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ai with ai: Keep Talking and No Robot Explodes, Part I

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Dr. Larry Lewis, the Director of CNA’s Center for Autonomy and Artificial Intelligence, joins Andy and Dave to provide a summary of the recent United Nations Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons meeting in Geneva on Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems. Larry discusses the different viewpoints of the attendees, and walks through the draft document that the group published on “Emerging Commonalities, Conclusions, and Recommendations.” The topics include: Possible Guiding Principles; characterization to promote a common understanding; human elements and human-machine interactions in LAWS; review of related technologies; possible options; and recommendations (SPOILER ALERT: the group recommends 10 days of discussion for 2019).

1-48 Dr. Larry Lewis, the Director of CNA’s Center for Autonomy and Artificial Intelligence, joins Andy and Dave to provide a summary of the recent United Nations Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons meeting in Geneva on Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems. Larry discusses the different viewpoints of the attendees, and walks through the draft document that the group published on “Emerging ... for Autonomy and AI blog : CNA Statement to UN Group of Government Experts on Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems, August 29 2018, Larry Lewis CNA report:   AI and Autonomy in War: Understanding

Center for Enterprise Systems Modernization

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Building highly skilled teams to deliver transformative technology solutions and strategies tailored to our clients' challenges and operations.

/connecting-faa-data-to-emergency-management /quick-looks/2022/our-leadership-on-cybersecurity-and-featured-projects CNA Looks to the Future of UAS Cybersecurity https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ilJ6q9Gduc video white 3 Explore more

Decades of War Applying Past Lessons to the Counter-ISIS Campaign

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To counter ISIS more effectively, the US can apply lessons learned from earlier operations in Iraq, as summarized in the Joint Staff’s “Decade of War Report.”

/reports/2017/Decade-of-War-Applying-Past-Lessons-to-the-Counter-ISIS-campaign_Page_01.jpg /images/GenericReportImage.jpg Special Activities and Intelligence /centers-and-divisions/cna/ow

Get Ready for the Second Phase of the Chinese Military

/analyses/2017/get-ready-for-the-second-phase-of-the-chinese-military

2017 will see the Chinese armed forces undergo the second phase of organizational changes and institutional reforms that the PLA hopes to complete by 2020.

/reports/2017/dop-2017-u-014677-final.pdf /reports/2017/dop-2017-u-014677-final_Page_01.jpg /images/GenericReportImage.jpg China Studies /centers-and-divisions/cna/rsp/china-studies Approved for public release: distribution unlimited

Origins and Development of Cooperative Strategy

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On August 2, 2011, Admiral (ADM) Jonathan Greenert was confirmed to succeed ADM Gary Roughead as the U.S. Navy’s 30th Chief of Naval Operations (CNO), to take office the following month. Like his 29 predecessors, ADM Greenert faced issues of Navy readiness, personnel, acquisition, and resources. He was also troubled by the content and effect of the Navy’s existing strategy document, A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower (CS21), published by all three U.S. sea services back in October 2007.

/reports/2017/DRM-2015-U-012011-2Rev_Page_001.jpg /reports/2017/sunset.jpg Strategy and Policy Analysis /centers-and-divisions/cna/rsp/strategy-and-policy-analysis DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved

United States and Gulf State Interests in the Post Arab Spring Maghreb

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The 2010-2011 Arab Spring caused upheaval in North Africa’s Maghreb region, which comprises Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya. This upheaval elevated the Maghreb’s importance globally, including for the United States and the Gulf Arab states—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar in particular. The Gulf Arab countries’ increased engagement in the Maghreb is the result of shifts within the internal politics of the Arab world. In the Maghreb, U.S. and Gulf state interests overlap to the extent that all players want stability, but each state has its own definition of what stability means. The U.S. and the Gulf states all support the Moroccan and Algerian regimes, but intra-Gulf rivalries are helping destabilize Libya, where different Gulf- backed proxy forces are exacerbating that country’s civil war. Moving forward, the United States and the Gulf states may find areas where their interests converge (e.g., stabilizing Tunisian politics, fighting terrorism, and promoting development) but also areas where they diverge, especially in Libya.

