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Artificial Intelligence in Russia Issue 18

/analyses/2021/01/artificial-intelligence-in-russia-issue-18

This report, the eighteenth in a series of biweekly updates, is part of an effort by CNA to provide timely, accurate, and relevant information and analysis of the field of civilian and military artificial intelligence (AI) in Russia and, in particular, how Russia is applying AI to its military capabilities. It relies on Russian-language open source material.

Developments International Collaboration Article: General Staff Journal Discusses Military AI, AI in Nuclear Weapons Spotlight: S-500 Prometey The following preview shows the first item

Not-Just-Money

/analyses/2018/08/not-just-money

Russian military journalist Alexei Nikolsky analyzes the macroeconomic conditions and budgetary constraints that affect Russia's military.

genuine military necessity. The government is imposing increasingly more onerous budget management requirements on the defense sector, leaving R&D—including cutting-edge weapons programs—especially ... these structural limitations, the Russian nuclear deterrent—viewed as the cornerstone of the Russian defense capability—is not facing a shortage of funds or any other significant constraints. This report

Can Kim Jong Un Really Denuclearize?

/our-media/indepth/2019/04/can-kim-jong-un-realy-denuclearize

A fundamental question facing U.S. policymakers is whether North Korea intends to denuclearize. Most Pyongyang-watchers believe this is an impossibility, at least for the near term.

of the munitions industry are sending thousands of petitions to our supreme leadership not to abandon nuclear weapons at any cost." The notion, therefore, that Kim could act with impunity ... , the wider population. Only then could Kim foresee a future where he is celebrated as the father of economic reform, rather than tolerated as a third-generation despot with nuclear weapons. This article ... Pyongyang-watchers believe this is an impossibility, at least for the near term. The nuclear program has been a dream of North Korean leaders since the end of the Korean War — a deterrent against regime

North Korea's Strategic Surprise in the Yellow Sea: A Future Scenario

/our-media/indepth/2022/01/north-koreas-strategic-surprise-in-the-yellow-sea

Markus Garlauskas presents a fictional future Yellow Sea conflict scenario, following the consequences of a surprise attack by North Korea against South Korea.

with President Trump. Dismissed as mere “short range” missiles, the tests did not attract the international attention and additional sanctions that intercontinental ballistic missiles or nuclear weapons had—so ... Korea's continued weapons development alongside the rising assertiveness of the People's Republic of China (PRC). [Excerpts from “Chapter 15: A Mortal Wound,” The History of the United ... now know the premediated attack was a calculated risk. Pyongyang gambled that it had chosen the right time and place to surprise its more powerful adversaries with new weapons. Pyongyang also bet big

Ukraine’s Ripple Effect on Russia’s Indo-Pacific Horizon

/our-media/indepth/2023/01/ukraines-ripple-effect-on-russias-indo-pacific-horizon

Elizabeth Wishnick examines how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has impacted the country’s economic and strategic prospects with the Asia-Pacific states.

Yoon Suk Yeol to state that his country was considering asking the U.S. to redeploy nuclear weapons in South Korea and even building a domestic capability. Ukraine’s long shadow Russian aspirations ... . While Xi has spoken out against nuclear threats  in the context of the ongoing war on Ukraine, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been more overtly critical of Russian actions, urging ... weapons from Russia, its longtime partner, is now considering other options for some systems. In the past year, the Indo-Pacific has seen a tightening of security relationships, putting many

Wrong War, Right Weapons: Lessons for the Next Conflict

/our-media/indepth/2021/02/wrong-war-right-weapons

Precision-guided munitions contributed to Desert Storm’s sweeping success, but were developed for an adversary and battlefield nothing like the one faced in the Persian Gulf.

Wrong War, Right Weapons Precision-guided munitions contributed to Desert Storm’s sweeping success, but were developed for an adversary and battlefield nothing like the one faced in the Persian Gulf. /images/InDepth/Post76.jpg Wrong War, Right Weapons: Lessons for the Next Conflict 76 Larry Lewis and Don Boroughs Larry Lewis is the Vice President and Director of the Center for Autonomy ... networks, were pivotal technological developments that contributed to Desert Storm’s sweeping success. Ironically, these weapons and systems were developed for an adversary and battlefield nothing like

Russia and China Respond—or Don’t—to the 12-Day War in Iran

/our-media/indepth/2025/07/russia-and-china-respond-to-the-12-day-war-in-iran

Despite the strategic partnerships both Russia and China have with Iran, they’ve supported Tehran with words since the Israel and US attacks, but little else.

for the US” and alluded to the idea that other countries might even supply Iran with nuclear weapons. Medvedev was then directly castigated by President Trump, who reminded him that Putin was the “THE BOSS ... . The Israel-Iran war that broke out on June 13 and US strikes on suspected Iranian nuclear sites on June 21 provide an opportunity to examine how Russia and China respond to a military crisis in Iran. Six ... that it “decisively condemns” the US and Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, characterizing them as an “irresponsible decision to subject the territory of a sovereign state to missile

Kaliningrad: Impregnable Fortress or “Russian Alamo”?

/our-media/indepth/2023/05/kaliningrad-impregnable-fortress-or-russian-alamo

Steve Wills examines the Russian Port City of Kaliningrad, its significance to the Russian Federation and how Finland’s acceptance into NATO has increased its isolation.

of the Baltic Fleet, and nuclear weapons. What then is Kaliningrad? A great Russian anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) fortress threatening safe transit of the Baltic Sea and the vulnerable Baltic States ... to upgrade its ground forces with new mechanized units that could threaten Kaliningrad in return. NATO has long believed that Kaliningrad has been a deployment location for Russian nuclear weapons ... well-armed, is still surrounded by NATO territory much as West Berlin was encircled by Soviet forces during the Cold War. Yet the specter of Russia’s use of nuclear weapons in defense of Kaliningrad

cna talks: Nuclear Posture Review

/our-media/podcasts/cna-talks/2018/nuclear-posture-review

CNA analyst Vince Manzo and special guest Elaine Bunn take a deep dive into the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), released in early February of 2018. They discuss the purpose of the NPR, what makes it unique to previous directives, the strategic challenges that this NPR addresses, the ongoing debate over cost, tradeoffs and strategic value, and more.

Nuclear Posture Review CNA analyst Vince Manzo and special guest Elaine Bunn take a deep dive into the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), released in early February of 2018. They discuss the purpose of the NPR, what makes it unique to previous directives, the strategic challenges that this NPR addresses, the ongoing debate over cost, tradeoffs and strategic value, and more. Nuclear Posture Review Biographies Vincent Manzo   is an expert in nuclear weapons policy. His research portfolio includes deterrence, extended deterrence, escalation management, strategic stability, and arms control

Private Sector Sanctions on Russia

/our-media/indepth/2022/03/private-sector-sanctions-on-russia

John Milton examines how the withdrawal of American corporations from Russia in the wake of the war in Ukraine demonstrates a new form of geopolitical pressure.

example, the sanctions targeting Iran and North Korea to pressure their governments to give up their nuclear weapons programs. In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. is continuing ... veiled aggression has minimalized the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO) options, with vague threats of a nuclear response to any outside intervention. While kinetic warfare seems to be off ... intervention has repeatedly been used as a powerful deterrent to global aggression. However, Putin's aggression against a nation outside of NATO's mutual defense pact and his threat to use nuclear