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Chapter 2:

Geography

The percentages of recruits from some census regions of the United States have remained fairly stable since the inception of the volunteer force. However, as Figure 2.10 illustrates, substantial shifts have taken place in other regions. The percentage of accessions from the Northeast dropped 8 points from a high of 22 percent in FY 1977 to a low of less than 14 percent in FY 2001. The proportion of accessions from the South increased 9 percentage points from 34 percent in FY 1985 to 43 percent in FY 1995. In FY 2001, 42 percent of new recruits were from the South.

Figure 2.10. NPS accessions by geographic region, FYs 1973-2001.
Figure 2.10. NPS accessions by geographic region, FYs 1973-2001.

Changes in geographical representation are related to factors such as shifts in demographic patterns, unemployment, college enrollment, and employment compensation rates, which vary widely across regions of the country.[Footnote 38] Obviously, no one factor can explain variations in enlistment rates between different sections of the country; they are more likely attributable to a wide array of economic, social, and demographic factors.

Table 2.10 presents FY 2001 accession statistics by geographic region, division, and state. The third and fourth columns show percentages of accessions and percentages of the 18- to 24-year-old civilian population, respectively, in each area. The fifth column presents military/civilian representation ratios—the percentage of enlisted accessions divided by the percentage of civilians in each area. A representation ratio of 1.00 means that the area has the same proportion of accessions as of the youth population—for example, 8 percent of all recruits and 8 percent of all youth aged 18-24. A ratio of less than 1.00 means that relatively few youth in an area enlist in the military, while a ratio of more than 1.00 indicates above-average market penetration. The last two columns of the table present the percentages of high-quality accessions (high school graduates in AFQT Categories I-IIIA) and mean AFQT scores for each area.

Table 2.10. Selected Statistics for FY 2001 NPS Accessions by Region,
Division, and State, and Civilians 18-24 Years Old
CENSUS REGION CENSUS DIVISION STATE
Area's Contribution
of All NPS Accessions
Area's
Percent of
All NPS Accessions
Area's Percent of All 18- to 24-Year-Olds

Represen-
tation
Ratio
Percent of
High-Quality Accessions*
Mean
AFQT Percentile
NORTHEAST REGION
25,298
14.0
17.3
0.8
57.1
59.0
New England Division
5,448
3.0
4.3
0.7
59.2
60.4
Maine
916
0.5
0.4
1.2
59.5
60.1
New Hampshire
668
0.4
0.4
0.9
64.4
63.8
Vermont
264
0.1
0.2
0.7
64.4
63.9
Massachusetts
1,967
1.1
2.1
0.5
58.6
60.1
Rhode Island
376
0.2
0.3
0.7
58.0
59.6
Connecticut
1,257
0.7
0.9
0.7
56.3
58.7
Middle Atlantic Division
19,850
11.0
13.0
0.8
56.5
58.6
New York
9,520
5.3
6.4
0.8
54.1
58.0
New Jersey
3,750
2.1
2.6
0.8
55.1
57.4
Pennsylvania
6,580
3.6
4.0
0.9
60.6
60.3
NORTH CENTRAL REGION
36,906
20.4
22.6
0.9
60.5
60.4
East North Central Division
26,228
14.5
15.9
0.9
59.9
60.1
 Ohio
7,251
4.0
3.9
1.0
60.3
60.4
Indiana
3,579
2.0
1.9
1.0
63.6
61.4
Illinois
7,112
3.9
4.6
0.9
56.4
58.5
Michigan
5,496
3.0
3.5
0.9
58.9
59.7
Wisconsin
2,790
1.5
1.9
0.8
65.0
62.4
West North Central Division
10,678
5.9
6.7
0.9
62.2
61.3
Minnesota
1,944
1.1
1.7
0.6
62.2
62.5
Iowa
1,401
0.8
1.0
0.8
66.5
62.7
Missouri
3,630
2.0
1.9
1.1
59.2
59.8
North Dakota
379
0.2
0.2
0.9
69.9
63.9
South Dakota
583
0.3
0.3
1.2
62.4
61.0
Nebraska
1,085
0.6
0.7
0.9
64.2
61.2
Kansas
1,656
0.9
1.0
0.9
61.7
61.2
SOUTH REGION
77,565
42.9
35.1
1.2
55.8
57.8
South Atlantic Division
38,220
21.1
17.2
1.2
56.1
57.8
Delaware
443
0.2
0.3
0.9
57.8
58.8
Maryland
3,643
2.0
1.7
1.2
58.0
57.9
District of Columbia
203
0.1
0.2
0.5
38.9
53.1
Virginia
5,363
3.0
2.1
1.4
55.5
58.6
West Virginia
1,321
0.7
0.7
1.1
52.2
56.6
North Carolina
5,432
3.0
2.6
1.2
57.9
58.4
South Carolina
3,485
1.9
1.3
1.5
52.5
55.7
Georgia
5,909
3.3
3.0
1.1
53.5
56.8
Florida
12,421
6.9
5.3
1.3
58.0
58.5
East South Central Division
12,119
6.7
6.3
1.1
53.3
56.9
Kentucky
2,259
1.2
1.4
0.9
55.6
58.0
Tennessee
3,505
1.9
2.1
0.9
56.8
59.1
Alabama
4,054
2.2
1.8
1.2
52.2
56.3
Mississippi
2,301
1.3
1.0
1.3
47.5
53.7
West South Central Division
27,226
15.0
11.6
1.3
56.5
58.l
Arkansas
2,088
1.2
1.0
1.2
53.8
56.8
Louisiana
4,159
2.3
1.8
1.3
50.4
54.6
Oklahoma
2,936
1.6
1.3
1.3
56.2
58.6
Texas
18,043
10.0
7.6
1.3
58.2
59.0
WEST REGION
41,198
22.8
25.0
0.9
58.3
59.5
Mountain Division
13,574
7.5
7.0
1.1
58.8
60.4
Montana
1,084
0.6
0.3
1.9
61.2
62.0
Idaho
1,134
0.6
0.5
1.2
61.2
62.6
Wyoming
500
0.3
0.2
1.7
63.8
62.2
Colorado
2,674
1.5
1.7
0.9
60.3
61.9
New Mexico
1,784
1.0
0.6
1.6
52.0
56.5
Arizona
3,745
2.1
2.l
1.0
58.3
59.8
Utah
1,070
0.6
1.0
0.6
62.4
61.6
Nevada
1,583
0.9
0.6
1.4
57.5
59.8
Pacific Division
27,624
15.3
18.1
0.8
58.0
59.0
Washington
4,241
2.3
2.3
1.0
61.4
62.9
Oregon
2,519
1.4
1.1
1.2
60.6
62.4
California
19,457
10.8
14.0
0.8
56.9
57.7
Alaska
638
0.4
0.2
1.5
63.2
62.9
Hawaii
769
0.4
0.4
1.0
55.3
55.4
Total (50 STATES + D.C.)
180,967**
100.0
100.0
1.0
57.5
58.9

