

The absorption and spread of disinformation is a pervasive phenomenon across a wide variety of topics and media. Most disinformation research focuses on the source (who created it?) and the environment in which it exists (what platform/medium transmits the information?). Recognizing that disinformation primarily works in an individual person’s mind, this report describes four normal, routine psychological mechanisms that are associated with the absorption and spread of disinformation. We then describe real-world case studies—focusing on activities linked to COVID-19, and to campaigns coordinated by US adversaries including Russia, China, and Iran—to illustrate the way these mechanisms can be manipulated to aid the spread disinformation. The report concludes with multi-pronged recommendations that DOD can use to address the vulnerabilities associated with these psychological mechanisms so as prevent the spread of disinformation and protect both US servicemembers and the country.

The PLA and Intelligent Warfare Preliminary Analysis

/analyses/2021/10/the-pla-and-intelligent-warfare-preliminary-analysis

China’s army, the PLA, is exploring “intelligent warfare” using AI and autonomous weapons, CNA analysis of PLA writings shows. The US should prepare accordingly.

Psychology of Disinformation Key Psychological Mechanisms

/analyses/2021/10/psychology-of-disinformation-key-psychological-mechanisms

We explore the underlying psychological principles facilitating the absorption and spread of disinformation and outline options for countering disinformation grounded in in cognitive and social psychological literature.

Reimagining Defense Strategy

/analyses/2021/10/reimagining-defense-strategy

This event continued a conversation begun at CNA’s September 16, 2021, National Security Seminar, titled “Planning for Tomorrow’s Threats: Overcoming Obstacles to Organize, Adapt, and Innovate.” In this event, we heard insights on defense strategy from Christian Brose, Chief Strategy Officer of Anduril Industries, a defense technology company. Mr. Brose shared his perspective as a former staff director of the Senate Armed Services Committee under Chairman John McCain. He is also the author of The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare. Dr. Carter Malkasian, from CNA, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The event was recorded and is available online.

Preparing for Tomorrows Threats Overcoming Obstacles

/analyses/2021/10/preparing-for-tomorrows-threats-overcoming-obstacles

Preparing for future threats is a vital concern for US strategists. Innovation is one way to confront the threats we may face in the future, but achieving innovation presents organizational, cultural, decisionmaking, and technological challenges. To help strategists and policy-makers navigate these obstacles, CNA’s National Security Seminar (NSS) convened three experts to share their perspectives from their service at different offices within the Pentagon: General James T. Conway (US Marine Corps, ret.), the 34th Commandant of the Marine Corps; Dr. Jamie M. Morin, former Director of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE) at the Department of Defense; and Dr. Francis G. Hoffman, Distinguished Research Fellow at National Defense University, who was instrumental in authoring the 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS). The discussion, moderated by CNA’s Dr. Carter Malkasian, was divided into two parts: the first identified obstacles to innovation, and the second looked at how to overcome those obstacles. The event was recorded and is available online.

AI and Autonomy in Russia Issue 23

/analyses/2021/10/ai-and-autonomy-in-russia-issue-23

CNA provides information and analysis of the field of civilian and military AI in Russia and how Russia is applying AI to its military capabilities. Issue 23.

Reconstituting a Viable and Effective A76 Program

/analyses/2021/10/reconstituting-a-viable-and-effective-a76-program

The Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense asked CNA to make recommendations to improve the A-76 process and to consider the repercussions of changing certain laws governing the conversion of DOD functions to the privatesector. Specifically, CNA was tasked to examine the following issues; what best practices and lessons learned can be gleaned from the legacy A-76 program, what were the deficiencies and challenges of the legacy A-76 program and how can they be addressed in a future program, what actionable, practical, and concrete steps need to be taken to establish an effective A-76 program, and what policy improvements, process enhancements, additional resources, and organizational structures are necessary to ensure the viability and credibility of a reconstituted A-76 public-private competition capability in DOD?

Addressing AI Challenges in Human Machine Teaming

/analyses/2021/10/addressing-ai-challenges-in-human-machine-teaming

Our review of DON strategy documents indicates that DON is paying insufficient attention to the full range of DOTMLPF-P (doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leadership & education, personnel, facilities, and policy) implications that these technologies will have. In particular, more attention needs to be paid to the Manpower, Personnel, Training, and Education (MPT&E) to enable human-machine teaming.

AI and Autonomy in Russia Issue 24

/analyses/2021/10/ai-and-autonomy-in-russia-issue-24

CNA provides information and analysis of the field of civilian and military AI in Russia and how Russia is applying AI to its military capabilities. Issue 24.

Chinas Role in Outer Space Congestion

/analyses/2021/09/chinas-role-in-outer-space-congestion

This paper addresses how China’s rapidly expanding space program challenges U.S. access to space. In 2011, the U.S. National Security Space Strategy described outer space as “congested, contested, and competitive.” As more countries operate in space, the United States has raised concerns over the sustainability of the space environment, the proliferation of space weapons, and its ability to remain commercially competitive in space. One of the most important countries contributing to the congested, contested, and competitive nature of space is China.