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Analytic Framework for Emulating Russian Decision Making

/analyses/2017/analytic-framework-for-emulating-russian-decision-making

The purpose of this report is to propose an analytical framework for emulating Russian decision-making in the national security realm. The framework is paired with a methodology that allows the user to systematically examine what Russian decision- making would look like in response to a foreign policy crisis. The framework is presented in the first section and then applied to three potential crisis scenarios in Eastern Europe. The analytical structure presented is meant to be used as a guideline. It offers potential answers, tools, and a systematic method for emulation that allows users to formulate decision-trees for Russian actions on the basis of reasonable assumptions about how Russia might act in various situations. The final product can be further developed and refined on the basis of observation of Russian actions in future interactions with its adversaries and behavior in crisis situations.

, and over the horizon goals that influence short term decision-making. They are rooted and derived from three principal Russian foreign policy motivations: maximizing security which results in pursuit of extended defense, maximizing power, reflected in the quest for regional hegemony, and maintaining great power status in the international system, a fixation that shapes foreign policy outlooks ... to a foreign policy crisis. The framework is presented in the first section and then applied to three potential crisis scenarios in Eastern Europe. The analytical structure presented is meant to be used

North Korean Leadership Dynamics

/analyses/2014/north-korean-leadership-dynamics

Kim Jong-il’s death in December 2011 brought about the hereditary transition of power to a third generation. Kim Jong-un assumed the mantle of Supreme Leader.

, and First Chairman of the National Defense Commission. In December 2013, Kim Jong-un violently purged his uncle, Jang Song-taek, in a move that seemingly has accelerated his power consolidation process ... would owe its loyalty directly to him. This patronage system would likely be tied to moves to accommodate the twin regime policy philosophies of “Military First” and “Creating a Strong and Powerful Nation ... responsibilities of his position as Supreme Leader. He would have established his own decision-making processes and would be more directly responsible for policy formulation and execution. He would most likely

Military Dimensions of US China Security Cooperation

/analyses/2010/military-dimensions-of-us-china-security-cooperation

This paper was first presented at the Fifth Annual Conference of the China Maritime Studies Institute at the U.S. Naval War College on 4 – 5 May 2010. It is offered as a CNA paper in advance of the publication of the conference proceedings with the permission of the conference sponsors.

part, U.S.-China security cooperation has been mainly of a political nature and operationalized at a high level of strategic policy coordination. Security cooperation between the two nations has been ... is near nil. Over the course of thirty years of defense relations, only for a period of time during the decade of the 1980s did the two defense-military establishments engage in anything close ... between defense officials on both sides of the Pacific, by domestic politics in both capitals, and by a recurring cycle of suspensions in military relations. Looking to the second decade of the 21st

The Evolution of Gender Integration in the Department of the Navy

/quick-looks/2019/gender-integration-in-the-navy

CNA surveyed the events, policies, and research that surrounded increase in female representation in the Navy and identified three phases of gender integration that delineate the DON’s evolving approach to women’s roles in its forces.

, we identified three phases of gender integration that delineate the DON’s evolving approach to women’s roles in its forces and, ultimately, their contributions to its warfighting missions. Policy ... , leading to increasingly objective approaches to policy questions and analysis. Some of the latest research even turns early assumptions on their heads. The evolution is not yet complete, but a better ...  effect on morale and efficiency? The transitional phase, 1994–2007 , began with the repeal of the combat exclusion laws and the subsequent decision by Secretary of Defense Les Aspin to open surface

Jennifer Griffin

/about-us/leadership/center-for-naval-analyses/jennifer-griffin

and Force Readiness Division, where she oversees a team of researchers who provide grounded analyses to inform resource, process, and policy decisions impacting military and force readiness ... , talent management, compensation, retention, and program evaluation. Previously, Griffin served as director of CNA’s Marine Corps and Defense Workforce Program. There, she oversaw a portfolio of studies for Marine Corps, Army, and Department of Defense sponsors. She also served as CNA’s scientific analyst to the Marine Corps Deputy Commandant of Manpower and Reserve Affairs. Griffin earned

coming in from the cold: PBSUCCESS: The 1954 Coup in Guatemala

/our-media/podcasts/coming-in-from-the-cold/12

In this episode, Operation PBSUCCESS, a covert operation carried out by the CIA that deposed Guatemalan President Jacobo Árbenz. Georgetown University Professor Sean McFate, and CNA’s Eleanore Douglas join Bill to discuss the operation and its implication for the modern security environment.

Douglas join Bill to discuss the operation and its implication for the modern security environment. PBSUCCESS: The 1954 Coup in Guatemala Biographies Sean McFate   is a foreign policy expert, author and novelist. He is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, a Washington DC think tank and a professor of strategy at the National Defense University and Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. He is the author of “The New Rules of War: Victory in the Age of Durable Disorder” Eleanore Douglas   is a Research Analyst at CNA. She specializes in strategy, defense planning

intersections: Issue 6, October 2023

/our-media/newsletters/intersections/issue-6

Intersections, Issue 6, CNA news digest of China’s efforts to acquire Western technology, U.S. and partner efforts to protect technology for national security.

six covers two main stories and the global reactions to each. First, we describe the new PRC critical minerals export restrictions and responses to that policy decision by the European Union (EU), Japan ... , these policies can all be viewed as means for Beijing to pursue self-sufficiency in advanced technologies—a key aspect of PRC Military-Civil Fusion efforts to strengthen China’s defense capabilities. New ... subject to a strict authorization process. French authorities later found that Ommic was majority owned by a businessperson linked to the PRC’s defense industry. French authorities suspect

china ai and autonomy report: Issue 14, May 5, 2022

/our-media/newsletters/china-ai-and-autonomy-report/issue-14

The China AI and Autonomy Report, issue 14, is a biweekly newsletter published by CNA, on artificial intelligence and autonomy in China.

temporarily suspended all business activities in Russia and Ukraine. In other Ukraine War-related news, PLA National Defense University Professor Li Minghai analyzes the role of cognitive warfare ... threats posed by this Chinese drone maker." [3] PLA National Defense University (NDU) professor argues that cognitive warfare operations in the Russia-Ukraine War represents the future of warfare ... be improved. Governance and Policy Chinese Academy of Sciences publishes AI principles for climate action. The Chinese Academy of Sciences International Research Center for AI Ethics

china ai and autonomy report: Issue 5, December 16, 2021

/our-media/newsletters/china-ai-and-autonomy-report/issue-5

The China AI and Autonomy Report, issue 5, is a biweekly newsletter published by CNA, on artificial intelligence and autonomy in China.

to conduct research on the “winning mechanism” of intelligent warfare.   An   article   written by a researcher at the PLA's National Defense University's School of National Security called for more ... .   The establishment of these zones is part of a broader 2019 MOST goal to establish around 20 AI innovation and development pilot zones by 2023 (for full text of policy in Chinese see   here ). This national-level goal relies on localities to encourage AI technology development and to conduct policy experiments and social experiments to promote AI innovation in China. In a recent statement just before

Checklist Advances the Ethical Use of Artificial Intelligence

/our-media/press-releases/2022/01-24

CNA introduces tool to implement ethics policies for autonomous systems

to implement Department of Defense policy on ethical artificial intelligence. It consists of 565 questions to be answered by technology developers and commanders before they develop or deploy ... on intelligent autonomous systems that preserve and maximize warfighting effectiveness while conforming to law, policy and ethical principles. The complete report, “ Dimensions of Autonomous