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Russian Military Role in US-Russian Arms Control

/analyses/2024/03/russian-military-role-in-us-russian-arms-control

Russian nuclear policy and arms control decision-making is influenced by the General Staff’s Main Operational Directorate, military leaders, and bureaucrats.

Russian Military Role in US-Russian Arms Control The General Staff’s Throw-Weight: The Russian Military’s Role in and Views of US-Russian Arms Control Russian nuclear policy and arms control ... of bureaucratic analysis and civil-military relations to a small set of primers on negotiating with Russia on arms control. The study answers the following questions: Who are the organizational ... in international arms control negotiations? What do Russian military stakeholders identify as the most salient challenges in future arms control negotiations with the US? Findings Russia's nuclear policy

Lessons on Safety Culture from Private-Sector Safety Executives

/analyses/2024/01/lessons-on-safety-culture-from-private-sector-safety-executives

CNA engaged with senior safety leaders at 21 major corporations and synthesized 14 key findings and leadership actions to improve US military safety.

–level executives who manage and oversee large and complex organizations, which is similar to how Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) develops policy and oversees Department of Defense (DoD) Component policy implementation. The goal of the study is to provide specific recommendations to OSD based on industry best practices to improve the safety culture within the DoD. Study approach ... Technology plays a critical role in reporting Require electronic data collection and reporting EHS data is collected and reported but not often used for predictive analysis Incorporate

Countering Chinese and Russian Alliance Wedge Strategies Write Up

/analyses/2022/06/countering-chinese-and-russian-alliance-wedge-strategies-write-up

In CNA’s National Security Seminar Series, Timothy Crawford, CNA’s David Wallsh, and others discuss efforts by China and Russia to weaken U.S. alliances.

) and coercive (splitting the adversaries through heavy pressure). When contemplating a wedge strategy, Crawford recommends the following policy questions: What is your strategic triangle?  If you ... leverage, but they can also constrain Washington by forcing it to reconcile its policy preferences with those of its partners. Regarding Russia’s and China’s wedging toward the US—the second ... , provides groundwork in developing a typology of wedge strategy blowback, provides the best systematic analysis on the aforementioned second and third faces, and provides thoughtful ideas on how to mitigate

Arctic Prospecting

/analyses/2022/01/arctic-prospecting

We seek to quantify Arctic FDI, including providing a survey of Arctic projects that are Chinese funded in critical industries such as public infrastructure; minerals, oil, and gas; shipping; and telecommunications.

region.”1 The Department of Defense selected CNA to conduct this analysis, for which CNA produced four reports. In this report, we examine the nature and scope of PRC investors’ FDI in the Arctic contextualized by activity by investors in other states.2 Our analysis of economic activity in the Arctic by PRC-based actors assessed the issue from two perspectives: FDI in the Arctic, with FDI ... and more complex set of obstacles to implementing countervailing policy measures. Rebecca Wolfson Cornell Overfield /reports/2022/01/arctic-prospecting.pdf /reports/2022/01

Optimizing Total Force Management

/analyses/2021/07/optimizing-total-force-management

Manpower management (MM) is the term for the set of processes by which the services and other DOD components define and fund—for each operational unit, command staff, and shore/support organization—the numbers and types of job positions that these activities need to perform their missions. Execution of these MM processes across DOD is governed by a combination of the Office of Secretary of Defense (OSD) and service-specific instructions, directives, and policies. In addition to providing methods and policy for determining the number and types of position, they provide guidance for determining the most appropriate labor source (active military, reserve military, civilians, or contracted services) to fill each position. This study examines the MM processes currently used within each DOD component to determine how they integrate DOD’s workforce mix policy and guidance and to identify impediments that prevent or supersede adherence to this guidance.

, the Total Force Manpower and Analysis Directorate (TFM&RS) in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Manpower & Reserve Affairs asked CNA to (1) investigate how DOD’s policy and guidance ... DOD is governed by a combination of the Office of Secretary of Defense (OSD) and service-specific instructions, directives, and policies. In addition to providing methods and policy for determining ... . This study examines the MM processes currently used within each DOD component to determine how they integrate DOD’s workforce mix policy and guidance and to identify impediments that prevent or supersede

Maintaining the US led International Order

/analyses/2020/06/maintaining-the-us-led-international-order

Maritime security operations sustain and enforce the rule of law and good order at sea. Yet in an era of great power competition (GPC), do those activities support national strategy? This paper offers a structure for answering that question, placing maritime security in the context of GPC by describing competition as a function of control for the international system. The framework introduced in this paper demonstrates that maritime security is an important component of maintaining a system that benefits US security and prosperity. The framework also shows that there are two roles for maritime security in GPC—avoiding corrosion of the US-led system by great powers and avoiding corrosion caused by lesser powers. These two approaches have different implications for Navy deployment, procurement, and employment policy. Consequently, although our analysis suggests that maritime security is integral to GPC, its roles can vary, pulling resources in divergent directions according to policy priorities.

