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Retirement Choice 2016

/analyses/2016/retirement-choice-2016

We find that, for almost all servicemembers, the REDUX retirement plan plus a $30,000 bonus paid at the 15th year of service is a bad choice that significantly reduces their retirement income. The higher the grade, the lower the years of service at retirement, and the longer the servicemember lives, the greater the reduction. Moreover, as each year passes, the difference between REDUX and High-3 retirement income increases.

/reports/2016/DRM-2016-U-012997-Final_Page_01.jpg /reports/2016/salute.jpg Marine Corps and Defense Workforce Program /centers-and-divisions/cna/rfr/marine-corps-and-defense-workforce-program Distribution unlimited; cleared

Cumulative Land Cover Impacts of Proposed Transmission Pipelines in the Delaware River Basin

/analyses/2016/cumulative-land-cover-impacts-of-proposed-transmission-pipelines-in-the-delaware-river-basin

Transmission pipelines function to transport petroleum products over long distances to connect locations where these products are produced or refined to demand centers. The development of Marcellus shale gas with hydraulic fracturing in Pennsylvania has been accompanied by several proposals for new transmission pipelines. At least eight of these proposed transmission pipeline projects will cross the Delaware River Basin (DRB) to bring natural gas produced from the Marcellus shale play to demand centers on the East Coast, or otherwise connect to the larger petroleum products pipeline network. Each proposed interstate pipeline must undergo a review by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), which includes an environmental impact analysis. The potential environmental impacts of pipeline construction include land cover change, deforestation, sedimentation and erosion, water quality degradation, stream degradation, wetland loss, and air emissions, among others. In this report, we investigate the cumulative land cover change impacts for eight proposed transmission pipelines within the DRB, which total 322 miles in length. Specifically, using geographic information systems (GIS) methods, we investigated total land cover change, loss of forest and wetland area, and stream crossings for the eight proposed projects. We found that during construction, the pipelines’ rights-of-way will impact 2,977 acres, including roughly 1,060 acres of forest, and 41 acres of wetlands. The pipelines’ permanent rights-ofway will impact 1,328 acres, including roughly 450 acres of forest, and 22 acres of wetlands. In addition, we identified 175 likely stream crossings where a proposed pipeline route will cross a perennial stream.

of forest and wetland area, and stream crossings for eight proposed projects. This work was funded by the Clean Air Council, which requested that CNA provide an estimate of the land area affected

Improving Lethal Action: Learning and Adapting in U.S. Counterterrorism Operations

/analyses/2014/improving-lethal-action-learning-and-adapting-in-u.s.-counterterrorism-operations

This paper presents a process for the US government to improve the effectiveness of lethal force counterterrorism operations and reduce civilian casualties.

/reports/2014/Improving-Lethal-Action-Learning-and-Adapting-in-US-Counterterrorism-Operations_Cover%20Page.jpg a/4112 Special Activities and Intelligence /centers-and-divisions/cna/ow/special-activities-and-intelligence Cleared for Public Release 74 COP-2014-U-008746-Final Learning

Were the Afghan National Security Forces Successful

/analyses/2014/were-the-afghan-national-security-forces-successful

With all of the recent developments pertaining to a possible bilateral security agreement (BSA) regarding future troop presence and military cooperation between the United States and Afghanistan, another important aspect of the future of Afghanistan has gotten much less attention. The Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) just finished their first year of being fully in the lead for providing security in Afghanistan, with the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in support. With 2013 behind us, it is time to take stock of how the ANSF performed.

/centers-and-divisions/cna/rsp/countering-threats-and-challenges This occasional paper is cleared for public release, distribution unlimited.  20 DOP-2014-U-006817-final Catherine Norman Jerry Meyerle

The First War on Terror

/analyses/2014/the-first-war-on-terror

This paper examines the forgotten history of counterterrorism in the United States during the 1970s and early 1980s. That period was part of a long wave of terrorism that occurred across the developed world. Within the United States during that period, terrorist groups—including ethno-nationalists, separatists, and Marxist- Leninists—conducted a remarkable number of attacks, some of which resulted in significant injuries and deaths. Many of the policies, strategies, and structures designed to combat domestic terrorism during the 1970-1985 period remain part of the U.S. counterterrorism repertoire. By providing historical perspective, this paper will help today’s policymakers understand issues of change and continuity in the terrorist threat; weigh alternative approaches to countering terrorist challenges; and evaluate tradeoffs between public safety and civil liberties.

