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AI and Autonomy Opportunities and Challenges

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The military is on the cusp of a major technological revolution, in which warfare is conducted by unmanned and increasingly autonomous weapon systems. This exploratory study considers the state-of-the-art of artificial intelligence (AI), machine- learning, and robot technologies, and their potential future military implications for autonomous (and semi-autonomous) weapon systems. Although no one can predict how AI will evolve or how it will affect the development of military autonomous systems, we can anticipate many of the conceptual, technical, and operational challenges that DOD will face as it increasingly turns to AI-based technologies. We identified four key gaps facing DOD as the military evolves toward an “autonomy era”: (1) a mismatch of timescales between the pace of commercial innovation and DOD’s acquisition process; (2) an underappreciation of the fundamental unpredictability of autonomous systems; (3) a lack of a universally agreed upon conceptual framework for autonomy; and (4) a disconnect between the design of autonomous systems and CONOPS development. We examine these gaps, provide a roadmap of opportunities and challenges, and identify areas of future studies.

examine these gaps, provide a roadmap of opportunities and challenges, and identify areas of future studies. The history of warfare, in general, and the evolution of weapons, in particular, are both ... deeper connection between the development of technology and weapons systems has been forged by national offset strategies. An offset strategy is a general set of peacetime policies designed to mitigate ... status” with respect to nuclear weapon technology and delivery systems, strategic thinking turned to regaining a non-nuclear tactical advantage. Rapidly growing innovations in digital

intersections: Issue 3, March 2023

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Intersections, Issue 3, CNA news digest of China’s efforts to acquire Western technology, U.S. and partner efforts to protect technology for national security.

and manufacturing of space launch and ballistic missile systems. US chips used in PRC nuclear weapons research, despite export controls. According to a January 2023 article in The Wall Street Journal ... nuclear weapons research institute and notes that CAEP was placed on the US Entity List in 1997. The article states that the types of chips procured by CAEP are difficult for the PRC to mass-produce

Insights for the Third Offset

/analyses/2017/insights-for-the-third-offset

CNA conducts analysis for the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense (DOD), and other sponsors, ranging across policy, strategy, organizational processes, technical performance of military systems, and current operations. Because of the expected impact of autonomy and artificial intelligence (AI) to the character of warfare, CNA has created a Center for Autonomy and Artificial Intelligence to focus on these emerging technologies and their significant role in U.S. defense policy and all the military services. The Center combines CNA’s strengths and experience in conducting objective analysis of U.S. military operations with focused expertise in autonomy and other aspects of AI. This report, the first created by the new Center, takes lessons and insights from CNA’s body of work for the Navy and the joint force, including CNA’s field program of embedded analysts in military commands around the world. Though much of the emerging technology examined in this report is new, the approach of applying lessons from U.S. operations and institutional processes to key challenges in leveraging autonomy and AI continues CNA’S applied research paradigm of exploring many opportunities to resolve or work around challenges that have been seen before. The aim of this report is to anticipate challenges of “Third Offset” implementation based on past lessons, and then provide concrete recommendations for promoting the effective incorporation of autonomy, AI, and related technologies in U.S. military operations. This report discusses making autonomy and AI militarily effective from an acquisition and technology perspective, and how to pursue these capabilities in ways that are consistent with long-standing U.S. values and that promote broader U.S. national interests.

has led to fundamental changes in the character of war and the tools used in its conduct. Examples include the development of the crossbow; gunpowder-powered projectile weapons; chemical weapons in World War I; rockets, jet aircraft, and nuclear warheads in World War II; and stealth, unmanned vehicles, and precision-guided munitions in recent decades. Military operations are poised ... on such weapons, citing concerns about civilian casualties, the difficulties of machines complying with international humanitarian law (IHL), and other ethical considerations. Likewise, U.S. operators

intersections: Issue 8, February 2024

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Intersections, Issue 8, CNA news digest of China’s efforts to acquire Western technology, U.S. and partner efforts to protect technology for national security.