powers and avoiding corrosion caused by lesser powers. These two approaches have different implications for Navy deployment, procurement, and employment policy. Consequently, although our analysis suggests that maritime security is integral to GPC, its roles can vary, pulling resources in divergent directions according to policy priorities. Great power status reflects a state’s outsized stake ... ? If so, how? And what does that mean for Navy policy as the force faces ongoing pressure to prepare for high-intensity conflict? Competitors and competition in GPC To answer these questions

Improving the DOD Manpower Management Workforce

/analyses/2020/07/improving-the-dod-manpower-management-workforce

The process for determining and validating requirements, associated manpower, and the workforce mix necessary to achieve an organization’s mission requires specialized knowledge, skills, and abilities. Unlike other career fields, however, there is no common training or certification process that ensures minimum standards and competencies among personnel performing manpower functions. This project examines whether the goal of common training and standards for all personnel performing manpower management (MM) functions in DOD is achievable and desirable. We find evidence that there are MM training gaps and inefficiencies in DOD and that, in general, MM functions are similar enough to allow standardized training and education. The data necessary to show that improving the quality of MM workforces will improve MM processes and outcomes is lacking, however. We recommend that DOD collect the necessary data to further examine the impact of MM workforce quality on MM outcomes and processes.

performing MM functions in DOD is achievable and desirable. Combining information collected from past studies and policy documents, subject matter expert (SME) discussions with manpower experts throughout DOD, and position data analysis, we explore who is performing MM in DOD, how they are trained, and the KSAs necessary to perform MM functions. We then explore whether there is sufficient overlap ... the data necessary to continue analysis of whether a DOD- wide MM training and education program is desirable. This includes performing a manpower requirements determination (MRD) study of the DOD MM

Use of Predictive Analytics

/analyses/2020/10/use-of-predictive-analytics

This issue brief is a product created through a partnership between BJA and CNA. The Using Analytics to Improve Officer Safety work examines granular incident data from 2015–2019 from several local law enforcement agencies to identify incident characteristics (characteristics specific to the incident and related to officer tactical response) associated with officer assaults, injuries, and line-of-duty deaths. Using machine learning techniques, CNA is producing a risk assessment model to link incident characteristics with officer safety outcomes. This work also entails working with participating agencies to identify best practices and recommendations to reduce risks to officer safety in the line of duty.

. Policing is an evolving field; law enforcement agencies are being asked to do more with limited resources, forcing agencies and their relevant stakeholders (e.g., policy makers, other justice system ... victims of crimes. Predictive analytics builds on traditional crime analysis practices (e.g., identification of crime trends and patterns). In addition to identifying crime trends and patterns based ...  analysts, policy makers, and researchers) interested in learning more about the role of predictive analytics in police operations. Specifically, this brief offers the following: Summarizes the use

Use of Safety Equipment in Correctional Facilities

/analyses/2019/04/use-of-safety-equipment-in-correctional-facilities

This study of prison safety equipment in 7 facilities and assaults and injuries finds correctional officer safety depends on training, attitude, and equipment.

types used in federal prisons. Correctional officers working within the secure perimeter of BOP institutions are generally required to carry a radio, body alarm, and keys while on duty. BOP policy also ... . However, the data collection and analysis methods used in the GAO study had two limitations. First, the 14 state departments of corrections the GAO surveyed were selected non-randomly ... determine the effectiveness of safety equipment in a sample of correctional facilities, along with a content analysis of policies and procedures related to correctional officer safety equipment

Redefining Human Control

/analyses/2018/03/redefining-human-control

This report examines the issue of human control with regard to lethal autonomy, an issue of significant interest in United Nations discussions in the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) forum. We analyze this issue in light of lessons and best practices from recent U.S. operations. Based on this analysis, we make the case for a wider framework for the application of human control over the use of force. This report recommends that CCW discussions currently focusing on process considerations, such as human control, should instead focus on outcome—namely, mitigation of inadvertent engagements. This allows consideration of a more complete set of benefits and risks of lethal autonomy and better management of risks. The report also describes best practices that can collectively serve as a safety net for the use of lethal autonomous weapons. It concludes with concrete recommendations for how the international community can more effectively address the risk of inadvertent engagements from lethal autonomy.

. Based on this analysis, we make the case for a wider framework for the application of human control over the use of force. This report recommends that CCW discussions currently focusing on process ... in human control, particularly over the final engagement decision—the trigger pull. Drawing upon CNA’s long history of analyzing military operations, we employ empirical analysis of recent ... civilians. Fortunately, these empirical insights point the way toward a more comprehensive solution: a safety net woven from best practices in targeting, policy and testing, with the consideration