/reports/2017/flag%20arrange.jpg Countering Threats and Challenges /centers-and-divisions/cna/rsp/countering-threats-and-challenges DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution

Sources of Resilience in the Lords Resistance Army

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The Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), led by Ugandan national Joseph Kony, has survived for over three decades despite a concerted effort to defeat it. The LRA was formed in the late 1980s in response to the historic marginalization of the Acholi people, inequitable treatment by the Ugandan government and uneven development across the country. The LRA became a powerfully destructive force in northern Uganda, with thousands of combatants killing over 100,000 people. Since 2006, the group has been largely degraded to less than 150 core combatants, and is currently in survival mode on the borders of the Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, and South Sudan. Despite these setbacks, the LRA is still active in central Africa and serves as a lesson in resiliency and survival. In March 2017, U.S. Africa Command announced the end of its anti-LRA operations. Although some observers see the operation as a success, it failed to capture Kony or to eliminate the group. This paper argues that the LRA has two major sources of resilience: it positions itself within the nexus of four interconnected conflicts in the region, and it adapts its tactics to changes in its capabilities and environment. The resilience of the LRA has implications both for its potential resurgence and for other armed groups who may look to it as a template for survival.

.pdf /reports/2017/dop-2017-u-015265-final_Page_01.jpg /reports/2017/lords%20army.jpg Countering Threats and Challenges /centers-and-divisions/cna/rsp/countering-threats-and-challenges DISTRIBUTION

Transnational Challenges and US National Security

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By their very nature, transnational challenges are murky and often intermingled, and thus are difficult to analyze. This report provides an introductory examination to these challenges in an effort to build understanding around what they are and why they matter to current U.S. national security. Through our research, we derived a definition for transnational challenges and then used that definition to identify 11 such challenges that impact U.S. national security interests today. We observe trends and patterns among these challenges, including how they relate to one another and how they may evolve over time. We end with thoughts on which transnational challenges the United States should focus on, and why.

/reports/2017/dop-2017-u-016251-1rev_Page_01.jpg /reports/2017/je%20suis.jpg Countering Threats and Challenges /centers-and-divisions/cna/rsp/countering-threats-and-challenges DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release

The Role of Special Operations Forces in Global Competition

/analyses/2017/the-role-of-special-operations-forces-in-global-competition

Nations have a variety of options for exerting influence, such as through diplomatic, military, or economic means. In recent years, some nations have shifted to more ambiguous activities for exerting global influence, in attempts to achieve benefits normally obtained through conventional war, but without triggering such a war. In this report, we explored a different way of thinking about these ambiguous activities and their implications, which suggested a need to shift U.S. focus away from preparing to win tomorrow and toward winning today. From this shift, we described a different approach to U.S. activities in such competitive environments. We also identified the unique qualities of U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF) as the military force having the best alignment with these different activities.

%20standing.jpg Countering Threats and Challenges /centers-and-divisions/cna/rsp/countering-threats-and-challenges Approved for public release: distribution unlimited. 58 DRM-2017-U-015225-1Rev

Navy Manpower Planning

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We have tried to provide an overview of Navy manpower planning. We hope we have also conveyed the complexity of Navy MPT&E, and that there are few simple answers to the many issues facing Navy MPT&E managers. Good management decisions can be and are being routinely made. Such decisions, however, nearly always require flexibility and a broad perspective regarding their immediate and secondary/unanticipated consequences. We have focused on active duty Navy personnel. The Reserves, civil servants, and contractors also make important contributions to the running of the Navy, but they are secondary to our active duty military personnel. Hence, they are omitted from this monograph to provide a more sharply focused document.

/reports/2017/ranks.jpg Navy Human Resources /centers-and-divisions/cna/rfr/navy-health-and-human-resources DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited. 2/28/2017