to be seen as independent from its traditional US, UK, and Australian partners. New Zealand banned nuclear weapons and nuclear-powered vessels from its territory in the mid-1980s in solidarity with Pacific Islands nations subjected to nuclear tests in the region and in compliance with the Treaty of Rarotonga. New Zealand's policy effectively barred US Navy vessels from New Zealand's ports and led ... (see box below) since March 2023, including the following: The graduation of the first class of Royal Australian Navy officers from the US Nuclear Power School The first group of Australian

ai and autonomy in russia: Issue 40, June 15, 2022

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defense manufacturers were running out of key microchip and semiconductor components, forcing the extraction of strictly civilian microelectronics products for use in different weapons systems ... organizations, transport, telecommunications, banking, nuclear energy, fuel and energy complex, healthcare, science, metallurgy, defense, rocket and space and chemical industries, and other key sectors ... ”, Wikipedia Commons, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_S-70_Okhotnik-B . Okhotnik UCAV is getting additional weapons and testing When it was publicly flown with a Su-57 aircraft back in 2019

pla update: Issue 12, July 17, 2023

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PLA Update, Issue 12, is a CNA China Studies Program monthly newsletter, with summaries of Chinese media coverage of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

that included firing the ship's main and auxiliary guns and shooting light weapons in simulated counterterrorism and counterpiracy scenarios. The port visits in Southeast Asian countries included ... face nuclear coercion from one or more powers. The article claimed that the NMS's portrayal of armed conflict aligns with the NSS and NDS and that this line of thinking would guide US military force ... that the US military believed the effectiveness of deterrence in an era of great power confrontation depended on a reliable and effective nuclear deterrent. The article said it was noteworthy that near

russian media analysis: Issue 11, March 11, 2022

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Russian Perspectives on Western Military Activities

of Belarusian and Ukrainian nuclear weapons. In   Gazeta.ru , Irina Al'shaeva writes about the “special combat duty regime” requested by Russia's president Vladimir Putin for the Russian strategic forces ... that it underestimated Russian power and resolve and is looking to salvage its position. 5. Invasion of Ukraine: Nuclear Issues Several articles discuss nuclear issues. An article in   Topwar.ru

North Korea Asymmetric Advantage in Yellow Sea

/analyses/2021/10/north-korea-asymmetric-advantage-in-yellow-sea

Examining the potential for North Korea to initiate a limited military conflict in the Yellow Sea.

, gambling that it had chosen the right time and place to turn the tables on its more powerful adversaries with a surprise strike using new advanced weapons. The skirmishes at sea began the next day ... in North Korea to disrupt the attack and punish Pyongyang’s aggression without initiating all-out war—or triggering nuclear retaliation. Despite South Korea’s far superior intelligence capabilities ... the peninsula to nuclear war. While the allies were calibrating their military actions to forestall the risk of nuclear retaliation from North Korea, Beijing moved to intervene. Chinese officials

Gordon Jaquith

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and director of the Systems, Tactics, and Force Development division, where he leads a team of some 65 analysts who conduct quantitative analyses of weapons, sensors, networks, systems, and the tactics ... , spanning the nuclear enterprise, missile and homeland defense, and advanced technology. Previously, he directed the Naval Forces Division at CAPE and was responsible for investment and warfighting assessments of submarines, surface ships, naval aircraft, weapons, and other platforms, particularly during the annual program and budget review process. While in OSD, Jaquith received the Secretary

ai and autonomy in russia: Issue 39, May 30, 2022

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launched recently to introduce weapons with elements of artificial intelligence into the Russian military—showcased its achievements in neural networks development. In issue 37 of AI and Autonomy ... a master's or doctoral degree in science or technology such as artificial intelligence, nuclear engineering, and quantum physics. They will have to pass an aptitude test. There are no limits on the number ... equipment, military products (including weapons), software, and oil-refining equipment. In addition, Japan froze the assets of Otkritie Bank, Novikombank, Sovcombank, VTB, Rossiya Bank, Promsvyazbank