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Personnel Cost Minimization

/analyses/2019/04/personnel-cost-minimization

On average, female enlisted sailors have lower continuation rates than male sailors, but the size of the difference varies by enlisted management community (EMC) and years of service. To fill requirements as the female share of accessions increases, the Navy can increase the overall number of accessions, increase retention bonuses, or both. The choices generate different costs for each EMC that depend on the required accession qualifications (e.g., recruiting effort and training intensity/time), the EMC billet structure, and the size of the gender differences in continuation rates. We present a prototype stochastic inventory projection model that helps make two main decisions for each of 5 EMCs independently: (1) number of accessions and (2) selective reenlistment bonus (SRB) levels. For different levels of the female share of accessions, the model minimizes cost while meeting manning requirements. We then employ a second cost minimization routine (i.e., a bi-level optimization) to find the costminimizing solution across the five EMCs. If expanded to all EMCs, the model could provide analytic support for finding cost-minimizing accession and SRB plans.

to a onelevel increase in SRB can vary by EMC and follows results based on previous CNA research. Our modeling and optimization approach proceeds in two stages. First, we employ the grid randomized

Military Family Guidebook SNAP

/analyses/2019/04/military-family-guidebook-snap

The 13th Quadrennial Review of Military Compensation’s (QRMC)’s Presidential charter directed the QRMC to “survey the usage of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits, as well as any other supplemental sources of income or support you deem significant, by military members on active service and their families, and consider the results of the review in assessing the adequacy of overall military compensation.” This guidebook describes basic eligibility criteria for SNAP; the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC); and the National School Lunch Program (NSLP). It also contains information about how servicemember pay is treated for eligibility purposes.

/centers-and-divisions/cna/rfr/marine-corps-and-defense-workforce-program DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited. ADMINISTRATIVE OR OPERATIONAL USE: To protect

Promoting Civilian Protection during Security Assistance

/analyses/2019/05/promoting-civilian-protection-during-security-assistance

For four years, the United States provided the Saudi-led coalition with military equipment and assistance used in its campaign in Yemen. During that time, the US has wrestled with and debated both the legality and wisdom of its support. After four years of conflict in Yemen, the US should be asking: what lessons can be learned from four years of support to the Saudi-led coalition? In light of the significant civilian protection concerns seen in Yemen, is there a way to get better outcomes from security assistance activities? This report aims to answer those questions. We analyze US support to the Saudi-led coalition and identify two gaps in policy and information, respectively. We also examine the timely issue of better protecting health care in the midst of armed conflict. In this report, we provide a policy framework for including civilian protection considerations as part of security assistance.

/IRM-2019-U-019749-Final.pdf /reports/2019/05/IRM-2019-U-019749-Final.png /reports/2019/05/yemen.png Countering Threats and Challenges /centers-and-divisions/cna/rsp/countering-threats-and-challenges

Russia Venezuela Defense Cooperation

/analyses/2019/06/russia-venezuela-defense-cooperation

In this paper, Russian defense industry and arms trade expert Sergey Denisentsev looks at the history, current state, and outlook for defense cooperation between Russia and Venezuela. He notes that before the arrival of Hugo Chávez, Venezuela was not among the Russian defense customers. The attempted coup in 2002 and the ensuing restrictions on sales of US weaponry to the country opened up the Venezuelan defense market to Russian suppliers. This paper reviews the Russian arms transfers that enabled a major modernization of the Venezuelan arms forces under Chávez. Those transfers, however, came to an almost complete halt after Chavez died and an economic crisis broke out in Venezuela in 2013. The latest bout of political crisis that began in January 2019 has given a new lease of life to Russian-Venezuelan defense cooperation. That cooperation no longer involves large weapons contracts, but Russia is providing technical support and advice to the Venezuelan military and security services.

in Figure 1). Sergey Denisentsev /reports/2019/06/IOP-2019-U-020309-Final.pdf /reports/2019/06/IOP-2019-U-020309-Final.png /reports/2019/06/maduro.png Russia Studies /centers-and-divisions/cna/rsp

Russias Black Sea Fleet

/analyses/2019/06/russias-black-sea-fleet

Today, the Black Sea Fleet appears to be a more flexible and multipurpose naval formation. Its area of responsibility has evolved and is focused on the greater Mediterranean region from the Caspian to the Levant.

