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Maritime Sabotage: Lessons Learned and Implications for Strategic Competition

/analyses/2021/10/maritime-sabotage-lessons-learned-and-implications-for-strategic-competition

Warring sides have undertaken sabotage operations throughout history to generate battlefield effects, with varying degrees of success.

North Korea A Case Study of Asymmetric Relations

/analyses/2021/10/north-korea-a-case-study-of-asymmetric-relations

Examining North Korea as a case study for asymmetric relations and the issue of its nuclear weapons development as the threat to status quo in the international order.

Russian Perspectives on Western Military Activities Oct 11

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NATO’s relations with Russia were a dominant topic of discussion in Russian media during the reporting period.

Russian Perspectives on Western Military Activities Oct 1

/analyses/2021/10/russian-perspectives-on-western-military-activities-oct-1

An in-depth analysis of the AUKUS alliance, published in Nezavisimoe Voennoe Obozrenie, argues that the alliance is part of an ongoing US strategy.

North Korea Asymmetric Advantage in Yellow Sea

/analyses/2021/10/north-korea-asymmetric-advantage-in-yellow-sea

Examining the potential for North Korea to initiate a limited military conflict in the Yellow Sea.

Russian Military Strategy Core Tenets and Concepts

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Exploring the core tenets of Russian military strategy and associated operational concepts, situating its role within the Russian system of knowledge on military security.

USMC Twitter Activity Relating to 2021 Extremism

/analyses/2021/10/usmc-twitter-activity-relating-to-2021-extremism

This short paper captures the results of a recent proof-of-concept analysis that CNA conducted to assess activity within the USMC community that mentioned the issue of extremism. This particular case was tightly focused, however, this type of analysis can easily be scoped to answer a range of important questions. It can center on a community, topic, geographic region, or timeframe. It can be used narrowly to assess how a specific policy is being received (as in the case study outlined below) or broadly to assess the health of an online community (e.g., identifying sources of disinformation). Additionally, while the case below focuses on Twitter, analysis can be conducted on data from a range of social media platforms. The case described below was designed to illustrate the type of analysis that is possible and to demonstrate the value that it can provide to those active on social media.

Field Training Programs in Law Enforcement

/analyses/2021/10/field-training-programs-in-law-enforcement

CNA studied six police officer field training programs around the United States to highlight promising practices and identify areas for improvement.

Chinas Shaping of Information in Mekong Region

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This document summarizes a series of five CNA reports on China’s efforts to shape the information environments of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam. For each country, we began by establishing a general understanding of the country’s information environment—the aggregate of individuals, organizations, and systems that play key roles in shaping opinions through the dissemination of news and information—so that we could place China’s efforts into context. Next, we identified key PRC narratives and examined each of the tactics, tools, and techniques that China is employing to promote those narratives to local audiences. Finally, CNA identified issues that affect the reach and resonance of China’s efforts to shape the views of local audiences in each country. This document draws from the five country reports to offer broad observations about how China is attempting to influence what audiences in the region read, hear, and watch.

Informing Renormalization of COVID19

/analyses/2021/10/informing-renormalization-of-covid19

During the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, US jails have faced challenges in providing safety, security, programming, and care while limiting virus transmission. Data-driven insights can help inform correctional leaders as they seek to transition to more normalized operations. We customized an agent-based model, Simulation Applications for Forecasting Effective Responses in Corrections (SAFER-C), to simulate the operations, environment, and virus spread within a representative 100-bed housing unit, using de-identified data from District of Columbia Department of Corrections. Simulations indicated that most infections occur via staff-to-staff and inmate-to-inmate interactions, that benefits from higher facility vaccination rates are offset by the lower vaccination rates among intakes, and that resuming high-contact activities (e.g., basketball) may cause outbreaks. Simulation results aligned closely with practitioner experience. The detailed insights gained from this analysis suggest that SAFER-C is a valuable tool for correctional decision-makers.