Columns may not add to total due to rounding.
*High-quality accessions are high school graduates who score at or above the 50th percentile on the AFQT. This column is the number of high-quality accessions in area divided by the total number of accessions in area.
**Does not include 2,009 recruits from the territories and unknowns.
Source: Civilian data from Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey File, October 2000 - September 2001.

The South region had the greatest ratio of enlistees (1.2). The West South Central division had the strongest representation (1.3). The Northeast region had a representation ratio of 0.8 and the North Central and West regions had ratios of 0.9.

Slightly more than half of the states had representation ratios of 1.0 or more. These included: Maine in the Northeast; Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, and South Dakota in the North Central; all states except Utah, Colorado, and California in the West; and all states except Kentucky, Tennessee, Delaware, and the District of Columbia in the South. Among all states, the ratios ranged from a low of 0.5 in Massachusetts and the District of Columbia to a high of 1.9 in Montana.

The sixth column of Table 2.10 shows the proportion of high-quality accessions by geographical area. There were only minor differences by region in FY 2001. The proportion of high-quality accessions by region ranged from a low of 56 percent in the South to a high of 61 percent in the North Central region. Differences across divisions were somewhat larger. Approximately 9 percentage points separated the East South Central and West North Central divisions. Differences at the state level were still larger, ranging from 39 percent in the District of Columbia to 69 percent in North Dakota.

The last column of Table 2.10 shows the mean AFQT score by each geographical area. Occasionally, interest has been expressed in using AFQT scores as an indicator of the performance of state educational systems. AFQT statistics are not particularly suitable for this purpose for several reasons. As a sample of youth in a state, ASVAB test-takers reflect a number of selection biases, the total effect of which is unknown. Those who take the test as part of the enlistment process exclude many students who intend to enroll in college, prospects who fail the enlistment screening test, and youth who do not have an interest in military enlistment. Therefore, youth who take the ASVAB should not be presumed to be representative of the communities or school systems from which they are drawn. Even without the biases, it would be difficult to determine how much the test scores reflect differences in school performance from state to state, or how much they reflect other state characteristics, such as social composition and economic conditions. In sum, while the ASVAB is an excellent instrument for the purposes for which it was designed, it does not provide valid state-by-state school performance data.

Nevertheless, AFQT scores by state may be of interest for purposes other than assessing school system performance. The AFQT figures in Table 2.10 reflect the mean AFQT percentile scores for accessions in each state. Percentiles displayed in Table 2.10 are all above 50 because low-scoring applicants are screened out.

[Footnote 38]  Kostiuk, P.F., Geographic Variations in Recruiting Market Conditions (Alexandria, VA: Center for Naval Analyses, 1989). [back to paragraph]

 

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