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cna talks: Moscow Conference on International Security

/our-media/podcasts/cna-talks/2018/moscow-conference-on-international-security

Russia experts  Michael Kofman  and  Jeffrey Edmonds  share their experience attending the Moscow Conference on International Security in April 2018. They discuss the importance of understanding how Russian defense ministers view Russia’s relationships with the U.S., E.U., Syria, and China, and the general tone of structural confrontation demonstrated at the conference. Attending the conference allowed them to see first-hand that these officials have a fundamentally different understanding of reality than their American counterparts.

. They discuss the importance of understanding how Russian defense ministers view Russia’s relationships with the U.S., E.U., Syria, and China, and the general tone of structural confrontation demonstrated ... , specializing in defense and military analysis. Kofman has advised senior military and government officials on Russia, Eurasia and Pakistan and represented the Department of Defense on numerous occasions before ... and acting Senior Director for Russia during the 2017 presidential transition. His research at CNA focuses on the Russian military, foreign policy, Russian threat perceptions, and Russian information

cna talks: Red Robots

/our-media/podcasts/cna-talks/2017/red-robots

Artificial Intelligence and unmanned systems are rapidly changing the dynamics of warfighting and military power. With Russia, China, and other nations investing in and testing these capabilities, the United States has to understand what capabilities other countries have and how their governments could seek to use them. On this episode of CNA Talks, experts Larry Lewis, Samuel Bendett, and Kevin Pollpeter discuss unmanned military systems, how Russia and China are developing and employing their capabilities, and what the United States should do in response.

of the Russia Studies Program. His work involves Russian defense and security technology and developments, Russian geopolitical influence in the former Soviet states, as well as Russian unmanned systems ... on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC) project on the Study of Innovation and Technology in China, deputy director of the East Asia Program at Defense Group Inc., and a researcher at RAND. A Chinese linguist, he holds an MA in international policy studies from the Monterey Institute of International Studies and is currently enrolled in a Ph.D. program at King’s College London. ContactName

ai with ai: The Kwicker Man

/our-media/podcasts/ai-with-ai/season-6/6-4

Andy and Dave discuss the latest in AI news and research, including the release of the US National Defense Authorization Act for FY2023, which includes over 200 mentions of “AI” and many more requirements for the Department of Defense. DoD has also awarded its cloud-computing contracts, not to one company, but four – Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Oracle. At the end of November, the San Francisco Board voted to allow the police force to use robots to administer deadly force, however, after a nearly immediate response from a “No Killer Robots” campaign, in early December the board passed a revised version of the policy that prohibits police from using robots to kill people. Israeli company Elbit unveils its LANIUS drone, a “drone-based loitering munition” that can carry lethal or non-lethal payloads, and appears to have many functions similar to the ‘slaughter bots,’ except for autonomous targeting. Neuralink shows the latest updates on its research for putting a brain chip interface into humans, with demonstrations of a monkey manipulating a mouse cursor with its thoughts; the company also faces a federal investigation into possible animal-welfare violations. DeepMind publishes AlphaCode in Science, a story that we covered back in February. DeepMind also introduces DeepNash, an autonomous agent that can play Stratego. OpenAI unleashes ChatGPT, a spin-off of GPT-3 optimized for answering questions through back-and-forth dialogue. Meanwhile, Stack Overflow, a website for programmers, temporarily banned users from sharing responses generated by ChatGPT, because the output of the algorithm might look good, but it has “a high rate of being incorrect.” Researchers at the Weizmann Institute of Science demonstrate that, with a simple neural network, it is possible to reconstruct a “large portion” of the actual training samples. NOMIC provides an interactive map to explore over 6M images from Stable Diffusion.  Steve Coulson creates “AI-assisted comics” using Midjourney. Stay tuned for AI Debate 3 on 23 December 2022. And the video of the week from Ricard Sole at the Santa Fe Institute explores mapping the cognition space of liquid and solid brains.

Andy and Dave discuss the latest in AI news and research, including the release of the US National Defense Authorization Act for FY2023, which includes over 200 mentions of “AI” and many more requirements for the Department of Defense. DoD has also awarded its cloud-computing contracts, not to one company, but four – Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Oracle. At the end of November, the San ... a revised version of the policy that prohibits police from using robots to kill people. Israeli company Elbit unveils its LANIUS drone, a “drone-based loitering munition” that can carry lethal