/reports/2014/war%20on%20terror.jpg Countering Threats and Challenges /centers-and-divisions/cna/rsp/countering-threats-and-challenges Distribution unlimited. 48 CRM-2014-U-008836

Risky Business

/analyses/2014/risky-business

Since 9/11, the United States has invested billions of dollars in training and equipping foreign security forces to fight terrorist and insurgent groups abroad. Despite considerable effort and expense (including thousands of U.S. lives lost), raising military and police forces in places such as Afghanistan, Iraq, and Mali has yielded decidedly lackluster results. As a result, there is growing recognition that the application of traditional security sector reform efforts to combat asymmetric threats such as terrorist groups in fragile or failed states is proving to be slow, cumbersome, and in some instances counterproductive. Moreover, in an era of shrinking defense budgets, a purely top-down, state-centric approach has become too costly and politically contentious to sustain on a large scale.

/reports/2014/crm-2014-u-008881%20%281%29.pdf /reports/2014/crm-2014-u-008881%20%281%29_Page_001.jpg /reports/2014/risky%20business.jpg Countering Threats and Challenges /centers-and-divisions/cna/rsp

China versus Vietnam

/analyses/2014/china-versus-vietnam

This legal analysis was commissioned as part of a project entitled, “U.S. policy options in the South China Sea.” The objective in asking experienced U.S international lawyers, such as Captain Raul “Pete” Pedrozo, USN, Judge Advocate Corps (ret.), the author of this analysis, is to provide U.S. policy makers access to work that tests the various legal arguments that the respective claimants make in support of their claims, and weigh them against the relatively limited body of international case law associated with maritime disputes of this sort. Importantly, this analysis of Vietnamese claims versus Chinese claims to the Paracel and Spratly archipelagoes was not undertaken as a prelude to a recommendation that the United States depart from its long held position of not taking a position on competing sovereignty claims in the South China Sea. That is not the intent, nor is it one of the recommendations of the project.

/centers-and-divisions/cna/rsp/china-studies Distribution unlimited. Specific authority contracting number: E13PC00009. 142 IOP-2014-U-008433

Enlisted Career Paths for Top Snipes

/analyses/2014/enlisted-career-paths-for-top-snipes

The Navy consistently strives to achieve the goal of providing highly trained and qualified sailors to the fleet to fulfill missions. Often these sailors are expected to possess critical technical skills in numerous positions and expertise to mentor junior sailors. Commander, Naval Surface Forces (COMNAVSURFOR), recently noted proficiency problems with sailors in senior positions at sea. This observation led to a message that set development and career management of sailors as a top priority. The proposed solution is to create a career path that gives sailors meaningful experience at sea, reinforced by knowledge-enriching shore tours—a clear statement that simply earning an NEC through a training course is not adequate to be proficient at these key senior positions at sea. A new standard relies on giving sailors experience throughout their careers to prepare them for these key senior positions at sea. The Navy remains confident in the capabilities of the sailors selected for these key senior positions at sea. At the heart of the proficiency issue is lack of opportunities through consistent experience, not competency of sailors.

Resources /centers-and-divisions/cna/rfr/navy-health-and-human-resources Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited. Specific authority: N00014-11-D-0323. 58 DRM-2014-U-007699-Final David L

The Quality Volume Relationship: Comparing Civilian and MHS Practice

/analyses/2014/the-quality-volume-relationship-comparing-civilian-and-mhs-practice

The literature shows that the best outcomes occur when patients get their health care in high-volume settings. High-volume surgeons are more proficient. High volume hospitals are safer. These findings have changed how civilian health care is delivered. Civilian hospitals, insurance companies, governments, and institutions all focus on volume as an indicator of quality. The Military Health System (MHS) lags by comparison. Fewer MHS patients have their procedures in high-volume settings. MHS also misses opportunities to consolidate low-volume hospitals into higher-volume regional facilities. For many product lines, most operations are done by surgeons who perform the procedure infrequently. There are nearly 10 million TRICARE beneficiaries, and thus ample opportunities for MHS to set up high-volume "center of excellence" programs to meet existing beneficiary demand for services. Such initiatives could improve average patient outcomes while supporting clinical currency for MHS physicians.

/centers-and-divisions/cna/rfr/health-analytics-and-medical-readiness Approval for Public Release. Distribution Unlimited. Specific authority: N00014-11-D-0323. 58 DIM-2014-U-009221-Final Ted Jaditz

Malaysia and Brunei Claims in SCS

/analyses/2014/malaysia-and-brunei-claims-in-scs

This is the second of three legal analyses commissioned as part of a project entitled, “U.S. Policy Options in the South China Sea.” The objective in asking experienced U.S international lawyers, such as Captain J. Ashley Roach, Judge Advocate General’s Corps, USN (ret.), the author of this analysis, is to provide U.S. policy makers access to work that tests the legal arguments that Vietnam, China, Malaysia and Brunei and the Philippines make in support of their claims, weigh them against the body of international case law associated with maritime disputes of this sort, and if possible, reach a judgment on which country’s claim is superior.

/centers-and-divisions/cna/rsp/indo-pacific-security-affairs Distribution unlimited. Specific authority contracting number: E13PC00009 54 IOP-2014-U-008434