In The News

Samuel Bendett says, “If it was a Ukrainian drone strike, it demonstrated to the Russian military and the Russian government that Ukraine can strike into the very heart of Russia.”

Samuel Bendett says, “This attack carries massive symbolism since May 9 parade is supposed to still take place on Red Square.”

Dmitry Gorenburg says that throughout the post-Cold War period, Russia's naval focus has been on developing submarines and new capabilities for the underwater vessels, whereas Moscow has largely lost its ability to construct new, large surface vessels.

Michael Kofman says that Ukraine's military "has now expanded significantly, but it's also taken significant losses over the course of the past year."

Michael Kofman says that Wagner has still been working closely with Russia's regular forces, with its ground forces deployed in tandem with Russian air support and artillery.

Samuel Bendett says, “The main point here is that the Ukrainians are continuing to stress Russian naval defenses in Sevastopol. Russians had to invest a lot in physical defenses like multiple layers of netting and buoys.“

Michael Kofman says, “Replenished troops, trained and armed with Western equipment, should have the advantage. “It is difficult to say how much of that force will really be ready. Of course, that depends on the actual timing of this offensive.”

Dmitry Gorenburg says that he suspects it has less to do with security threats and more to do with concerns about unauthorized expressions of grief for those who have died in the current war against Ukraine.

Samuel Bendett says, “The Russian military essentially said we are moving on from this to more important topics and this was really not discussed in length or particular detail even across Russian telegram channels.”

Samuel Bendett says that all this “shows the Russian government's concern that young people may not be willing to be drafted, considering many that left the country at this point, and considering much open-source reporting from the front via social media like Telegram, which shows brutal, WW2-style fighting in Ukraine with heavy casualties.”

Michael Kofman says, “Most elite units are deployed elsewhere along the front.”

Samuel Bendett says that the “Russians are very concerned that Ukrainians have the advantage” when it comes to the FPV drones, worried that a large number will be used to support a Ukrainian counteroffensive, and that Moscow may not have enough pilots or technological know-how to keep up.

Michael Kofman says that supplying Ukraine with enough equipment to hold off a Russian offensive is one thing. It's another for allies to be able to provide enough equipment "to attain a decisive advantage over Russian forces."

Samuel Bendett says, “Ukraine is a unique battle space right now with so many technologies getting tested, getting evaluated, getting used. Both from the military official channels and organically through the help of volunteers and soldiers themselves.”

Michael Kofman says, “Whether these documents are authentic or not, people should take care with anything released by Russian sources.”

Samuel Bendett says, “Essentially, the CUAS [counter-unmanned aerial systems] costs have to be driven down to the most cost-effective and workable solution — which the Ukrainians note is a mobile gun truck capable of taking out Shaheds.”