ai with ai: Terminator or Data? Policy and Safety for Autonomous Weapons

/our-media/podcasts/ai-with-ai/season-1/1-39

This week Andy and Dave take a respite from the world of AI. In the meantime, Larry Lewis hosts Shawn Steene from the Office of Secretary of Defense. Shawn manages DOD Directive 3000.09 – US military policy on autonomous weapons – and is a member of the US delegation to the UN’s CCW meetings on Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS). Shawn and Larry discuss U.S. policy, what DOD Directive 3000.09 actually means, and how the future of AI could more closely resemble the android data than SKYNET from the Terminator movies. That leads to a discussion of some common misconceptions about artificial intelligence and autonomy in military applications, and how these misconceptions can manifest themselves in the UN talks. With data having single-handedly saved the day in the eighth and tenth Star Trek movies (First Contact and Nemesis, respectively), perhaps Star Trek should be required viewing for the next UN meeting in Geneva. Larry Lewis  is the Director of the  Center for Autonomy and Artificial Intelligence  at CNA. His areas of expertise include lethal autonomy, reducing civilian casualties, identifying lessons from current operations, security assistance, and counterterrorism.

1-39 This week Andy and Dave take a respite from the world of AI. In the meantime, Larry Lewis hosts Shawn Steene from the Office of Secretary of Defense. Shawn manages DOD Directive 3000.09 – US military policy on autonomous weapons – and is a member of the US delegation to the UN’s CCW meetings on Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS). Shawn and Larry discuss U.S. policy, what DOD Directive ... , and counterterrorism. /images/AI-Posters/AI_1_39.jpg Terminator or Data? Policy and Safety for Autonomous Weapons ContactName /*/Contact/ContactName ContactTitle /*/Contact/JobTitle ContactEmail

Arctic Foreign Direct Investment

/centers-and-divisions/cna/sppp/strategy-and-policy-analysis/arctic-fdi

CNA studies show that China’s investments and other activities in the Arctic pose an economic challenge to the United States and other Arctic interests.

/CIP-FDIbanner.jpg Arctic Foreign Direct Investment Slideshow white Explore More Arctic Foreign Direct Investment Contacts Dr. Joshua Tallis Project Director, Strategy and Policy Analysis Program tallisj@cna.org ... white Policymakers in the US and other Arctic nations are increasingly aware that China uses economic statecraft as a key instrument of Beijing’s foreign policy. In the Arctic, China does not yet ... Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Arctic. The Department of Defense selected CNA, and asked its analysts to explore these questions: What is the nature and scope of current FDI

One Year of War in Ukraine

/our-media/indepth/2023/02/one-year-of-war-in-ukraine

With the War in Ukraine entering its second year, Dmitry Gorenburg looks back at the scale of Russia’s failure to achieve its military objectives.

were to have a firm say over Ukraine’s foreign policy and internal governance, block further NATO expansion and weaken the West, and end Ukrainian defense cooperation with NATO members. Russia’s

How China Might Use High-Altitude Balloons in Wartime

/our-media/indepth/2023/02/how-china-might-use-high-altitude-balloons-in-wartime

Kevin Pollpeter examines how China could utilize high-altitude balloons in a conflict scenario including reconnaissance and for offensive operations.

a massive expansion of its nuclear force and could have as many as 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035. This has generated concern that it may be considering a more offensively oriented nuclear policy ... for the defense of the Japanese islands at a time when they were needed in the South Pacific. Swarm tactics may also have their peacetime uses. China could use balloon flights in U.S. airspace

Xi Jinping’s Vision of a Resilient China

/our-media/indepth/2023/01/xi-jinpings-vision-of-a-resilient-china

Elizabeth Wishnick examines President Xi Jinping’s rhetoric regarding China’s national challenges including COVID-19, and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

understanding of the interconnection between domestic and foreign policy risks. The centrality of “holistic” national security was one of the novel features of his address to the 20th CCP Congress ... storms.” While his security concept involves some components of what the U . S . would include in such a definition, such as developing defense capabilities, political security — what we would call

Implications of the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan

/our-media/indepth/2021/10/implications-of-us-withdrawal-from-afghanistan

The end of the Afghan conflict—and the manner in which it ended—is significant, but it will take time for its implications to come into focus.

on military strategy, defense policy, irregular warfare, and the Middle East and South Asia. U.S. forces are gone from Afghanistan after 20 years of counterinsurgency and nation-building ... of Defense to reorient toward strategic priorities. Other than the capture of Osama bin Laden and the dismantling of much (but not all) of his organization, the U.S. failed to achieve its aims

To Counter Domestic Extremism, Avoid Extremism

/our-media/indepth/2021/04/to-counter-domestic-extremism-avoid-extremism

While concerns about the threat of terrorism have dominated conversations about national security for nearly two decades now, the nature of the threat to Americans has slowly been shifting.

via legislation and policy. There is an urgent need to address both types of violence, but the problem of structurally and systemically violent systems is different from the problem of violent extremism ... . It will be tempting, as we see our neighbors and colleagues and relatives on trial, to judge them based on their intentions. This is, in fact, already happening, as a defense attorney for a woman arrested