Russia Studies /centers-and-divisions/cna/rsp/russia-studies Distribution: Distribution is unlimited. Public Release. 6/5/2019 36 IOP-2019-U-020190-Final

Feasibility of Parental Leave

/analyses/2019/07/feasibility-of-parental-leave

This study examines the implications of offering service members noncontinuous caregiver leave (to care for infants or newly adopted children). House Report 115-676 directed the Secretary of Defense to submit a report assessing the feasibility of flexible parental leave. Policy subject matter experts and commanders across the Department of Defense provided key policy and operational implications. Before implementing a noncontinuous caregiver leave policy, we recommend (1) identifying the needs that can be satisfied by noncontinuous caregiver leave that are not met by other time-off options, (2) considering various types of flexible policies, and (3) assessing the benefits and drawbacks from two recent applications of noncontinuous caregiver leave (2015–2016 Department of the Navy policy and the current US Coast Guard parental leave policy). Taken together, these recommendations will increase the likelihood that any policy change will meet service member needs while balancing mission requirements.

/DRM-2019-U-020318-Final.PNG /reports/2019/07/holding%20baby.PNG Marine Corps and Defense Workforce Program /centers-and-divisions/cna/rfr/marine-corps-and-defense-workforce-program DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A Approved

Proxy Warfare

/analyses/2019/07/proxy-warfare

Proxy warfare—that is, conflict in which a “major power instigates or plays a major role in supporting and directing to a conflict but does only a small portion of the actual fighting itself”—is receiving new attention from policymakers, analysts, and practitioners. This study uses a series of four case studies on US involvement in proxy war (the “Secret War” in Laos, the Contras in Central America, the African Union Mission in Somalia, and the Syrian Defense Forces) to develop a set of key themes. These themes, in turn, form the basis of a set of rules of thumb to guide senior decisionmakers as they contemplate the future use of proxy forces. Finally, this report discusses implications for U.S. Special Operations Forces, which are likely to play an increasingly important role in supporting U.S. proxies.

/DRM-2019-U-020227-1Rev.pdf /reports/2019/07/DRM-2019-U-020227-1Rev.png /reports/2019/07/girl%20soldier.png Countering Threats and Challenges /centers-and-divisions/cna/rsp/countering-threats-and-challenges

AI Safety Navy Action Plan

/analyses/2019/10/ai-safety-navy-action-plan

In light of the Navy’s stated commitment to using AI, and given the strategic importance of AI safety, we provide the Navy with a first step towards a comprehensive approach to safety. We use a risk management approach to frame our treatment of AI safety risks: identifying risks, analyzing them, and suggesting concrete actions for the Navy to begin addressing them. The first type of safety risk, being technical in nature, will require a collaborative effort with industry and academia to address. The second type of risk, associated with specific military missions, can be addressed in a combination of military experimentation, research, and concept development to find ways to promote effectiveness along with safety. For each types of risk, we use examples to show concrete ways of managing and reducing the risk of AI applications. We then discuss institutional changes that would help promote safety in the Navy’s AI efforts.

Lewis /reports/2019/10/DOP-2019-U-021957-1Rev.pdf /reports/2019/10/DOP-2019-U-021957-1Rev.png /reports/2019/10/keep%20calm.png Special Activities and Intelligence /centers-and-divisions/cna/ow

Thrift Savings Plan Distribution

/analyses/2019/10/thrift-savings-plan-distribution

The Blended Retirement System aims to increase Servicemembers’ retirement savings by matching contributions to Thrift Savings Plans by up to five percent of basic pay. This new system applies to Servicemembers who entered uniformed service on January 1, 2018, or later, or to Servicemembers with early entry dates and fewer than 12 years of service who opted in to the new system during 2018. This report analyzes Thrift Savings Plan contributions by Active component Servicemembers, across Services, eligibility categories, and Servicemember characteristics. We find that age, regular military compensation, paygrade, race, and gender are all correlated to varying degrees with retirement savings rates. In particular, older and higher income Servicemembers save at higher rates. We also find substantial differences across Services in the savings patterns of auto-enrollees, suggesting differences in training or messaging. Furthermore, some Servicemembers may be saving inefficiently by reaching the annual limit on TSP contributions prior to December and thereby forgoing matching funds.

%20guys.PNG Marine Corps and Defense Workforce Program /centers-and-divisions/cna/rfr/marine-corps-and-defense-workforce-program DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution

Russian Navy in 21st Century

/analyses/2018/10/russian-navy-in-21st-century

Russian military journalists look at the development of the Russian Navy by studying the causes, contradictions, and consequences that affect the navy and the fulfillment of its missions.

/centers-and-divisions/cna/rsp/russia-studies Distribution unlimited. Specific authority contracting number: G-17-54950. 54 IOP-2018-U-018268-Final