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North Korea Asymmetric Advantage in Yellow Sea

/analyses/2021/10/north-korea-asymmetric-advantage-in-yellow-sea

Examining the potential for North Korea to initiate a limited military conflict in the Yellow Sea.

Russian Military Strategy Core Tenets and Concepts

/analyses/2021/10/russian-military-strategy-core-tenets-and-concepts

Exploring the core tenets of Russian military strategy and associated operational concepts, situating its role within the Russian system of knowledge on military security.

USMC Twitter Activity Relating to 2021 Extremism

/analyses/2021/10/usmc-twitter-activity-relating-to-2021-extremism

This short paper captures the results of a recent proof-of-concept analysis that CNA conducted to assess activity within the USMC community that mentioned the issue of extremism. This particular case was tightly focused, however, this type of analysis can easily be scoped to answer a range of important questions. It can center on a community, topic, geographic region, or timeframe. It can be used narrowly to assess how a specific policy is being received (as in the case study outlined below) or broadly to assess the health of an online community (e.g., identifying sources of disinformation). Additionally, while the case below focuses on Twitter, analysis can be conducted on data from a range of social media platforms. The case described below was designed to illustrate the type of analysis that is possible and to demonstrate the value that it can provide to those active on social media.

Field Training Programs in Law Enforcement

/analyses/2021/10/field-training-programs-in-law-enforcement

CNA studied six police officer field training programs around the United States to highlight promising practices and identify areas for improvement.

Chinas Shaping of Information in Mekong Region

/analyses/2021/10/chinas-shaping-of-information-in-mekong-region

This document summarizes a series of five CNA reports on China’s efforts to shape the information environments of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam. For each country, we began by establishing a general understanding of the country’s information environment—the aggregate of individuals, organizations, and systems that play key roles in shaping opinions through the dissemination of news and information—so that we could place China’s efforts into context. Next, we identified key PRC narratives and examined each of the tactics, tools, and techniques that China is employing to promote those narratives to local audiences. Finally, CNA identified issues that affect the reach and resonance of China’s efforts to shape the views of local audiences in each country. This document draws from the five country reports to offer broad observations about how China is attempting to influence what audiences in the region read, hear, and watch.

Informing Renormalization of COVID19

/analyses/2021/10/informing-renormalization-of-covid19

During the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, US jails have faced challenges in providing safety, security, programming, and care while limiting virus transmission. Data-driven insights can help inform correctional leaders as they seek to transition to more normalized operations. We customized an agent-based model, Simulation Applications for Forecasting Effective Responses in Corrections (SAFER-C), to simulate the operations, environment, and virus spread within a representative 100-bed housing unit, using de-identified data from District of Columbia Department of Corrections. Simulations indicated that most infections occur via staff-to-staff and inmate-to-inmate interactions, that benefits from higher facility vaccination rates are offset by the lower vaccination rates among intakes, and that resuming high-contact activities (e.g., basketball) may cause outbreaks. Simulation results aligned closely with practitioner experience. The detailed insights gained from this analysis suggest that SAFER-C is a valuable tool for correctional decision-makers.

Impacts on Field Training Recruitment and Retention

/analyses/2021/10/impacts-on-field-training-recruitment-and-retention

The Center for Justice Research and Innovation led an internally funded initiative at CNA from October 2020 to September 2021 and conducted case studies of six agencies’ Field Training Officer (FTO) programs. During this assessment, CNA examined common practices and policies that law enforcement agencies use within their field training, such as the qualifications an officer must have to become an FTO, and we assessed the quality and effectiveness of communication between trainers and trainees. In this resource, we identify several considerations and recommendations for agencies to develop, implement, and sustain their FTO programs with regards to recruiting FTOs and retaining those who demonstrate the ability to be successful and impactful trainers.

NATO Ally Contributions to the Space Domain

/analyses/2021/10/nato-ally-contributions-to-the-space-domain

The emphasis U.S. NATO allies place on space operations presents multiple avenues for the U.S. and its NATO allies to increase and expand capabilities across a range of military space capabilities.

Russian Approaches to Competition

/analyses/2021/10/russian-approaches-to-competition

Russian strategy is best characterized as offensive, seeking to revise the status quo, resulting in an activist foreign policy. The strategy does not eschew selective engagement in areas of mutual interest, but it is not premised on accommodation, concessions, or acceptance of the current balance of power. Instead, it emphasizes building the military means necessary for direct competition, and using them to enable indirect approaches for pursuing state objectives. Direct means range from conventional and nuclear force modernization, expansion of force structure in the European theater, exercises, brinksmanship, and use of force to attain vital interests. They deter US responses, threaten escalation, and create freedom of maneuver for Russian foreign policy. These are principally ways of compressing the opponent, and focusing on the main theater in the competition, which for Moscow is Europe. Indirect means in turn include military deployments abroad to peripheral theaters, covert action, use of proxies and mercenary groups, political warfare and information confrontation. These instruments are interrelated, with direct approaches, tied closely to military capability or classical forms of deterrence, enabling the indirect approach, which is the principal way by which Moscow pursues political aims. The logic of Russian strategy is that absent the ability to generate strong economic or technological means, Moscow is best served with approaches that reduce US performance by disorganizing its opponent's efforts, reducing cohesion, and employing asymmetric means in the competition.

Maritime Sabotage and Implications for Strategic Competition

/analyses/2021/10/maritime-sabotage-and-implications-for-strategic-competition

Warring sides have undertaken sabotage operations throughout history to generate battlefield effects, with varying degrees of success. In many cases, the forces conducting these operations have been special operations forces, their predecessors, or intelligence agencies. CNA initiated a quick-look study to examine past instances of sabotage in order to derive lessons and best practices for the future conduct of such operations. To increase the utility of the study for US Navy and US Marine Corps organizations, and because of the dearth of prior research on the topic, we focused our efforts on examining sabotage in the maritime domain. We generated a dataset of maritime sabotage instances dating back to World War II and analyzed this dataset according to a set of coding variables. These coding variables allowed us to perform both descriptive analysis of the dataset, as well as exploratory analysis.