Arlington, VA

The analytical organization CNA conducted a congressionally mandated study on maritime strategy for the US Maritime Administration which finds that in a major war, the United States would not have enough assured access to commercial ships to support US military operations. The analysis estimates that the military would need access another 118 commercial tanker ships and 6,400 mariners. To meet needs that go beyond military operations—such as securing critical defense imports or maintaining US exports—would require even more ships and mariners, far more than are currently available.

These are just a few of the findings of the 90-page Independent Study in Support of a National Maritime Strategy: Summary Report. The Maritime Administration (MARAD), part of the US Department of Transportation, contracted CNA in response to the Fiscal Year 2023 National Defense Authorization Act. The act directed the Department of Transportation and Department of Homeland Security to select a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) to conduct an independent study in support of a national maritime strategy. CNA operates an FFRDC that has supported the Department of the Navy for more than 80 years.

The report offers a number of options to increase access to US flag and other ships, domestic shipbuilding infrastructure, and the supply of mariners. These range from a 30-year commercial shipbuilding plan to a new US merchant marine reserve force. MARAD would play a critical role in many of these courses of action.

"For the first time in a long time, we are returning focus to the US merchant marine’s role in ensuring the flow of commerce," said Maritime Administrator Stephen M. Carmel. "While we will continue to ensure our American maritime industry supports our national defense needs, we must not forget the critical role it plays in maintaining a resilient supply chain to move goods to and from markets. This study highlights the American maritime industry’s value to the nation and options to leverage that value for future generations."

For the study, CNA consulted some 75 organizations in government, industry, and labor; conducted quantitative analysis of sealift and shipping needs; and designed and executed two wargames. The wargames, sponsored by both the Joint Staff and MARAD, explored shipbuilding and shipping challenges in wartime. About 100 participants from industry, government, and labor participated in the games across four days.